NBA Role Probability Model 2016

NBA Role Probability Model is used to predict the likelihood that a given college basketball player becomes an NBA All-Star, Starter, Bench player, or does not make the NBA. The model uses individual college basketball season-long box score statistics, team-level statistics (e.g. strength of schedule), physical measurements, high school scouting ranking, position, and age/experience to predict the probability of each NBA role. For more detail on this model, see here. In the following table, you can find our predicted probabilities for the 2016 NBA Draft prospects landing in each category:

PlayerAll-StarStarterBenchNon NBA
Ben Simmons84.1%13.2%< 1%2.3%
Dejounte Murray47.9%18.1%< 1%35.1%
Wade Baldwin44.8%9.7%31.2%14.3%
Brandon Ingram34.2%27.3%23.2%15.3%
Jaylen Brown30.9%25.9%21.1%22.1%
Kris Dunn30.7%28.5%7.4%33.4%
Denzel Valentine27.8%42.6%18.2%11.4%
Jakob Poeltl25.2%26.3%33.1%15.3%
Kay Felder20.7%39.9%22.2%17.2%
Patrick McCaw20.6%50.8%19.3%9.3%
Chinanu Onuaku18.8%36.4%18.8%26.0%
Henry Ellenson18.1%40.5%28.5%13.0%
Caris LeVert15.8%20.1%32.4%31.7%
Domantas Sabonis13.9%36.7%32.2%17.2%
Brice Johnson12.8%34.8%20.7%31.6%
Pascal Siakam12.0%18.8%31.4%37.8%
Malik Beasley11.2%29.2%22.1%37.4%
DeAndre Bembry11.1%30.8%18.7%39.3%
Tyrone Wallace10.8%17.7%17.0%54.5%
Isaiah Whitehead10.0%19.0%32.4%38.6%
Marquesse Chriss8.7%37.8534.2%19.4%
Stephen Zimmerman8.1%29.0%44.8%18.1%
Buddy Hield7.8%27.3%40.8%24.1%
Joel Bolomboy7.5%11.5%34.9%46.2%
Daniel Hamilton7.4%41.3%17.6%33.7%
Tyler Ulis6.0%33.6%36.9%23.5%
Demetrius Jackson5.7%28.2%36.3%29.8%
Deyonta Davis5.7%23.4%32.0%38.9%
Ben Bentil5.6%17.9%54.5%22.0%
A.J. Hammons5.6%23.0%46.8%24.6%
Malachi Richardson5.0%7.6%23.4%64.0%
Jamal Murray4.2%29.8%39.9%26.0%
Damion Jones3.8%14.8%41.8%39.5%
Diamond Stone3.7%35.0%45.4%15.9%
Abdel Nader2.4%10.9%34.5%52.2%
Malcolm Brogdon2.4%23.4%47.1%27.1%
Isaiah Cousins2.3%10.2%27.5%60.0%
Michael Gbinije2.0%20.3%41.0%36.7%
Georges Niang1.5%46.4%31.0%21.2%
Marcus Paige1.4%9.0%32.6%57.1%
Skal Labissiere1.3%19.5%52.5%26.7%
Taurean Prince0.7%19.8%35.7%43.7%
Kyle Wiltjer0.5%7.8%49.4%42.2%
Jake Layman0.4%26.7%47.5%25.4%

Created by Marc Richards and Jack Werner.