2018 NFL Game Predictions

The following table contains our spread and total predictions for each NFL game. We will update this post with new predictions/matchups each week and keep track of how our models perform against the closing Vegas lines for each game. Our models are built using a combination of variables, including our Elo Ratings, Vegas spreads/totals, situational factors, team statistics (from a team’s last 7 games played), historical QB rating of the starting QBs, and more. Our predictions are generated as a composite (i.e., the average of multiple models). We are working on a more detailed write up on our modeling methodology that we will eventually link in here.

2018 – Week 3

HmAwWkVegas
Spread
Our
Spread
Vegas
Total
Our
Total
CLENYJ3-3-34037.5
ATLNO3-3-35353.5
BALDEN3-5.5-64440
CARCIN3-3-34445
HOUNYG3-6-5.541.543
JACTEN3-6.5-639.540.5
KCSF3-6.5-756.554
MIAOAK3-3-3.543.543.5
MINBUF3-16.5-16.54142
PHIIND3-6.5-7.547.546.5
WSHGB3+3+4.545.550
LARLAC3-7-6.548.549.5
ARICHI3+6+2.537.542.5
SEADAL3-1.5-341.544.5
DETNE3+7+852.554
TBPIT3+1+1.553.552
ATLCAR2-5.5-74445
BUFSDG2+7.5+641.542
CHISEA2-4.5-2.542.546
CINRAV2-1-0.54345.5
DALNYG2-3-44241.5
DENRAI2-5.5-4.54443
GNBMIN2+2+0.54543.5
JAXNWE2+2+244.544
NORCLE2-10-10.55150.5
NYJMIA2-3-1.54344
OTIHTX2+3.5+34137
PITKAN2-4.5-5.55251
RAMCRD2-13.5-14.543.542
SFODET2-6-7.548.547.5
TAMPHI2+3+2.546.545
WASCLT2-6-6.54850.5
CARDAL1-2.5-1.542.544
CLEPIT1+3.5+44140.5
CLTCIN1+1+0.547.548.5
CRDWAS1-2-2.543.547
DENSEA1-3-242.544
DETNYJ1-7-74445.5
GNBCHI1-6.5-84541
MIAOTI1+1+0.543.543
MINSFO1-6-646.548
NORTAM1-10-115050
NWEHTX1-6-849.546
NYGJAX1+2.5+4.54345.5
PHIATL1-1-144.542
RAIRAM1+6.5+547.547
RAVBUF1-7.5-6.53937.5
SDGKAN1-3.5-14846

Model Accuracy

The following metrics are based on a comparison of our predictions to closing Vegas lines for each game (e.g., we use our model to predict a given game’s margin of victory, compare that prediction to the closing Vegas spread for that game, and mark the game as a win, loss, or push).

  • Spreads: 12-15-5 (44.4%) – Last Week: 8-7-1 (53.3%)
  • Totals: 14-17-1 (45.2%) – Last Week: 8-8-0 (50.0%)

Updated 9/19/2018