2018 NBA Playoff Game Predictions

The table below contains our game-by-game predictions for the 2018 NBA Playoffs, which we will update daily with predictions for each day’s games. The table includes the Vegas Spread, our predicted spread, Vegas Total, and our predicted total. The Vegas spread and 284 Spread are both shown from the perspective of the home team – meaning negative numbers indicate that the home team is favored. More detail on our how our models work can be found here. Also be sure to check out our predictions for every series as a whole.

HomeAwayGmDateVegas
Spread
284
Spread
Vegas
Total
284
Total
BOSCLE75/27/18-2.5-3.3200.5200.4
GSWHOU65/26/18-12-12.9212.5206.6
CLEBOS65/25/18-7-8.0202201.1
HOUGSW55/24/180-1.4219.5218.6
BOSCLE55/23/18-1.5-2.3205204.7
GSWHOU45/22/18-8.5-10.2224218.0
CLEBOS45/21/18-7-8.9206205.4
GSWHOU35/20/18-7.5-9.1226.5222.0
CLEBOS35/19/18-6.5-8.8205.5205.8
HOUGSW25/16/18-1.5-3.0224.5223.0
BOSCLE25/15/18-1+0.5203202.1
HOUGSW15/14/18-1-1.5224221.7
BOSCLE15/13/18+1.5+0.6204204.9
BOSPHI55/09/18-1-0.6204206.3
HOUUTA55/08/18-12-11.4208206.3
GSWNOP55/08/18-11.5-12.3227224.4
PHIBOS45/07/18-6.5-8.9205199.8
CLETOR45/07/18-5-4.3213.5215.5
NOPGSW45/06/18+6+3.1231228.7
UTAHOU45/06/18+5.5+2.8209205.3
PHIBOS35/05/18-9-11.1206.5201.4
CLETOR35/05/18-4.53.8216218.8
NOPGSW35/04/18+4.5+1.3232230.7
UTAHOU35/04/18+4.0+0.9209206.1
TORCLE25/03/18-6.5-6.6212.5207.6
BOSPHI25/03/18+4+5.0206.5208.5
HOUUTA25/02/18-11-9.8205.5205.7
TORCLE15/01/18-6.5-5.3215208.7
GSWNOP25/01/18-11-9.6227224.6
BOSPHI14/30/18+3+3.9208207.7
HOUUTA14/29/18-11.5-9.9206.5204.2
CLEIND74/29/18-5.5-5.4199.5200.8
GSWNOP14/28/18-7.5-7.4223.5222.1
BOSMIL74/28/18-4.5-5.6196195.9
WASTOR64/27/18+2+2.5214.5214.3
INDCLE64/27/18-1.5-2.3202200.7
UTAOKC64/27/18-7-8.8207205.6
MILBOS64/26/18-4.5-4.7201.5196.6
TORWAS54/25/18-7-6.4216209.8
CLEIND54/25/18-6.5-7.7206205.8
HOUMIN54/25/18-12-14.8217216.9
OKCUTA54/25/18-2.5-1.5207.5205.8
BOSMIL54/24/18-4.5-5202.5202.3
PHIMIA54/24/18-10-11.1215.5213.0
GSWSAS54/24/18-11-12.1204.5202.8
MINHOU44/23/18+6+6.2217.5214.1
UTAOKC44/23/18-5-8.2208207.3
MILBOS44/22/18-5.5-6.6203.5200.0
SASGSW44/22/18+5.5+5.3206.5207.7
WASTOR44/22/18+1.5+1.2217217.4
INDCLE44/22/18+1.5+0.7206.5205.7
MIAPHI44/21/18+4+3.4212.5211.7
NOPPOR44/21/18-6.5-7.3217217.3
MINHOU34/21/18+6+7.2217211.1
UTAOKC34/21/18-5-8.3209206.8
INDCLE34/20/18-1.5-1.6209.5209.1
WASTOR34/20/18-1-1.5217.5219.2
MILBOS34/20/18-5-5.9205.5202.3
MIAPHI34/19/18+2.5+1.3213.5211.5
NOPPOR34/19/18-3.5-5.3215.5216.5
SASGSW34/19/18+3.5+3.2205.5207.5
CLEIND24/18/18-8-10.4212.5211.0
OKCUTA24/18/18-3.5-1.7208.5207.2
HOUMIN24/18/18-10.5-12.8216217.2
TORWAS24/17/18-6.5-6.8215210.2
BOSMIL24/17/18-2.5-3.7197199.7
PORNOP24/17/18-6.5-5.4214206.6
PHIMIA24/16/18-6.5-10.2214215.1
GSWSAS24/16/18-9.5-11.8205.5204.0
BOSMIL14/15/18-4-4.8199.5201.3
CLEIND14/15/18-7-8.6213211.3
OKCUTA14/15/18-4-2204.5203.2
HOUMIN14/15/18-11-12.2215.5217.2
GSWSAS14/14/18-8-8.8207203.3
TORWAS14/14/18-7.5-8.3212206.2
PHIMIA14/14/18-6.5-8.4214211.6
PORNOP14/14/18-5.5-4.9217210.8

Model Accuracy

Both models have a historical accuracy percentage near 54-55% when testing on out-of-sample games. Here is each model’s winning percentage against the closing Vegas spreads/totals for each game so far in this year’s playoffs:

  • 284 Spread: 44-29-2 (60.3%)
  • 284 Total: 45-30-0 (60.0%)

Includes games from 5/25/2018 and earlier