This year’s class of players entering the NFL draft lacks real star power at the Wide Receiver position. At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a cant-miss player like a Julio Jones or Calvin Jonson. However, it’s important to remember that the most dominant receiver in the game today, Antonio Brown, was considered a below average prospect prior to the 2010 draft, and wasn’t picked until the 6th round, after 21 (!) wide receivers already went off the board. It is certainly possible there is another hidden gem hiding in this years crop of Wide Receivers.
To use the Combine Tool, enter the name of a player and click go. The charts display that player’s scores in the 6 main NFL Combine drills: 40-yard dash, Broad Jump, Vertical Jump, Shuttle Run, 3 Cone Run, and Bench Press. The Yellow distribution curves show the distribution of other players’ scores from the selected player’s position. The numbers above each chart are the given player’s score for the drill and the percentile that that score falls in relative to other players at that position. The data comes from www.pro-football-reference.com and nflcombineresults.com. Our sample consists of all NFL Combine Invitees from 2005 – 2018. Look up some current and former players, or some players that will be coming off the board in this year’s draft!
Continue reading NFL Combine Tool
Ever since the first Olympic games were recorded in 760 B.C., sports have had an important social component in society. Whether its Baseball in Japan, Soccer in England, or Hockey in Canada, it’s almost impossible to live in a major sports market without being somehow affected by the local sports. While these celebrations of competition and the strive for excellence have brought neighbors together for centuries, there is another tradition that bonds us in a way that is much stronger: the tradition of complaining about our teams. It doesn’t matter if your team is a dominant force, or a bottom-feeding afterthought; we will always find something to complain about. But is it all warranted? Surely there are teams whose suffering has afforded their fans the right to complain more than all the others. In this week’s My Model Monday, I attempt to quantify the factors that lead to this allowance of complaining for each NFL team, and rank each fan base on their comparative level of what I like to call “complain-ability.”
Continue reading My Model Monday: NFL Team Complain-Ability
The article below gives our models’ predictions for the final game of the 2017 NFL season, Super Bowl 52. For more detailed examples of how to interpret our models, see last week’s article. Note that all of our numbers adjust for the fact that the game is at a neutral site.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Super Bowl 52
In this week’s installment of My Model Monday, I take a shot at quantifying home-field advantage for NFL teams and unpacking exactly what goes into that advantage.
Continue reading My Model Monday: NFL Home-Field Advantage
The article below gives our models’ predictions for the Conference Championship matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Conference Championships
Below is a table of our 2017 NFL Playoff Simulation and Elo Ratings (heading into the Conference Championship games). Tune in for weekly updates to these figures throughout the 2017 NFL Playoffs Season. Our NFL Season Simulator Methodology and Elo Rating Methodology articles provide further explanation in how we calculate the probabilites of each team making it to each round of the playoffs as well as our Elo Ratings, respectively.
The article below gives our models’ predictions for divisional playoff matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Divisional Round
The article below gives our models’ predictions for playoff matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Wild Card Round
Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 17 of 2017.
QB Model Background
Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.
To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.
Week 17 Projections
As always, Week 17 provides unique situations with certain teams vying for playoff spots, and others vying for a better draft pick. As of Thursday, here are some helpful lists for Week 17 QBs:
Team Needs a Win: Tom Brady (NE), Cam Newton (CAR), Matt Ryan (ATL), Russell Wilson (SEA), Philip Rivers (LAC), Tyrod Taylor (BUF), Joe Flacco (BAL), Marcus Mariota (TEN), Case Keenum (MIN), Drew Brees (NO).
Tom Brady has been on one of the worst runs of his career. Over the last 5 games, he has turned the ball over 7 times and thrown only has 8 TDs. This week provides a chance for Brady to clean things up against the Jets. His Patriots are still wrapping up the 1st seed, so you should see the starters for at least the majority of the game. The Jets are allowing 18.5 points per game to QBs, which is right on par with Brady’s 18.7-season average and our model’s 17.9 point projection. You can expect a high floor performance from Tommy Terrific.
Former fantasy MVP candidate Russell Wilson has fallen off a cliff over the past two games. After putting up 19 or more points in every game from Week 7-14, Wilson disappointed with 26.2 points total in his last 2 games. This week, the Model projects he will return to form as QB3. The Seahawks will need him to do so, as they are still trying to lock up a playoff spot in Week 17. It will we tough though, as the Seahawks are playing the Cardinals who have been playing well against QBs as of late, ranking 26th in FPAE vs. QBs.