Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) is a model used to project NBA success for college basketball players based upon their individual and team college basketball statistics, physical measurements, high school scouting rankings, and college basketball experience. The PNSP model returns a single rating value from 0 to 100. A higher rating value indicates a “better” NBA prospect. We provide a more detailed article outlining how PNSP is formulated here. Below are a few highlights of PNSP’s ratings for the 2017 NBA Draft Class,

Highlights

First and foremost, it is important to remember that a player’s PNSP score is based on the distribution of players within the same position. Ranking of players by PNSP across different positions is a different use than originally intended. For example, saying Jonathan Isaac is a “better” prospect than Markelle Fultz because his 97.1 PNSP rating is higher than Fultz’s 96.5 is not necessarily true because they play different positions.

Anyway, PNSP’s 2017 top NBA Draft prospect is Jonathan Isaac. Isaac has ideal physical tools, an overall versatile game, and elite defensive ability at the wing position, which make him PNSP’s top prospect in 2017 Draft. Not so far behind are Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and surprisingly Caleb Swanigan. Swanigan posted gaudy numbers, averaging 18.5 points per game, 12.5 rebounds per game, 3.0 assists per game, and shot an impressive 44.7% from 3 on 85 attempts. While Swanigan’s college statistics were impressive, it is tough to see him fitting defensively in the modern day NBA. PNSP also strongly liked Henry Ellenson last year, so it’s fair to say PNSP might not have fully “learned” what constitutes a modern-day NBA big.

One consensus top prospect missing from the top 10 is Josh Jackson. PNSP heavily weights shooting ability, and thus Josh Jackson’s 56.6% college free throw percentage severely limits his NBA potential from PNSP’s perspective. Jackson still receives a solid rating at 72.0, but he tumbles down the board to 17, partially due to the fact that PNSP rates this draft class highly as a whole: 4 prospects score higher than 90, and 13 rated higher than 80 (16% of draft-eligible players)! Compare that to last year’s draft class, in which PNSP rated only 4 players above 80 (9% of drafted players).

Over the next couple of days, we will release our NBA Role Probability Model and Similarity Scores for 2017 Draft prospects. Following that, we will break down some of the top prospects by piecing together our 3 components to better assess each prospect, and ultimately create a consensus draft board.

*Data retrieved from Basketball Reference, Sports Reference and DraftExpress.

Written by  Marc Richards and Jack Werner.