2017 Peak NBA Statline Projection Model

Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) is a model used to project NBA success for college basketball players based upon their individual and team college basketball statistics, physical measurements, high school scouting rankings, and college basketball experience. The PNSP model returns a single rating value from 0 to 100. A higher rating value indicates a “better” NBA prospect. We provide a more detailed article outlining how PNSP is formulated here. Below are a few highlights of PNSP’s ratings for the 2017 NBA Draft Class,

Highlights

First and foremost, it is important to remember that a player’s PNSP score is based on the distribution of players within the same position. Ranking of players by PNSP across different positions is a different use than originally intended. For example, saying Jonathan Isaac is a “better” prospect than Markelle Fultz because his 97.1 PNSP rating is higher than Fultz’s 96.5 is not necessarily true because they play different positions.

Anyway, PNSP’s 2017 top NBA Draft prospect is Jonathan Isaac. Isaac has ideal physical tools, an overall versatile game, and elite defensive ability at the wing position, which make him PNSP’s top prospect in 2017 Draft. Not so far behind are Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and surprisingly Caleb Swanigan. Swanigan posted gaudy numbers, averaging 18.5 points per game, 12.5 rebounds per game, 3.0 assists per game, and shot an impressive 44.7% from 3 on 85 attempts. While Swanigan’s college statistics were impressive, it is tough to see him fitting defensively in the modern day NBA. PNSP also strongly liked Henry Ellenson last year, so it’s fair to say PNSP might not have fully “learned” what constitutes a modern-day NBA big.

One consensus top prospect missing from the top 10 is Josh Jackson. PNSP heavily weights shooting ability, and thus Josh Jackson’s 56.6% college free throw percentage severely limits his NBA potential from PNSP’s perspective. Jackson still receives a solid rating at 72.0, but he tumbles down the board to 17, partially due to the fact that PNSP rates this draft class highly as a whole: 4 prospects score higher than 90, and 13 rated higher than 80 (16% of draft-eligible players)! Compare that to last year’s draft class, in which PNSP rated only 4 players above 80 (9% of drafted players).

Over the next couple of days, we will release our NBA Role Probability Model and Similarity Scores for 2017 Draft prospects. Following that, we will break down some of the top prospects by piecing together our 3 components to better assess each prospect, and ultimately create a consensus draft board.

RankPlayerSchoolPNSP
1Jonathan IsaacFlorida State97.1
2Markelle FultzWashington96.5
3Caleb SwaniganPurdue93.8
4Lonzo BallUCLA91.0
5Dennis SmithNC State89.4
6Jayson TatumDuke88.6
7Zach CollinsGonzaga83.6
8De'Aaron FoxKentucky83.2
9Jordan BellOregon83.0
10TJ LeafUCLA82.8
11Lauri MarkkanenArizona81.7
12John CollinsWake Forest81.4
13Sindarius ThornwellSouth Carolina80.0
14Donovan MitchellLouisville78.3
15Malik MonkKentucky77.1
16Josh JacksonKansas72.0
17Aaron HolidayUCLA69.4
18Josh HartVillanova68.4
19Omer YurtsevenNC State67.4
20Jake WileyEastern Washington65.9
21Dedric LawsonMemphis65.5
22Alec PetersValparaiso64.3
23Justin PattonCreighton63.7
24Derrick WhiteColorado62.8
25Ike AnigboguUCLA62.7
26Thomas BryantIndiana62.2
27L.J. PeakGeorgetown61.8
28Cameron OliverNevada60.0
29Chris BoucherOregon59.7
30Ivan RabbCalifornia58.8
31Thomas WelshUCLA58.7
32Melo TrimbleMaryland57.6
33Kennedy MeeksUNC57.5
34Johnathan MotleyBaylor56.9
35Nigel Williams-GossGonzaga56.7
37Frank MasonKansas56.6
36Edrice AdebayoKentucky56.3
37Rawle AlkinsArizona55.5
38Kadeem AllenArizona53.9
39Jacob EvansCincinnati53.6
40Jawun EvansOklahoma State52.6
41Frank JacksonDuke51.8
42Luke KennardDuke48.4
43OG AnunobyIndiana48.2
44Tony BradleyOregon47.8
45Harry GilesDuke46.7
46Jarrett AllenTexas46.4
47D.J. WilsonMichigan45.5
48Tyler LydonSyracuse45.3
49Semi OjeleyeSMU44.6
50Kyle KuzmaUtah44.0
51Malcolm HillIllinois43.2
52Justin JacksonUNC42.8
53Drew EubanksOregon State42.0
54Dillon BrooksOregon41.6
55Joel BerryUNC41.5
56P.J. DozierSouth Carolina38.2
57Isaac HumphriesKentucky36.0
58Monte MorrisIowa State32.7
59Kobi SimmonsArizona31.3
60Deng AdelLouisville30.3
61Wesley IwunduKansas State29.3
62Luke KornetVanderbilt25.4
63Chandler HutchisonFlorida25.4
64Isaiah BriscoeKentucky24.9
65Devin RobinsonFlorida24.3
66Tacko FallUCF24.1
67Sviatoslav MykhailiukKansas22.0
68Grayson AllenDuke21.9
69V.J. BeachemNotre Dame16.9
70Andrew WhiteSyracuse15.7
71Bronson KoenigWisconsin14.0
72Damyean DotsonHouston10.3
73Antonius ClevelandSE Missouri9.6
74Jaron BlossomgameClemson8.1
75Przemek KarnowskiGonzaga7.5
76Tyler DorseyOregon7.0
78Vitto BrownWisconsin6.2
79Isaiah HicksUNC5.7
80Nigel HayesWisconsin3.1

*Data retrieved from Basketball ReferenceSports Reference and DraftExpress.

Written by  Marc Richards and Jack Werner.

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