Below is our Model 284 consensus bracket for the 2021 NCAA Tournament. As you will see from our Game-by-Game Predictions and Tournament Simulation results, our bracket does not necessarily advance our model’s predicted winner for every single game. Rather, we use a combination of (1) our model’s individual game predictions, (2) our tournament simulation results, (3) injuries / other factors not captured by our models, and (4) consideration of public picks – to make sure we are differentiating our bracket enough from the most popular choices. For those interested, here is a bracket filled out purely using raw model output.
Stay tuned to Model 284 throughout the tournament for updated predictions on every game!
Historical Bracket Accuracy
Below is a summary of how our published brackets have performed in previous tournaments (2017-present). We have been utilizing these models dating back to the 2014 tournament, but do not have older predictions documented on the site.