2018 NFL Game Predictions

The following table contains our spread and total predictions for each NFL game. We will update this post with new predictions/matchups each week and keep track of how our models perform against the closing Vegas lines for each game. Our models are built using a combination of variables, including our Elo Ratings, Vegas spreads/totals, situational factors, team statistics (from a team’s last 7 games played), historical QB rating of the starting QBs, and more. Our predictions are generated as a composite (i.e., the average of multiple models). We are working on a more detailed write up on our modeling methodology that we will eventually link in here.

2018 – Week 11

HmAwWkVegas
Spread
Our
Spread
Vegas
Total
Our
Total
SEAGB11-2.5-64950.5
ATLDAL11-3.5-5.54849
BALCIN11----
CHIMIN11-3-0.545.543
DETCAR11+4+45154.5
INDTEN11-2-148.548.5
NOPHI11-8-9.55555.5
NYGTB11-1.5-0.552.552
WSHHOU11+3+142.545.5
ARIOAK11-4-4.540.543
LACDEN11-7-7.546.545
JACPIT11+5.5+647.549.5
LARKC11-3.5-363.563.5
CHIDET10-7.5-644.540
CINNOR10+6+5.553.551.5
CLEATL10+5.5+7.549.550
CLTJAX10-3-2.54848
GNBMIA10-11-1148.549
KANCRD10-16.5-19.549.547
NYJBUF10-7-8.53836.5
OTINWE10+6.5+6.54750
PHIDAL10-7.5-945.548
PITCAR10-3.5-55153.5
RAISDG10+10.5+125046.5
RAMSEA10-10-9.55147
SFONYG10-3-34545.5
TAMWAS10-3.5-45151
BUFCHI9+10.5+103841.5
CARTAM9-6-4.555.553.5
CLEKAN9+7.5+10.551.552
DALOTI9-4.5-440.543.5
DENHTX9-1-2.546.548
MIANYJ9-3-2.54339
MINDET9-4.5-447.549
NORRAM9+1.5+0.55758
NWEGNB9-5-6.55656.5
RAVPIT9-1.5-0.546.546.5
SEASDG9-104850.5
SFORAI9+1.5+0.54441.5
WASATL9-1.5-1.546.550
BUFNWE8+13.5+1644.546
CARRAV8+2.5+24446
CHINYJ8-8.5-842.541.5
CINTAM8-3.5-45552.5
CRDSFO8+2.5+3.54044
DETSEA8-3-24848.5
HTXMIA8-7.5-84549
JAXPHI8+3.5+7.54445
KANDEN8-8.5-8.55351.5
MINNOR8+2.5+2.553.555
NYGWAS8+1+2.54442
PITCLE8-8.5-11.547.545
RAICLT8+3.5+25150
RAMGNB8-7.5-9.55754
ATLNYG7-4.5-75251
CHINWE7+1+248.552
CLTBUF7-7-743.545
CRDDEN7+1+0.542.547.5
JAXHTX7-3.5-542.541.5
KANCIN7-6.5-95656
MIADET7+3+1.54745
NYJMIN7+3.5+3.54546.5
PHICAR7-5-64546
RAVNOR7-2.5-2.54947
SDGOTI7-6.5-44646
SFORAM7+8+10.55249
TAMCLE7-3.5-6.552.550
WASDAL7+1+140.540.5
ATLTAM6-3-2.55755
CINPIT6-1.5+149.551
CLESDG6-1+24746.5
DALJAX6+3+2.53941.5
DENRAM6+7+7.55052
GNBSFO6-9-9.546.548.5
HTXBUF6-10.5-1040.542
MIACHI6+7.5+5.540.539.5
MINCRD6-10-1243.545
NWEKAN6-3.5-359.558.5
NYGPHI6+1.5+3.54546.5
NYJCLT6-2.5-1.547.549.5
OTIRAV6+2.5+243.546
RAISEA6+3+24845.5
WASCAR6+1+0.544.549
BUFOTI5+6+538.540.5
CARNYG5-7-843.545.5
CINMIA5-6.5-447.548.5
CLERAV5+3+5.544.544.5
DETGNB5-105050.5
HTXDAL5-3.5-445.547
KANJAX5-3-34848
NORWAS5-5.5-751.551.5
NWECLT5-10.5-1249.549
NYJDEN5-104345.5
PHIMIN5-3.5-54849.5
PITATL5-3.5-45755
SDGRAI5-5-55248
SEARAM5+7.5+8.550.552.5
SFOCRD5-3-440.535.5
ATLCIN4-3.5-452.552.5
CHITAM4-3-1.54649.5
CLTHTX4+1-0.54848
CRDSEA4+3.5+54040.5
DALDET4-2.5-5.543.544
DENKAN4+3.5+353.551.5
GNBBUF4-8.5-9.543.543.5
JAXNYJ4-7.5-840.540.5
NWEMIA4-6.5-650.549.5
NYGNOR4+3.5+451.553.5
OTIPHI4+3+2.541.543
PITRAV4-3-35152
RAICLE4-2.5-4.544.544.5
RAMMIN4-7.5-9.548.548.5
SDGSFO4-10.5-11.54647
ATLNOR3-1.5-25454.5
CARCIN3-2.5-2.54445.5
CLENYJ3-3-3.54138
CRDCHI3+5.5+33943.5
DETNWE3+7+85556.5
HTXNYG3-6.5-7.54446
JAXOTI3-10-93939.5
KANSFO3-5.5-5.55351.5
MIARAI3-3-3.54645.5
MINBUF3-16.5-16.54142
PHICLT3-6.5-7.545.545.5
RAMSDG3-7.5-7.54950
RAVDEN3-5.5-64643.5
SEADAL3-1-2.54043.5
TAMPIT3-1-15554
WASGNB3+2.5+3.545.550
ATLCAR2-5.5-74445
BUFSDG2+7.5+641.542
CHISEA2-4.5-2.542.546
CINRAV2-1-0.54345.5
DALNYG2-3-44241.5
DENRAI2-5.5-4.54443
GNBMIN2+2+0.54543.5
JAXNWE2+2+244.544
NORCLE2-10-10.55150.5
NYJMIA2-3-1.54344
OTIHTX2+3.5+34137
PITKAN2-4.5-5.55251
RAMCRD2-13.5-14.543.542
SFODET2-6-7.548.547.5
TAMPHI2+3+2.546.545
WASCLT2-6-6.54850.5
CARDAL1-2.5-1.542.544
CLEPIT1+3.5+44140.5
CLTCIN1+1+0.547.548.5
CRDWAS1-2-2.543.547
DENSEA1-3-242.544
DETNYJ1-7-74445.5
GNBCHI1-6.5-84541
MIAOTI1+1+0.543.543
MINSFO1-6-646.548
NORTAM1-10-115050
NWEHTX1-6-849.546
NYGJAX1+2.5+4.54345.5
PHIATL1-1-144.542
RAIRAM1+6.5+547.547
RAVBUF1-7.5-6.53937.5
SDGKAN1-3.5-14846

Model Accuracy

The following metrics are based on a comparison of our predictions to closing Vegas lines for each game (e.g., we use our model to predict a given game’s margin of victory, compare that prediction to the closing Vegas spread for that game, and mark the game as a win, loss, or push). The first set of results excludes games where the difference between our line and the betting market is negligible. Note that the 1.5 / 2 point thresholds were chosen based on optimization of out-of-sample prediction accuracy against the spread.

  • Spreads Differing from Vegas by 1.5+ points: 26-26-1 (50.0%)
  • Totals Differing from Vegas by 2+ points: 36-26 (58.1%)
  • Spreads – All Games: 56-67-25 (45.5%) – Last Week: 3-7-4 (30.0%)
  • Totals – All Games: 63-67-18 (48.5%) – Last Week: 5-7-2 (41.7%)

Updated 11/13/2018