Man vs Model: NFL Week 4

Last week was a tough one for me. I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong 4 out of 6 times. I’d like to see the model take that kind of responsibility for its’ mistakes. I guess I’m just the bigger of the two men in this scenario. So after last week, the model and I are back in a deadlock and it’s time for me to dust myself off, look myself in the mirror, and get right back on the horse. So let’s get this thing started.

Chargers vs. Eagles | Model Says: Chargers -1.5

I said last week that it would be my last betting on the Chargers if they couldn’t take care of business. Looks like the model is falling right into the same trap that I’ve fallen into countless times. LA Chargers games are where degenerates go to die. Nothing fun about watching your team go down 20 points in the first half, battle back to within 4 points, and not convert on the last drive of the game to miss the +3 spread you bet your life on. I’ve been a fan of the Eagles so far this year and I like their momentum coming off that emotional win over the Giants. Give me the Eagles and the 1.5 on the road.
Final Prediction: Philly covers and probably wins outright to push the Chargers to 0-4

Seahawks vs Colts | Model Says: Over 41.5

After two weeks of the under reigning supreme, the overs were hot last week in the NFL. You had to figure the other shoe would drop eventually and the totals would work themselves back to the median. Both of these teams took part in games that hit the over with the Colts putting up 31 on the Browns and the Seahawks scoring 27 in a losing effort to the Titans. Seattle has underperformed this year. The offense has struggled and Russel Wilson has been lucky to escape with his life. I actually think the Seahawks are going to blowout this Colts this week and the offense will look much better than weeks past but there isn’t enough data in the world to convince me that Jacoby Brissett can come into Seattle and put up more than 10 points. With that in mind, I cannot in good conscience put my money on the over.
Final Prediction: Under 41.5

Jets vs Jags | Model Says: Under 39.5

So how about Blake Bortles and the Jags?? They should just pack up and move to London right now. Has to be a better home field advantage than playing in Jacksonville. Jaguars are 2-1 and road favorites for the first time in what has to be since Mark Brunell was playing. Meanwhile, the Jets can’t even tank right. If Josh McCown keeps playing like a serviceable quarterback they may just need to bench him in favor of someone who can lose properly. The idea of a game between the Jets and Jaguars going over probably seem impossible at the beginning of the season but both teams are coming off of solid offensive performances and that total is just too damn low not to jump on.
Final Prediction: Over 39.5

Additional Picks

Chicago +7 vs. Green Bay: This is a very strict gut and spite bet. I hate the Packers more than almost anything in this world. Watching them come back last week against the Bengals made my blood boil. I’ve also been very adamant about the Bears being my against the spread team of the year. What kind of man would I be if I didn’t put my money where my mouth is against my arch rivals?

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh Over 42: Here’s a game featuring two teams coming off of tough losses to seemingly inferior opponents. Flacco has looked anything but elite so far this year and the Pittsburgh offense hasn’t looked nearly as potent as everyone expected at the beginning of the year. For whatever reason, this game just screams shootout to me. Flacco figures it out and the Steelers offense finally fires on all cylinders.

Kansas City -7 vs Washington: I actually said on Hammer the Over that my initial reaction to this game was to bet Washington and the touchdown but that’s exactly why I’m going with KC. Sometimes you have to trick yourself. I’ve bet against the Chiefs every week this year and lost each time, at some point you just have to swallow your pride hop aboard.

That’s it for me. Let’s cook.

Fred: 4 Model: 4
Total Record: 6-8