Model 284 Bracket | March Madness 2021

Below is our Model 284 consensus bracket for the 2021 NCAA Tournament. As you will see from our Game-by-Game Predictions and Tournament Simulation results, our bracket does not necessarily advance our model’s predicted winner for every single game. Rather, we use a combination of (1) our model’s individual game predictions, (2) our tournament simulation results, (3) injuries / other factors not captured by our models, and (4) consideration of public picks – to make sure we are differentiating our bracket enough from the most popular choices. For those interested, here is a bracket filled out purely using raw model output.

Stay tuned to Model 284 throughout the tournament for updated predictions on every game!

Historical Bracket Accuracy

Below is a summary of how our published brackets have performed in previous tournaments (2017-present). We have been utilizing these models dating back to the 2014 tournament, but do not have older predictions documented on the site.

Year ESPN
Score
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 Predicted
Champ
Actual
Champ
2017 840 28 8 2 2 1 0 Arizona UNC
2018 570 23 9 2 1 0 0 Purdue Villanova
2019 1020 24 13 5 2 1 0 Gonzaga Virginia
2020
2021 1070 21 7 4 3 2 0 Gonzaga Baylor
Avg 875 24.0 9.3 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.0