All posts by Sam Walczak

Fantasy Points Above Expectation

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, Miami’s FPAE against QBs in 2016 was 6.1, meaning that they gave up an average of 6.1 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. As a further example, let’s say Sam Bradford is averaging 15 fantasy points going into a Week 6 game against Detroit, and he scores 22 points in that game. Detroit would get a +7 FPAE vs. QBs for Week 6, since Bradford scored 7 points more than his average. Detroit’s +7 FPAE for Week 6 would be combined with their QB FPAE values from Weeks 1-5 to get their average QB FPAE. This process is repeated for each team against each position to calculate our FPAE values. Negative FPAE values indicate that a team is holding players they face below their average production.
Continue reading Fantasy Points Above Expectation

2017 NBA Playoffs Wrap-Up

Now that the Cavs and Warriors finally met up in the highly anticipated NBA Finals rematch only to let us down with a 4-1 blowout, we take a look back at how our models fared in the NBA Playoffs as a whole. To recap, we have a Playoff Series Win Probability Model that predicts a percent chance that a team wins a given series, as well as our Playoff Betting Models that predict point spreads and totals for each game.

Continue reading 2017 NBA Playoffs Wrap-Up

Prospect Profile: Justin Patton

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we look at Minnesota Timberwolves selection Justin Patton.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Justin Patton

Model 284 NBA Draft Board

Using a combination of our NBA Draft Models (PNSP, NBA Role Probabilities, & Similarity Scores), we have created a consensus ranking for the 2017 NBA Draft. For example, Jawun Evans ranks 40th by PNSP but has the 7th highest All-Start probability in the class, so we have him ranked higher than 40th on our draft board. These rankings are meant to take into account the predictions from all of our models, while also considering any outside factors that the models do not directly account for (e.g., off-court issues, NBA fit, ranking within a position, model biases, etc.). It should also be noted that international prospects are not included in our models or our draft board.

Continue reading Model 284 NBA Draft Board

Prospect Profile: Zach Collins

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we look at Final Four sensation Zach Collins.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Zach Collins

Prospect Profile: Dennis Smith Jr

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we break down the NBA prospects of Dennis Smith Jr.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Dennis Smith Jr

Prospect Profile: Malik Monk

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In the article below, we provide everything our models tell us about Kentucky guard Malik Monk.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Malik Monk

Prospect Profile: De’Aaron Fox

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our NBA Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we look at a prospect who propelled his draft stock in this year’s NCAA Tournament in De’Aaron Fox.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: De’Aaron Fox

Prospect Profile: Josh Jackson

Leading up to the 2017 NBA Draft, we will be diving into what our Draft Models tell us about this year’s top prospects. Our Draft Models include the PNSP Model, NBA Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores which each provide unique ways of evaluating college prospects. Our Prospect Profiles will look at which stats positively/negatively affect NBA projections, unique data points from a player’s stats, and relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find links to all of our Prospect Profiles in the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In this article, we take a look at KU Freshman Josh Jackson.

Continue reading Prospect Profile: Josh Jackson