2018 NBA Conference Finals

The probabilities for our second round predictions were generated from four unique statistical models that are built on team and player level data from the regular season. Our prediction for each series comes from computing the average of these four models. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued. For more information on our modeling techniques check out our methodologies page.

Through two rounds, we have gone 10/12 in series predictions. Our two misses were from picking the Trailblazers over the Pelicans in round 1 and the Raptors over the Cavaliers in round 2. Just like last year, the Cavaliers are performing at a different level in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. In the Conference Finals, our models are siding with the underdogs in both conferences – the Rockets over the Warriors and the Celtics over the Cavaliers. Although the average of our four models give the Celtics a 60% chance of winning the series, two of the four models actually favored the Cavaliers in the series. We will continue to update the table below throughout the series!

Home TeamAway Team Series ScoreHome Win Prob
HOUGSW3-281.5%
HOUGSW2-276.3%
HOUGSW1-239.4%
HOUGSW1-159.5%
HOUGSW0-150.9%
HOUGSW0-068.5%
BOSCLE3-364.2%
BOSCLE3-278.6%
BOSCLE2-260.7%
BOSCLE2-172.7%
BOSCLE2-078.8%
BOSCLE1-070.8%
BOSCLE0-060.0%

 

Below is the result of 10,000 simulations from the Conference finals on.

Simulation is updated at the end of each round.