March Madness – 2nd Round Probabilities

The following table displays our predicted probabilities for all 2017 second round games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models give Villanova a 65% chance of beating Wisconsin (and, conversely, Wisconsin a 35% chance of beating Villanova). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. For more on our methodology, click here.

1st Round Recap

In the first round of games, our average probabilities went 27-4-1, and our bracket predictions went 28-4 (to see our full bracket, click here), only missing on Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Creighton, and SMU. Teams with win probabilities of 0.80 or more finished 16-0. To see all of our first round probabilities, click here.

2nd Round Matchups

Seed 1 / Team 1Seed 2 / Team 2Team 1 ProbTeam 2 Prob
1 Villanova8 Wisconsin0.650.35
4 Florida5 Virginia0.420.58
3 Baylor11 USC0.380.62
2 Duke7 South Car0.810.19
1 Gonzaga8 NW0.530.47
4 West-Va.5 Notre Dame0.680.32
3 Fla St11 Xavier0.440.56
2 Arizona7 St. Mary's0.820.18
1 Kansas9 Mich St0.810.19
4 Purdue5 Iowa St0.550.45
3 Oregon11 Rhode I0.890.11
2 Louisville7 Michigan0.290.71
1 UNC8 Arkansas0.640.36
4 Butler12 Middle TN0.100.90
3 UCLA6 Cincinnati0.810.19
2 Kentucky10 Wichita St0.400.60