ALDS Predictions: PML 2017

Throughout the playoffs, Model 284 is making predictions using our PML model. You can find a brief overview of the model here and a full methodology here.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

The first Division Series game sees the Red Sox heading to Houston to take on the Astros. Both teams are loaded with young talent, so this will be a fun series to keep an eye on. I’ve given probabilities for each game below. For some of the later games, I had to make educated guesses about the pitching matchups. With their high-powered lineup and solid rotation, the Astros are the favorites here. In fact, we have Boston pegged as an underdog in every game except one: a potential matchup between Boston’s Chris Sale and Houston’s Charlie Morton in game 4. The combination of a Cy Young contender on the mound and home-field advantage was enough to put Boston over the top in this game, but the incredible Houston offense held sway in the other predictions. Overall, with these game probabilities, Houston has a 63% chance in this series.

Game 1
Team Pitcher Probability
BOS Chris Sale 47%
HOU Justin Verlander 53%
Game 2
Team Pitcher Probability
BOS Drew Pomeranz 34%
HOU Dallas Keuchel 66%
Game 3
Team Pitcher Probability
HOU Brad Peacock 67%
BOS Rick Porcello 33%
Game 4
Team Pitcher Probability
HOU Charlie Morton 47%
BOS Chris Sale 63%
Game 5
Team Pitcher Probability
BOS Drew Pomeranz 38%
HOU Justin Verlander 62%

Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees

The Yankees made it past the Twins in the AL Wild Card Game, and I don’t want to talk about it. They’re in for a challenge against the reigning AL champion Indians and their historically good pitching staff, though. But the Yankees have a deep rotation as well, and similarly to the other ALDS series, it gives them the advantage in exactly one game. The model gives New York the advantage if the Yankees’ Severino squares off against the Indians’ Josh Tomlin in Yankee Stadium in game 4, if it’s needed. To be fair, the model doesn’t account for Severino’s rough outing on Tuesday. (It wasn’t watching the game. It was busy doing model stuff.) But one bad start shouldn’t change our expectations too much anyway, and maybe Severino’s gotten his playoff jitters out of the way now. In any case, the because they’re the favorites in every other game, we’re giving the Indians a 67% chance of advancing.

Game 1
Team Pitcher Probability
NYY Sonny Gray 38%
CLE Trevor Bauer 62%
Game 2
Team Pitcher Probability
NYY CC Sabathia 40%
CLE Corey Kluber 60%
Game 3
Team Pitcher Probability
CLE Carlos Carrasco 53%
NYY Masahiro Tanaka 47%
Game 4
Team Pitcher Probability
CLE Josh Tomlin 38%
NYY Luis Severino 62%
Game 5
Team Pitcher Probability
NYY Sonny Gray 19%
CLE Corey Kluber 81%