2019 NHL Draft Role Probability Model

Our NHL Draft Role Probability Model uses prospects’ statistical production, physical measurements, league prominence, and team statistics to predict the likelihood that a players assume a specific NHL Role (i.e., First Line / Top Pair, Second Line / 2nd pair defensemen, 3rd Line / 3rd Pair, Fourth Line / 7th defensemen, Two-way player, and Non-NHL player). This Model expands on our NHL Translated PPG model in order to account for variables outside of Points Per Game, such as size, scouting ranks, caliber of leagues played in, etc.

Brief Methodology

The 2019 NHL Draft Role Probability Model uses multinomial logistic regression with six derived classes: First Line / Top Pair, Second Line / 2nd pair defensemen, 3rd Line / 3rd Pair, Fourth Line / 7th defensemen, Two-way player, and Non-NHL player. The classifications were made by hand using some rough guidelines (e.g., Non-NHL players played 0 games played in the NHL), and filling in the gaps where needed. The Model is trained on a couple thousand player data set. Key variables considered include:

  • Age
  • Mean Predicted Points Per Game (via Hockey Translation Factors)
  • Percentage of points on team
  • Caliber of top league played in
  • Height / Weight
  • Position
  • NHL Central Scouting Ranking
  • interaction between Position and Predicted Points Per Game
  • interaction between Height / Weight and Position

Below are the results for roughly 569 2019 draft eligible prospects:

PLAYERPOSLEAGUECSS RANK1ST LINE %2ND LINE %3RD LINE %4TH LINE %TWO WAY %NON NHL %
Jack HughesCUSDP183%13%2%1%0%1%
Kaapo KakkoWLiiga179%14%4%2%0%2%
Cam YorkDUSDP1223%26%23%4%11%13%
Cole CaufieldWUSDP819%34%17%11%6%13%
Mikko KokkonenDLiiga1018%27%28%3%6%18%
Alex TurcotteCUSDP417%20%27%10%13%14%
Domenick FensoreDUSDP6816%10%13%7%13%45%
Arthur KaliyevWOHL714%25%22%14%12%12%
Trevor ZegrasCUSDP611%21%26%10%12%20%
Peyton KrebsCWHL1010%35%35%7%5%9%
Alex NewhookCBCHL1310%20%27%10%13%20%
Ville HeinolaDLiiga410%20%21%8%19%23%
Bowen ByramDWHL210%28%18%9%17%19%
Anttoni HonkaDLiiga229%14%18%10%18%30%
Matthew BoldyWUSDP99%16%18%16%15%25%
Vasili PodkolzinWKHL29%24%12%16%16%24%
Marc Del GaizoDNCAA1348%10%6%1%15%60%
Victor SoderstormDSHL38%17%19%6%21%30%
Bobby BrinkWUSDP197%17%19%10%14%32%
Zachary JonesDUSHL707%10%9%3%15%55%
Nils HoglanderWSHL117%19%27%17%12%16%
Moritz SeiderDDEL67%24%19%11%11%30%
Marshall WarrenDUSDP616%14%6%2%17%55%
Kirby DachCWHL36%14%15%16%13%36%
Dylan CozensCWHL56%8%23%16%17%29%
Alexander YakovenkoDVHL1076%11%9%4%16%55%
Jordan SpenceDMJAHL595%9%5%2%13%65%
Samuel FagemoWSHL205%10%13%14%18%41%
Daniil MisyulDKHL85%13%17%6%21%36%
Janis Jerome MoserDNLA1015%20%13%7%20%35%
Raphael LavoieWQMJHL205%7%6%14%18%51%
Ryan SuzukiCOHL185%13%15%21%13%34%
Henry ThrunDUSDP394%14%15%8%17%41%
Pavel DorofeyevWKHL124%15%15%13%14%39%
Case McCarthyDUSDP774%12%17%8%17%42%
Mike KosterDUSHL694%7%3%1%11%74%
Brayden TraceyWWHL214%10%17%17%19%34%
Kim NousiainenDInternational_Jr524%5%4%2%11%75%
Tobias BjornfotDSHL74%8%18%7%14%51%
Philip BrobergDAllsvenskan53%18%23%11%17%29%
Vladislav FirstovWUSHL233%5%8%8%13%61%
Drew HellesonDUSDP463%13%16%10%18%40%
Robert MastrosimoneWUSDP533%10%11%9%14%52%
Philip TomasinoCOHL143%4%6%20%20%47%
Jakob PelletierWQMJHL273%7%13%6%14%55%
Ben BrinkmanDNCAA1153%7%15%9%23%43%
Nicholas RobertsonCOHL173%12%16%8%9%52%
Santeri AirolaDLiiga / Jr. A SM-liiga1303%7%5%3%13%69%
Thomas HarleyDOHL113%12%18%12%16%39%
Kalle LoponenDInternational_Jr643%6%6%4%12%69%
Yegor AfanasyevWUSHL163%4%7%20%23%43%
Semyon ChistyakovDInternational_Jr163%5%9%2%10%71%
Nando EggenbergerWNLA1272%6%9%13%15%55%
Jayden StrubleDMHSLU16482%6%10%6%11%64%
Simon MackDCCHL1932%3%5%3%7%79%
Billy ConstantinouDOHL582%4%5%4%10%74%
Andrei PribylskyDKHL692%5%2%2%11%78%
Lassi ThomsonDInternational_Jr152%6%7%5%13%66%
Dmitri VoronkovWKHL502%4%5%3%12%73%
Bryce BrodzinskiWUSHL892%6%16%11%17%48%
Alexander PopovicDInternational_Jr562%4%2%1%8%83%
Samuli VainionpaaDLiiga1242%10%13%10%18%48%
Nathan StaiosDOHL1822%4%2%2%8%82%
Connor McMichaelCOHL242%3%5%8%7%75%
Simon GnypDDELNR2%5%4%3%11%74%
Carter BergerDBCHL1572%5%10%7%11%65%
Kirill SlepetsWKHL172%12%15%10%13%47%
Luke BastDAJHL1372%3%3%2%7%82%
John BeecherCUSDP492%6%12%21%20%39%
Ryan SiedemDUSDP1162%8%11%9%16%54%
Tuukka TieksolaWLiiga / Jr. A SM-liiga312%5%9%3%10%71%
Vladislav KolyachonokDOHL312%6%6%6%12%68%
Daniil GutikWInternational_Jr192%3%4%8%12%71%
Mattias NorlinderDAllsvenskan252%6%4%4%13%71%
Joshua ManiscalcoDUSDPNR2%6%9%7%14%62%
Noel HoefenmayerDOHLNR2%6%10%8%13%62%
Blake MurrayCOHL1042%6%18%20%9%44%
Shane PintoWUSHL282%12%12%11%14%49%
Simon LundmarkDSHL212%7%7%7%17%60%
Peetro SeppalaDLiiga1172%6%6%6%15%65%
Grigori GryaznovDMHL702%6%6%6%13%67%
Alex VlasicDUSDP382%12%17%14%18%37%
Artemi KnyazevDInternational_JrNR2%4%3%3%9%78%
Ethan FrischDUSHLNR2%3%5%4%9%77%
Iivari RasanenDInternational_Jr1202%4%8%7%11%69%
Gianni FairbrotherDWHL502%4%6%5%11%72%
David AebischerDInternational_JrNR2%3%4%3%9%78%
Christian LindbergDAllsvenskan1022%12%13%13%18%42%
Valeri OrekhovDKHLNR2%5%4%4%14%70%
Jan MlcakDInternational_Jr1161%4%4%4%9%78%
Ilya NikolayevCMHL91%13%9%13%12%52%
Max CrozierDUSHL851%6%7%7%14%64%
Adam McCormickDQMJHLNR1%3%4%4%9%79%
Jacson AlexanderDWHLNR1%2%2%2%6%86%
Igor UsmanovDVHL761%4%7%6%12%69%
Yannick BruschweilerWNLA601%6%11%19%25%38%
Jackson LaCombeDT1EMBHL361%6%5%5%11%71%
Ryan JohnsonDUSHL331%5%3%3%10%77%
Clay HanusDWHLNR1%3%2%2%7%85%
Anthony AguannoDOHLNR1%3%2%2%7%85%
Nicklas AndrewsDNAHLNR1%2%3%2%7%84%
Alexander KirpichnikovDMHLNR1%3%1%1%7%86%
Christopher GirodayDUSHL1541%5%4%4%12%74%
Alexandre JoncasDQMJHLNR1%2%3%3%6%84%
Christopher Merisier-OrtizDQMJHLNR1%3%2%2%8%83%
Jack YorkDOHL2131%3%5%5%9%76%
Conner McDonaldDWHLNR1%3%5%4%9%77%
Justin BergeronDQMJHL1531%5%5%5%11%74%
Albert LyckasenDInternational_Jr931%3%3%3%8%82%
Albert JohanssonDInternational_Jr371%4%2%3%9%80%
Lukas RubinDInternational_JrNR1%3%4%4%9%77%
Samuel JohannessonDSuperElit891%3%3%3%7%82%
Layton AhacDBCHL621%5%7%7%12%68%
Nathan AllensenDOHL2141%3%3%3%8%82%
Jarrett BakerDQMJHLNR1%3%4%4%9%79%
Alfred BarklundDInternational_JrNR1%4%7%7%12%69%
David No’ÛÎâlD#N/ANR1%4%5%5%10%75%
Premysl SvobodaWCzech421%2%3%2%9%83%
Cole MobergDWHL1361%5%8%8%14%64%
Scott WalfordDWHLNR1%4%7%7%12%70%
Samuel DesgroseilliersDQMJHLNR1%2%1%1%5%90%
Andrew PerrottDOHLNR1%3%5%5%8%78%
Artyom ZhukWMHL511%1%4%6%10%78%
Matej IlencikDInternational_Jr1121%5%6%7%13%68%
Danil ZinovyevWMHLNR1%3%2%2%6%86%
Dmitri TyuvilinDInternational_Jr781%3%2%2%7%85%
Noah LaaouanDQMJHLNR1%3%2%2%7%85%
Kaedan KorczakDWHL321%4%6%6%12%71%
Patrick MoynihanCUSDP731%6%14%12%14%53%
Nikolai BurenovDInternational_Jr751%2%1%1%5%89%
Quinn SchmiemannDWHL941%5%5%5%12%73%
Jocktan ChaineyDQMJHLNR1%3%6%6%9%75%
Sean LarochelleDQMJHL1691%3%1%1%5%89%
Adam SamuelssonDUSDPNR1%5%19%18%14%42%
Ondrej VolrabDInternational_Jr1091%6%8%9%14%62%
Mason MillmanDOHL1251%4%3%4%10%78%
Cooper MooreDMidget881%4%5%5%8%77%
Alexander DaryinWMHL261%4%7%11%7%70%
Sergei SapegoDWHLNR1%4%4%5%11%74%
Tyler SpottDUSHL1841%2%2%2%7%86%
Roman BychkovDInternational_Jr341%3%1%2%6%87%
Ronnie AttardDUSHL761%4%8%8%13%66%
Jakob BondessonDSHLNR1%4%3%4%13%75%
Andrej GolianDSlovakia611%6%3%5%14%71%
Matthew RobertsonDWHL261%5%9%10%14%61%
Braden DoyleDUSHL401%3%2%2%8%84%
Michael VukojevicDUSHL551%4%9%9%12%65%
Nikita OkhotyukDInternational_Jr561%3%4%5%9%77%
Lukas PiloDAllsvenskan831%3%3%4%10%79%
Adam WilsbyDSuperElitNR1%3%3%3%7%83%
Nikita SedovDInternational_Jr1861%3%4%5%9%78%
Judd CaulfieldWUSDP671%6%10%15%14%54%
Sven LeuenbergerCNLANR1%8%18%18%17%39%
Simon Le CoultreDInternational_JrNR1%3%3%3%8%83%
Hugo LeufveniusCOHL1611%5%9%25%15%45%
Ludvig HedstromDInternational_Jr361%2%2%2%6%87%
Carl WasseniusWSuperElitNR1%7%11%15%12%54%
Dilan SavenkovDInternationalNR1%3%2%2%8%84%
Santeri HatakkaDInternational_Jr721%3%2%3%8%84%
Atso LehtinenDInternational_JrNR1%3%3%3%8%83%
Jake LeeDWHL1461%3%7%8%10%71%
Vladislav FyodorovWMHL571%1%4%2%8%84%
Henri NikkanenCLiiga321%3%6%9%11%70%
Radek MuzikWSuperElit1001%11%18%12%19%38%
Pontus EnglundDSuperElitNR1%5%5%6%11%71%
Nathan LaroseDQMJHL1941%3%4%5%8%79%
Jan KlodnerDInternational_Jr981%3%1%2%7%86%
Josh NodlerWUSHL861%4%10%13%14%58%
Duncan PenmanDOHLNR1%2%4%4%7%82%
Michal IvanDSlovakiaNR1%3%3%4%9%81%
Yegor ArbuzovDInternational_JrNR1%2%3%3%7%84%
Henrik ClaessonDJ18AllsvenskanNR1%2%2%2%5%87%
Samuel PoulinWQMJHL221%7%12%17%12%51%
Louka HenaultDOHL2161%2%2%3%7%84%
Jack MillarDUSHL1111%5%12%14%15%53%
Maxence GuenetteDQMJHL571%3%3%4%8%81%
Dominik SojkaCInternational_Jr1081%3%8%27%11%52%
Liam RossDOHL1481%3%5%6%10%75%
Antti TuomistoDInternational_Jr151%6%10%14%14%56%
Yegor ChinakhovWInternational_Jr301%1%2%6%11%80%
Ben MeehanDMHSLU161391%3%2%3%6%86%
Alex BrannstamDInternational_JrNR1%2%1%2%5%89%
Eric HjorthDSuperElitNR1%4%6%7%11%72%
Ivan RogovDMHL861%2%2%3%6%85%
Merrick RipponDOHL1581%2%4%5%8%81%
Emil Martinsen LillebergDWJC_20D1A1321%3%4%5%9%77%
Mason SnellDBCHL2121%2%3%4%6%84%
Samuel BolducDQMJHL421%3%8%10%12%66%
Malik AlishlalovDMidget1631%3%5%6%8%77%
Michael VorlickyDUSHL2031%3%3%3%8%83%
Semyon AstashevskyWMHLNR1%1%4%4%9%81%
Jarret TyszkaDWHLNR1%3%5%6%11%75%
Connor HorningDWHL1641%3%5%7%11%74%
Mitchell BrownDWHL1681%2%5%6%9%77%
Samuel SjolundDSuperElit461%3%2%3%7%84%
Isak ForsmanDSuperElitNR1%2%3%4%6%85%
Austen SwanklerCUSHL1091%5%14%17%11%52%
Grayson LaddDOHLNR1%3%2%3%7%84%
Zach UensDOJHL1301%2%3%4%7%83%
Luke KrysDAYHL16UNR1%3%4%5%8%79%
M’ÛÎÇns Kr’ÛÎ_merD#N/ANR1%4%3%5%10%77%
Hunter SkinnerDUSHL1201%4%3%5%11%77%
Jiri SuhradaDInternational_Jr1351%2%2%3%7%84%
Spencer MeierDNCAA1781%4%1%3%9%83%
Mitchell BrewerDOHLNR1%2%4%5%9%79%
John LudvigDWHL1281%2%3%4%7%83%
Filip ForsmarkDSuperElitNR1%2%1%2%5%89%
Jeremie BuchelerDUSHL1141%4%6%8%13%69%
Otto LatvalaDInternational_Jr1151%5%11%14%15%55%
Matthew StruthersCAHLNR1%3%7%17%15%57%
Martin Hugo HasDInternational_Jr381%4%4%6%12%73%
Alexander LundqvistDInternational_Jr591%3%3%4%8%82%
Ilya MironovDInternational_Jr351%3%4%6%10%76%
Michael GildonWUSDP1101%6%13%13%17%51%
Jacob LeGuerrierDOHL920%3%4%6%10%77%
Alexei ProtasCWHL440%1%3%8%5%82%
Kirby ProctorDUSHL1970%3%4%5%10%78%
Jacob GoldenDOHLNR0%2%2%2%5%89%
Adam EdstromCSHL730%1%2%8%8%79%
Nolan FooteWWHL370%4%5%7%12%71%
Adam BeckmanCWHL340%2%5%6%6%81%
Nikita VashchenkoDMHL840%2%2%3%6%86%
Owen LindmarkWUSDP930%6%11%13%14%56%
Danny WeightWUSDPNR0%6%9%10%14%60%
Jacob PaquetteDOHLNR0%2%5%7%9%77%
Cole FraserDOHLNR0%2%3%4%7%83%
Karel PlasekWCzech430%2%2%1%7%89%
Krystof HrabikCCzech1420%2%4%13%11%70%
Jasper RannistoDInternational_Jr2080%2%2%3%7%85%
Wiljami MyllylaWInternational_Jr990%1%2%1%6%90%
Taro JentzschCQMJHL1020%3%13%16%7%61%
Luke ToporowskiWWHL1000%5%31%15%14%34%
Yves StoffelWNLB1290%5%8%7%13%67%
Roman SinitsynDMHL770%2%2%3%6%88%
Chase FelgueirasDAJHL1790%2%3%4%8%82%
Oliver TuranDNAHL1720%2%6%9%12%71%
Emil MalysjevDWHL1920%2%3%4%8%82%
John FarinacciCUSDP350%3%7%10%10%70%
Yegor SokolovWMHLNR0%5%9%17%14%54%
Thomas PelletierDQMJHLNR0%2%3%5%8%83%
Mark KastelicCWHL1320%3%6%20%12%59%
Jackson van de LeestDWHL1380%2%7%12%12%66%
Lukas MacklinWAllsvenskan580%2%5%5%11%77%
Austen KeatingCOHLNR0%2%6%8%7%77%
Luka BurzanCWHL1260%3%6%12%9%70%
Jakub ZurekDInternational_Jr940%2%3%5%9%81%
Keighan GerrieCNAPHL16U1290%3%10%14%9%63%
Tommy PasanenDUSHLNR0%2%5%7%9%77%
Jerry TurkulainenWLiigaNR0%8%13%17%16%46%
Kyle ToppingCWHLNR0%3%9%12%11%65%
Nathan LegareWQMJHL540%5%12%15%13%55%
Alex BeaucageWQMJHL640%4%7%9%12%68%
Yegor MartynovDMHL870%2%2%4%7%85%
William FrancisDUSHL750%2%5%7%10%76%
Alexander DerschDInternational_JrNR0%2%3%5%9%82%
Jonas BrondbergDInternational_JrNR0%2%2%4%9%82%
David TurecekDInternational_JrNR0%2%3%6%10%79%
Dean SchwenningerCNLBNR0%3%10%14%7%66%
Matias MaccelliWUSHL510%4%8%6%13%69%
Nathan DunkleyCOHLNR0%3%9%14%12%62%
Jaxon BellamyDQMJHLNR0%2%2%4%8%83%
Joe CarrollWOHL1010%6%17%14%19%43%
Jacob Gr’ÛÎ_nhagenC#N/ANR0%1%2%10%5%82%
Mason PrimeauCOHL1130%1%4%13%6%76%
Miks TumanovsDMHLNR0%2%2%4%8%84%
Michal TeplyWCzech140%3%8%9%13%67%
Vadim AntipinDMHLNR0%2%2%4%7%84%
Daniel BukacDInternational_JrNR0%2%4%7%9%78%
Nikita AlexandrovCQMJHL290%2%6%9%7%76%
Logan BarlageCWHL1880%1%3%10%6%80%
Albin GreweCSHL130%2%6%11%9%71%
Ethan KeppenWOHL740%4%9%14%14%59%
Yegor SpiridonovCMHL180%1%4%10%7%77%
Reilly WebbDOHLNR0%1%3%5%7%84%
Cade WebberDT1EMBHL870%2%4%7%9%76%
Alexander CampbellCBCHL430%2%5%4%3%85%
Lev StarikovDUSHLNR0%3%4%8%12%72%
Andre LeeCUSHLNR0%1%2%9%6%82%
Oleg ZaitsevCWHL660%2%5%9%7%77%
Zdenek SedlakCMestis1270%2%4%11%7%76%
Eli ZummackCWHLNR0%3%10%12%11%64%
Matthew BrownWNAHLNR0%6%11%10%14%59%
Maxim CajkovicWQMJHL910%4%9%10%13%63%
Marcus KallionkieliWUSHL470%4%7%8%13%69%
Patrik PuistolaWLiiga280%3%5%4%13%74%
Matthew SteinburgCUSHL1330%2%4%9%7%78%
Nikola PasicCSHL880%3%6%8%13%70%
John MaloneWUSHL820%3%7%9%13%68%
Jackson JuttingWNAHL1800%4%10%10%14%61%
Simon HolmstromWSHL / SuperElit270%3%7%8%13%69%
Karl HenrikssonCSHL / SuperElit230%3%9%9%10%69%
Brett LeasonWWHL250%3%6%11%11%70%
Antti SaarelaWLiiga240%4%7%8%15%66%
Wyatt BongiovanniCNCAANR0%2%6%12%9%71%
Liam HawelCOHLNR0%1%2%5%2%90%
Brannon McManusCUSDPNR0%3%7%9%10%72%
Ty GloverCGOJHL2150%1%4%12%6%77%
Dillon HamaliukWWHLNR0%3%5%7%12%72%
Kyle OlsonCWHLNR0%1%4%6%5%83%
Jere InnalaWLiiga820%4%9%7%15%65%
Robert GriffinCMHSLU16NR0%1%5%9%5%80%
Mikhail ShalaginWVHLNR0%2%1%1%7%88%
Quinn OlsonWAJHL1050%5%15%10%17%54%
Matej BlumelWUSHLNR0%4%8%10%14%64%
Xavier SimoneauCQMJHL2040%4%12%11%11%62%
Albin SundsvikCSHL1230%1%2%7%7%82%
Zach GallantCOHLNR0%1%3%9%6%80%
Ilya AltybarmakyanWMHL650%3%7%7%12%70%
Valentin NussbaumerCNLA720%1%4%5%5%85%
Juuso ParssinenWLiiga330%3%5%8%14%70%
Harrison BlaisdellCBCHL800%2%6%10%7%75%
Nicolas FerenyiWWJC_18NR0%2%5%8%11%73%
Brendan BudyWUSHL1550%3%9%8%13%66%
Elmer SoderblomWInternational_Jr550%2%3%5%10%79%
Danil AntropovWOHLNR0%2%5%6%11%75%
Ryan McGregorCOHLNR0%1%3%6%4%85%
Joona IkonenWLiigaNR0%3%5%3%13%75%
Alexander PeresunkoWUSPHL_PremierNR0%4%7%7%12%70%
Lukas WernblomCAllsvenskan540%2%7%8%9%74%
Ondrej PsenickaWCzech U19530%2%3%4%9%82%
Joonas OdenWLiigaNR0%3%5%6%14%73%
Ryder DonovanCUSHL970%1%2%6%3%88%
Oliver OkuliarWSlovakiaNR0%3%6%7%12%72%
Michael MancinelliCUSHLNR0%2%7%9%9%73%
Leevi AaltonenWLiiga290%3%7%5%14%70%
Ethan LeyhWBCHL1670%3%7%8%11%72%
Nikita RtishchevWKHLNR0%3%5%6%14%73%
Joseph GarreffaWOHL1350%4%14%13%14%55%
Jonathan SorensonWNAHL2050%2%3%3%10%80%
Adam NajmanCCzech440%2%5%10%8%75%
Anthony RomanoWUSHL520%3%6%5%12%74%
Rickard HuggWSHL1620%4%8%9%17%63%
Massimo RizzoWWHC_17840%3%8%7%11%71%
Jonas PeterekCInternational_Jr800%1%2%5%3%88%
Nino KinderWDEL1110%3%6%4%13%75%
Felix BibeauCQMJHLNR0%1%4%10%6%78%
Mikhail AbramovWQMJHL630%3%5%4%11%77%
Vladislav MikhailovCKHL710%1%2%7%7%82%
Patrik PrymulaWInternational_Jr1050%2%4%4%13%78%
Josh LuedtkeDUSHLNR0%1%4%7%9%78%
Reilly FunkCMJHLNR0%1%2%8%3%86%
Lynden BreenCUSHL1830%2%6%6%7%79%
Filip CederqvistWSHL1190%3%5%5%15%73%
Vladimir AlistrovWWHL1180%2%4%3%11%80%
Arvid CostmarCInternational_Jr850%2%5%9%7%78%
Cole CoskeyWOHLNR0%3%7%9%13%69%
Jamieson ReesCOHL300%2%5%8%6%79%
Koby MorrisseauCWHLNR0%1%3%14%9%72%
Marcel BarinkaCQMJHLNR0%1%3%4%3%88%
Greg MeirelesWOHLNR0%3%9%11%13%63%
Keaton MastrodonatoCBCHLNR0%1%4%7%4%83%
Nicholas PorcoWOHL1030%4%13%9%19%55%
Sasha MutalaWWHL790%3%6%7%12%72%
Rhett PitlickWUSHL980%3%6%4%11%76%
Jack JensenWNAHL1950%3%6%7%13%71%
Brett KempCWHL1710%1%2%3%2%91%
Filip PrikrylCQMJHL1980%1%2%5%3%89%
Jakub RychlovskyWInternational_Jr1040%4%14%10%18%54%
Mathieu BizierCQMJHL1650%1%3%8%5%82%
Kyle BettensWMJHL1910%2%4%4%9%82%
Ethan BrowneCWHLNR0%1%3%8%6%82%
Grant SilianoffWUSHL600%3%5%4%11%78%
Jermaine LoewenWWHLNR0%2%6%11%13%69%
Oscar BjerseliusCSuperElitNR0%1%4%7%5%82%
Cade AlamiDMidget1730%1%2%5%7%84%
Matvei GuskovCInternational_Jr650%1%2%5%3%89%
Linus NymanWLiigaNR0%2%4%3%11%80%
Liam SvenssonCJ18AllsvenskanNR0%1%2%8%3%85%
Yegor SerdyukWInternational_JrNR0%2%4%3%10%80%
Michal MrazikWInternational_Jr960%2%3%4%9%83%
Kristian TanusWLiiga740%3%7%4%13%73%
Brady MeyerCUSHLNR0%0%1%4%2%92%
Daniil TesanovCMHL400%1%2%9%6%82%
Mikko PetmanWLiiga900%3%6%8%14%69%
Pavel KoltyginCInternational_JrNR0%1%4%10%7%77%
Gabriel DenisCQMJHLNR0%1%2%7%4%86%
Simon JellusWInternational_JrNR0%2%4%5%11%78%
Cole MuirCWHL2060%1%2%9%5%83%
Adam LiskaWKHLNR0%3%6%6%14%71%
Cody MorganCOHLNR0%1%4%9%7%79%
Eric CiccoliniWOJHL1080%3%8%6%13%70%
Alex SteevesWNCAANR0%2%7%7%13%71%
Jacob TortoraWUSDPNR0%3%7%5%13%73%
Parker FordCUSHL2100%1%3%6%4%85%
Nick AbruzzeseWNAHL1220%3%6%5%13%73%
Kevin WallWBCHL1240%3%7%9%12%70%
Jonathan YantsisWOHL1870%2%5%8%12%72%
Jeremy McKennaWQMJHLNR0%2%6%6%11%74%
Cole MackayWOHL990%2%6%7%12%73%
Sean DhoogheCUSDPNR0%4%14%4%12%66%
Brady GilmourCOHLNR0%1%5%9%7%77%
Carson FochtCWHLNR0%1%3%7%5%85%
Reece NewkirkCWHL810%1%3%6%4%85%
Nicolas GuayWQMJHLNR0%2%5%6%11%76%
Ben McCartneyWWHL1170%2%6%7%13%71%
Sergei AlkhimovWInternational_JrNR0%3%9%13%14%62%
Eric UbaWOHL1410%2%6%8%12%71%
Trevor JanickeWUSDP1190%3%11%12%15%59%
Ethan PhillipsWUSHL780%2%4%2%9%83%
Ethan De JongWNCAANR0%2%5%5%11%76%
Lev KomissarovWVHL480%2%4%4%11%79%
Alex YoungCAJHLNR0%1%4%5%4%86%
Brett BudgellWUSHL1560%2%6%7%12%73%
Kosta ManikisCOJHLNR0%1%3%7%3%87%
Sam StangeWUSHL1120%3%7%6%14%70%
Keean WashkurakCOHL1490%1%5%10%8%76%
Amir GarayevWMHLNR0%2%6%5%11%75%
Graeme ClarkeWOHL450%2%3%3%9%83%
Christopher InnissDQMJHLNR0%2%2%2%5%89%
Santeri HaaralaWLiigaNR0%2%5%4%12%76%
Alexander GordinWMHL620%2%3%2%8%85%
Billy MoskalCOHLNR0%1%3%9%6%81%
Lukas RousekWCzech390%2%3%2%10%82%
Tag BertuzziCOHLNR0%1%3%9%6%81%
Cedric PareCQMJHLNR0%1%2%10%5%82%
Dylan JacksonWUSHLNR0%2%5%3%10%80%
D'Artagnan JolyWQMJHLNR0%1%2%2%7%86%
Nate WarnerWUMHSEHL1760%2%4%4%9%82%
Alexei SergeyevCQMJHLNR0%1%4%9%6%79%
Wilson JohanssonWSHL660%2%4%3%12%79%
Adrian ValiguraWSlovakia1340%1%2%3%8%85%
Takhir MingachyovCVHL680%0%2%4%2%92%
Kyen SopaWOHLNR0%3%9%11%13%64%
Tim FleischerCInternational_JrNR0%1%3%6%4%86%
Travis TreloarCUSHLNR0%1%3%5%4%88%
Tyce ThompsonCNCAA830%1%2%4%3%91%
Henry RybinskiWWHL1230%1%3%3%9%84%
Josh WilliamsWWHL1450%2%4%4%10%81%
Tomas MazuraWUSHS_Prep1310%1%3%3%7%86%
Brett NeumannCOHLNR0%1%5%8%7%79%
Keijo WeibelWNLANR0%2%7%7%13%71%
Vojtech StrondalaCCzech950%1%5%5%5%83%
Lucas EdmondsWAllsvenskan1180%2%5%5%13%75%
Ty JacksonCUSHLNR0%1%5%4%4%86%
Garrett PinoniemiWUMHSEHL1060%2%5%2%11%81%
William PerssonWInternational_JrNR0%2%5%8%12%72%
Keegan StevensonCOHL950%1%2%4%3%91%
Matias MantykiviWLiiga1220%2%3%2%9%84%
Raphael Harvey-PinardWQMJHLNR0%2%5%4%10%79%
Cole SchwindtWOHL960%1%2%2%7%89%
Arseni GritsyukWMHL490%2%4%3%10%80%
Max WahlgrenWInternational_Jr450%2%4%4%10%80%
Cale ZimmermanCWHLNR0%1%4%9%7%80%
Ilya SafonovCInternational_JrNR0%0%1%3%2%93%
Daniel D'AmicoWOHL2170%2%7%7%12%72%
Aarne IntonenWInternational_JrNR0%2%5%5%11%78%
Alexei TsyplakovWVHL470%1%2%1%7%89%
David KarlstromCInternational_Jr810%1%2%6%4%87%
Aku RaityWInternational_Jr670%1%3%2%8%85%
Mika CyrWMJAHLNR0%2%6%6%11%75%
Anton LarssonCInternational_JrNR0%1%2%5%3%89%
Hugo GustafssonCAllsvenskan1210%1%3%4%3%89%
Martin LangWWHLNR0%2%3%3%9%83%
Isac AnderssonWInternational_JrNR0%2%4%5%10%79%
Pavel GogolevWOHL1400%1%3%3%8%84%
Felix CarenfeltWSuperElitNR0%2%6%7%11%74%
Anton HeikkinenWSHLNR0%2%5%4%13%76%
Lucas FeukWInternational_Jr790%2%4%4%10%80%
Maxim DenezhkinCMHL410%1%4%6%4%86%
Tyler AngleCOHL1740%1%4%6%5%85%
Linus NassenWSHL920%2%3%4%12%80%
Matthew VerboonWInternational_JrNR0%1%4%5%11%78%
Tyler PaquetteWUSHLNR0%1%3%4%9%82%
Brendan McFaddenWUMHSEHLNR0%1%5%8%10%75%
Brett DavisWWHLNR0%1%3%3%8%85%
Jami KrannilaWUSHL1430%1%4%2%9%84%
Dan BartosWCzech1030%3%8%4%19%66%
Yaroslav AlexeyevWMHLNR0%1%2%1%7%89%
Zachary OkabeWAJHL2010%2%5%4%10%79%
Felix-Antoine MarcottyWQMJHLNR0%1%5%7%11%75%
Martin BeranekWInternational_Jr1130%1%3%2%9%84%
Brayden GuyWOHL1810%1%5%6%11%77%
Maxim GolodWOHL1900%1%4%3%9%83%
Aaron HuglenWUSHL900%1%3%2%8%85%
Yaroslav LikhachyovWQMJHLNR0%1%3%2%8%85%
Petr CajkaWInternational_Jr1520%1%3%2%8%86%
Nikita MikhailovCMHLNR0%0%2%3%2%93%
Nikita NesterenkoWAYHL16U1210%1%3%2%6%88%
Emmett SprouleCOHLNR0%1%3%5%4%88%
Alex SwetlikoffWWHL1750%1%2%2%7%88%
Chad YetmanWOHLNR0%1%4%3%9%82%
Jacob GaucherCQMJHL1590%0%1%4%2%93%
Nikita ShashkovWKHLNR0%1%3%3%11%81%
Gustav GreenCInternational_JrNR0%0%1%3%2%93%
Dalton DuhartCOHLNR0%1%2%5%3%89%
Landon LangenbrunnerCNAHLNR0%1%2%3%2%93%
David KopeWWHL2020%1%1%0%3%95%
Kaden BohlsenWUSHL1960%1%2%2%7%88%
Arlo MerrittWUSHL1440%1%2%2%7%88%
Bryce KindoppWWHL1700%1%3%3%8%85%
Filip KofferWCzechNR0%1%3%2%9%84%
John BeatonCCCHL1770%0%1%4%2%92%
Bradley ChenierWOHLNR0%1%4%5%10%80%
Cullen McLeanCOHLNR0%0%1%2%1%96%
Dmitri SheshinWMHLNR0%1%3%1%8%86%
Josh LopinaWUSHLNR0%1%1%1%5%92%
Max-Antoine MelanconWQMJHLNR0%1%4%6%10%80%
Dominik SklenarWInternational_Jr910%1%3%3%9%84%
Benjamin TardifWQMJHLNR0%1%6%8%12%73%
Joel WahlgrenWInternational_Jr1250%1%3%3%9%84%
Mathieu SamsonWQMJHLNR0%1%2%2%6%89%
Jeremy MartinWQMJHLNR0%1%3%4%9%83%
Liam KeelerWWHLNR0%1%3%3%8%86%
Mikhail RomayevWMHLNR0%1%3%4%9%83%
Axel SimicWNLA1330%1%4%3%10%81%
Oscar LawnerWInternational_JrNR0%1%4%4%10%80%
Mico LuotoDJr.ASM_liiga1310%2%0%1%4%92%
Brooklyn KalmikovWQMJHL2000%1%2%2%7%88%
Marcus PedersenWInternational_JrNR0%1%1%1%5%92%
Rizvan MansurovCOJHLNR0%1%2%5%2%90%
Xavier ParentWQMJHL2090%2%6%6%11%75%
Luke BignellCOHLNR0%0%1%2%1%95%
Jake HaleWNAHLNR0%1%4%3%10%82%
Bobby TrivignoWNCAANR0%1%3%1%8%87%
Maxim TrepanierWQMJHLNR0%1%3%3%8%85%
Jan BernovskyWInternational_Jr1060%1%5%3%12%79%
Navrin MutterCOHL1890%0%1%3%1%95%
Tyler YoungWMHSLU161850%1%2%1%5%91%
Yegor ChizhikovWMHLNR0%1%2%2%7%88%
Stepan NikulinWMHLNR0%1%4%4%9%83%
Carl SjobergWSuperElitNR0%1%2%2%7%87%
Konsta HirvonenWInternational_JrNR0%1%2%2%7%88%
Filiph AstromWInternational_Jr1190%1%4%4%10%82%
Justin DucharmeWQMJHLNR0%1%3%3%7%86%
Maxim ShabanovWMHLNR0%1%3%1%7%88%
Jeremy MichelWQMJHLNR0%1%1%0%4%94%
Mitchell RussellWOHLNR0%1%3%3%8%84%
Bailey PeachWQMJHL1510%1%4%3%9%84%
Chase SakicWNAPHL16UNR0%1%3%2%7%87%
Patriks ZabusovsWMHLNR0%1%2%1%5%91%
Daniel JouzaWInternational_Jr1070%1%3%1%8%87%
Alex MorozoffWWHLNR0%1%3%3%8%86%
Jacob WintertonWOHLNR0%1%2%1%6%90%
Mathieu BoulianneWQMJHLNR0%1%3%3%8%84%
Tarun FizerWWHL1990%1%2%1%6%90%
Leevi TeissalaWInternational_Jr1260%1%3%2%7%87%
Maxim MusorovWMHLNR0%1%3%2%7%87%
Yannik ValentiWInternational_JrNR0%1%3%2%8%86%
Yegor BryzgalovWMHLNR0%1%2%2%6%89%
Alexander ChernovWMHLNR0%1%3%3%8%85%
Jonathan BrinkmanWInternational_Jr1280%1%2%1%6%89%
Linus PetterssonWAllsvenskanNR0%1%2%1%7%89%
Albin OlofssonWInternational_JrNR0%1%3%2%8%87%
Niklas NormanWMidgetNR0%1%2%1%5%91%
Dias GuseinovWMHLNR0%0%1%0%3%95%
Christophe FarmerWQMJHLNR0%1%2%1%5%92%
Lucas RoweWOHLNR0%1%2%2%6%90%
Deniss FjodorovsWInternational_JrNR0%1%3%2%7%88%
Alexander ChernyWInternational_JrNR0%1%1%1%4%93%
Noah BeckDOJHLNR0%2%2%4%6%85%
Jack RingWT1EHLU182070%0%1%1%4%94%
Tomas BernatWCzechU181100%0%1%1%4%93%
Aidar NazmutdinovWMHLNR0%1%2%1%6%91%
Denis PochivalovWMHLNR0%0%2%2%6%90%
Kirill MukhinWMHLNR0%0%2%1%5%91%
Yevgeni OksentyukWWJC_20D1ANR0%1%3%2%6%89%
Kieran BrownWEIHLNR0%1%1%1%4%93%
Yegor SuchkovWMHLNR0%0%1%0%4%94%
Alexei KrivchenkovWMHLNR0%0%1%1%5%93%
Marek BerkaWInternational_Jr970%0%1%0%3%96%
Alexis LyonnaisWQMAAANR0%0%1%1%3%95%

Again, Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko look like sure-fire, no-brainer top 2 overall picks. In terms of First Line / Pair probability, Cam York (D, USDP) and Cole Caufield (W, USDP) fall next-in-line behind the consensus top-2. Caufield had a strong translated point per game at 0.82, but his diminutive size knocks down his projection and increases his bustability. Peyton Krebs’s likelihood projections look much more appetizing than his translated points per game. He ranks 3rd in non-NHL probability and 1st in both second and third line probabilities, making him destined for a middle line center role. Another USDP prospect that stood out was 5’7″ Defensemen Domenick Fensore. Fensore’s young age, size, and production make him a boom-bust candidate. Right or wrong, small defensemen have historically been either really good (Jared Spurgeon) or not even made the NHL (DJ Jones). Even when accounting for size, top-ranked prospects Dylan Czechs and Kirby Dach again look more like late first round picks than consensus lottery picks.