Throughout the playoffs, Model 284 is making predictions using our PML model. You can find a brief overview of the model here and a full methodology here.
Continue reading NLDS Predictions: PML 2017
Team Defense Projections – Week 5
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 5
ALDS Predictions: PML 2017
Throughout the playoffs, Model 284 is making predictions using our PML model. You can find a brief overview of the model here and a full methodology here.
Continue reading ALDS Predictions: PML 2017
QB Fantasy Predictions – Week 5
Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 5 of 2017. Note that players who have yet to play 7 NFL games are not included in our predictions.
NFL Predictions – Week 5
The article below gives our models’ predictions for Week 5 matchups of the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Week 5
MLB Wild Card Preview: PML 2017
Last year, on my personal blog, I posted about a model I created for evaluating baseball teams and predicting games. I’ve re-run this model for the 2017 season, and will use it to predict games and series throughout the playoffs, so make sure to keep checking back! If you’re interested in the full methodology, I’ve posted it here. For a quick look at how the model shakes out for the 2017 season, look here.
Rating Pitchers and Offenses: PML 2017
Last year, on my personal blog, I posted about a model I created for evaluating baseball teams and predicting games. I’ve re-run this model for the 2017 season, so let’s take a look at the results! Be sure to check back throughout the playoffs, as I’ll use this model to predict games and series throughout the playoffs. I’ve already posted wild card PML predictions.
A Poisson Maximum Likelihood Model for prediction and evaluation of MLB teams and pitchers
This article was originally published in 2016 at jackoliverwerner.wordpress.com.
Introduction
Sports are all about matchups: two teams battling it out on the court, rink, or field until one side emerges the winner. Head-to-head matchups are an especially prominent component of baseball. The game is an overarching matchup of one team against another, but it contains smaller competitions: a pitcher and a catcher trying to outscheme an opposing hitter, a second baseman playing cat-and-mouse to hold a runner close to the bag, or a starting pitcher with a scissors trying to get out of wearing throwback jerseys.
Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 4
And we’re back, with week 4 of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.
Man vs Model: NFL Week 4
Last week was a tough one for me. I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong 4 out of 6 times. I’d like to see the model take that kind of responsibility for its’ mistakes. I guess I’m just the bigger of the two men in this scenario. So after last week, the model and I are back in a deadlock and it’s time for me to dust myself off, look myself in the mirror, and get right back on the horse. So let’s get this thing started.