Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE)

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, if New Orleans’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values for each position group are shown below and were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).

Week 17

  • The tables below are intended to help identify good matchups – look for green ranks in the right-most columns and avoid red ranks.
  • The “SD” columns represent standard deviations, or the variation in weekly points given up. Target teams with low standard deviations and high FPAE, which are both colored in green
    • For example, HOU vs. QBs has the 5th highest FPAE and 8th lowest FPAE SD (meaning they have consistently given up a lot of points to QBs)
  • “FPA” columns represent raw Fantasy Points Allowed, without adjustment


Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Team Defenses