Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE)

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to each position relative to what their opponents had averaged going into each matchup. For example, if GB’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points heading into the matchup. We give a detailed explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values for each position group are shown below and were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).

Week 17

  • The tables below are intended to help identify good matchups – look for green ranks in the right-most columns and avoid red ranks.
  • The “SD” columns represent standard deviations, or the variation in weekly points given up. Target teams with low standard deviations and high FPAE, which are both colored in green
    • For example, ATL vs. QBs has the 8th highest FPAE and 2nd lowest FPAE SD (meaning they have consistently given up a lot of points to that position)
  • “FPA” columns represent raw Fantasy Points Allowed
  • When calculating FPAE early in the season, games from the prior season are regressed by 25% to more heavily weight this year’s results.


Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Team Defenses