Category Archives: Baseball

Wait, why does PML favor the Astros?

After four games, this World Series is tied at two games apiece and shaping up for an exciting finish! According to our PML model, Houston has a 53% chance of winning it all. This might come as a surprise; the majority of other prediction models, like FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings, give Los Angeles a slight 56% edge—not surprising, given the Dodgers play two of the three games at home. In contrast, PML favors the away team in every game from here on out. Ultimately, the difference between the 44% chance FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros and our 53% is not huge. Whichever you prefer, the Series is a toss-up. But it’s useful to dig into why we’re a bit higher on the Astros, and in the process, get to know our PML model a little better.

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MLB Wild Card Preview: PML 2017

Last year, on my personal blog, I posted about a model I created for evaluating baseball teams and predicting games. I’ve re-run this model for the 2017 season, and will use it to predict games and series throughout the playoffs, so make sure to keep checking back! If you’re interested in the full methodology, I’ve posted it here. For a quick look at how the model shakes out for the 2017 season, look here.

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Rating Pitchers and Offenses: PML 2017

Last year, on my personal blog, I posted about a model I created for evaluating baseball teams and predicting games. I’ve re-run this model for the 2017 season, so let’s take a look at the results! Be sure to check back throughout the playoffs, as I’ll use this model to predict games and series throughout the playoffs. I’ve already posted wild card PML predictions.

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A Poisson Maximum Likelihood Model for prediction and evaluation of MLB teams and pitchers

This article was originally published in 2016 at jackoliverwerner.wordpress.com.

Introduction

Sports are all about matchups: two teams battling it out on the court, rink, or field until one side emerges the winner. Head-to-head matchups are an especially prominent component of baseball. The game is an overarching matchup of one team against another, but it contains smaller competitions: a pitcher and a catcher trying to outscheme an opposing hitter, a second baseman playing cat-and-mouse to hold a runner close to the bag, or a starting pitcher with a scissors trying to get out of wearing throwback jerseys.

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Twins Rotation Preview: Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios

Previous installments in this series:

The Twins play their first game on Monday, so it’s time to wrap up our Twins rotation preview. On Thursday, it was announced that Adalberto Mejia will be the team’s fifth starter coming out of camp. Mejia is an exciting young prospect, but he has only pitched 2.1 innings of Major League ball. That’s not a lot of available PITCHf/x data. Rather than subjecting you to a deep dive into each of his 41 pitches for the Twins last year, we’re going a different route for our last preview.

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