Round 1 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all 1st Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

Win Probability & Spread Predictions

For each game, “Team1 Win Prob” represents our model’s probability that Team1 (the better-seeded team) wins the game. Probabilities below 50 are predictions that Team2 will win the game. The “284 Spread” is our model’s prediction of how many points Team1 will win by (for both Vegas and 284 Spreads, negative values indicate Team1 is favored, while positives indicate Team2 is favored). The “Team1 Cover Prob” is our model’s probability that Team1 covers the Vegas Spread. A Cover Prob below 50 favors Team2 to cover (and above 50 favors Team1 to cover). Note that our 284 Spread and Cover Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting Team1 covers and the other predicts Team2 covers):

Team 1Team 2Team1
Win Prob
Vegas
Spread
284
Spread
Team1
Cover Prob
1 Virginia16 UMBC93-21-1565
8 Creighton9 Kansas St28-1+249
5 Kentucky12 Davidson70-5-354
4 Arizona13 Buffalo74-8.5-358
6 Miami11 Loyola43-1.5-684
3 Tennessee14 Wright St82-12-613
7 Nevada10 Texas74-1-1181
2 Cincinnati15 Georgia St81-13.5-656
1 Xavier16 TX South92-19.5-2483
8 Missouri9 Florida St62+1.5+526
5 Ohio St12 S Dakota St67-7.5-46
4 Gonzaga13 Nc Greens86-12.5-736
6 Houston11 San Diego St81-4-770
3 Michigan14 Montana94-11-1347
7 Texas A&M10 Providence42-3032
2 UNC15 Lipscomb96-19.5-1862
1 Villanova16 Radford86-23.5-2193
8 Virginia Tech9 Alabama23-2+615
5 West Virginia12 Murray St88-10.5-1073
4 Wichita St13 Marshall46-12-372
6 Florida11 St Bon63-5.5-137
3 Texas Tech14 SF Austin65-11-216
7 Arkansas10 Butler73+1.5-236
2 Purdue15 Cal St Full99-20.5-2049
1 Kansas16 Penn94-13.5-1626
8 Seton Hall9 NC St46-2.5-475
5 Clemson12 New Mex St71-5-843
4 Auburn13 Charleston60-9.5-1313
6 TCU11 Syracuse35-4-293
3 Michigan St14 Bucknell81-14.5-1519
7 Rhode Island10 Oklahoma83-2-638
2 Duke15 Iona90-20.5-1258

Over/Under Predictions

For each game, the Vegas Total can be compared to our “284 Total” (our model’s prediction of how many points will be scored in the game) as well as our “Over Prob” (our model’s probability that the game goes over the Vegas Total). An Over Prob prediction below 50 sides with an Under, while a prediction above 50 sides with an Over. Note that our 284 Total and Over Prob models are generated separately, so there will be games where they disagree (e.g., one is predicting over and the other predicts under):

Team 1Team 2Vegas
Total
284
Total
Over
Prob
1 Virginia16 UMBC121.5123.848
8 Creighton9 Kansas St144.5143.728
5 Kentucky12 Davidson143149.715
4 Arizona13 Buffalo158169.785
6 Miami11 Loyola133147.881
3 Tennessee14 Wright St131.5131.123
7 Nevada10 Texas143.5158.494
2 Cincinnati15 Georgia St129.5145.476
1 Xavier16 TX South160165.170
8 Missouri9 Florida St147.5144.731
5 Ohio St12 S Dakota St147159.380
4 Gonzaga13 Nc Greens136150.682
6 Houston11 San Diego St142.5144.271
3 Michigan14 Montana135142.071
7 Texas A&M10 Providence138159.093
2 UNC15 Lipscomb161.5159.045
1 Villanova16 Radford140.5151.979
8 Virginia Tech9 Alabama141.5148.350
5 West Virginia12 Murray St145.5143.411
4 Wichita St13 Marshall166166.060
6 Florida11 St Bon143142.949
3 Texas Tech14 SF Austin137.5160.082
7 Arkansas10 Butler151.5159.278
2 Purdue15 Cal St Full145143.824
1 Kansas16 Penn146.5149.181
8 Seton Hall9 NC St157.5163.576
5 Clemson12 New Mex St133129.639
4 Auburn13 Charleston148144.225
6 TCU11 Syracuse136.516897
3 Michigan St14 Bucknell148164.682
7 Rhode Island10 Oklahoma158164.793
2 Duke15 Iona157.5170.066