2011 Peak NBA Statline Projection Model

Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) is a model used to project NBA success for college basketball players based upon their individual and team college basketball statistics, physical measurements, high school scouting rankings, and college basketball experience. The Peak NBA Statline Projection model returns a single rating value from 0 to 100. A higher rating value indicates a “better” NBA prospect. We provide a more detailed article outlining how PNSP is formulated here. Below are a few highlights of PNSP’s ratings for the 2011 NBA Draft Class, as well as a full list of PNSP’s top 20 players of the class.


Kyrie Irving ranks as one of the best prospects of all time at any position, and is PNSP’s clear-cut first overall pick in 2011 despite his one injury-riddled season at Duke University. Additionally, PNSP indicated players such as Iman Shumpert, Klay Thompson, and Kawhi Leonard would have successful NBA careers, as well properly picked the better Morris twin (Markieff). Jimmer Fredette was another significant hit for PNSP. PNSP gave Fredette a rating of 36.1, and he has jumped around the from team to team with little success in the NBA.

PNSP did like Derrick Williams at a rating of 87.7, but PNSP also suggests he may not have been as clear-cut of a number 2 pick as everyone originally thought. Furthermore, Brandon Knight was given a rating of 49.1, which could be considered a miss, but he still did not belong above players such as Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, and Isaiah Thomas, who were all ranked above him by PNSP.

PNSP’s analysis of the 2011 NBA Draft shows a fairly strong top end of the draft that is headlined by a generational talent in Kyrie Irving. Note the each player’s actual draft position is shown in parentheses.

Rk Player (Draft pos) School Rating
1 Kyrie Irving (1) Duke 99.7
2 Iman Shumpert (17) Georgia Tech 87.9
3 Derrick Williams (2) Arizona 87.7
4 Klay Thompson (11) Washington State 85.2
5 Markieff Morris (13) Kansas 78.3
6 Kawhi Leonard (15) San Diego State 75.2
7 Alec Burks (12) Colorado 72.7
8 Reggie Jackson (24) Boston College 72.4
9 Kemba Walker (9) UCONN 71.9
10 Tobias Harris (19) Tennessee 69.4
11 Josh Selby (49) Kansas 68.7
12 Jordan Hamilton (26) Texas (Austin) 68.6
13 Josh Harrellson (45) Kentucky 58.6
14 Keith Benson (48) Oakland 58.0
15 Travis Leslie (47) Georgia 56.9
16 Nikola Vucevic (16) USC 54.6
17 Isaiah Thomas (60) Washington 50.6
18 Brandon Knight (8) Kentucky 49.1
19 Shelvin Mack (34) Butler 48.4
20 MarShon Brooks (25) Providence 48.3

*The 2011 NBA draft class was removed from our data and predicted on out-of-sample.

For a detailed explanation of PNSP click Here