All posts by Sam Walczak

My Model Monday: NFL Coaches Exceeding Win Totals

Every year in the barren wasteland of the NFL offseason, pre-season win totals are set by oddsmakers for each team, serving as a rough expectation for how many games a given team will win in the coming season (e.g., the New England Patriots currently have a win total of 11 for 2018). I took a look at how coaches have performed against those pre-season expectations, with the idea being that a “successful” season is one in which they exceeded their expected wins. As an example, the 2017 Los Angeles Rams had a pre-season win total of 6, but ended up winning 11 games, so that gives a +5 mark for 1st-year head coach Sean McVay. For coaches with multiple seasons under their belt, we can do that calculation for every season and roll-up the results to give a view of how a given coach has performed against expectations over a long period of time.
Continue reading My Model Monday: NFL Coaches Exceeding Win Totals

Prospect Profile: Zhaire Smith

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Zhaire Smith.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Zhaire Smith

Prospect Profile: Mohamed Bamba

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Mohamed Bamba.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Mohamed Bamba

Prospect Profile: Trae Young

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Trae Young.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Trae Young

Prospect Profile: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Jaren Jackson Jr.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Jaren Jackson Jr.

2018 NBA Playoff Game Predictions

The table below contains our game-by-game predictions for the 2018 NBA Playoffs, which we will update daily with predictions for each day’s games. The table includes the Vegas Spread, our predicted spread, Vegas Total, and our predicted total. The Vegas spread and 284 Spread are both shown from the perspective of the home team – meaning negative numbers indicate that the home team is favored. More detail on our how our models work can be found here. Also be sure to check out our predictions for every series as a whole.
Continue reading 2018 NBA Playoff Game Predictions

Prospect Profile: Mikal Bridges

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Mikal Bridges.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Mikal Bridges

Prospect Profile: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at yet another Kentucky freshman, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Model 284 Podcast: NBA Draft Models

On this episode of the Model 284 Podcast, Sam and Marc are joined by fellow Model 284er Jack Werner to give some background on our NBA Draft models, discuss draft theory and positional value, and look a bit at the 2018 draft class.

Model 284 Podcast: Hockey Translation Factors and Peter Lindblad Interview

In this episode of the Model 284 podcast, we catch you up on everything going on at Model 284, breakdown our Hockey League Translations Model, and interview professional hockey player Peter Lindblad to discuss analytics in hockey, professional hockey in Europe, Sunday punting, and more.