2018 Peak NBA Statline Projection Model

Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) is a model used to project NBA success for college and International basketball players. PNSP considers each player’s individual and team statistics, physical measurements, high school scouting ranking, and age/experience. The PNSP model returns a single rating value from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating a “better” NBA prospect. We provide a detailed article outlining how PNSP is formulated here, and PNSP rankings from previous years can be found here. Below are a few highlights from PNSP’s ratings for the 2018 NBA Draft Class.

Highlights

First and foremost, it is important to remember that a player’s PNSP score is calculated relative to players within the same position. Ranking of players by PNSP across different positions is a different use than originally intended. For example, saying Luka Doncic is a “better” prospect than Jaren Jackson Jr because his 99.5 PNSP rating is higher than Jackson’s 97.1 is not necessarily true because they play different positions.

Anyway, PNSP’s 2018 top NBA Draft prospect is Luka Doncic. Doncic is a 6’8″ Combo Guard from Slovenia who recently became the youngest player to win the EuroLeague MVP. Following Doncic in PNSP rating are three big men: Jaren Jackson Jr. also known as Triple J, DeAndre Ayton, and Wendall Carter Jr. Lefty big man Marvin Bagley III ranks out at number 8 by PNSP. Bagley’s hype and pre-college scouting had him penciled in as a top 3 pick by many social media outlets, but former Duke teammate Wendall Carter Jr. rates higher by PNSP because his versatility projects better to today’s NBA by PNSP. While Bagley might rate lower relative to other top players, he still projects as a solid NBA prospect with a PNSP of 83.5.

Kenrich Williams and Jontay Porter are the biggest surprises in PNSP’s top 10. Williams is a 6’7″ forward from TCU that demonstrated the coveted ability to make plays and score the ball in many facets while still providing productive rebounding. Porter is a center from Missouri and brother to top-ranked prospect Michael Porter Jr. Similarly to Williams, Porter has shown an ability to knock down outside shots, distribute the ball, and play solid team defense. Big men with Williams’s and Porter’s skill sets have been (rightfully) rewarded by higher PNSP scores, but PNSP seems to have had a difficult time determining which players have enough functional athleticism to thrive in the NBA.

Overall, the 2018 NBA Draft doesn’t appear to have the depth of the 2017 Draft, notably in the lottery. PNSP agrees, ranking only 10 players with a PNSP above 80 compared to 13 players in 2017 (or, 12% of players in 2018 compared to 16% in 2017). Note that Michael Porter Jr. is not included in our models, as he only played 53 minutes this season.

Over the next couple days, we will be releasing our NBA Role Probability Model and Similarity Scores for 2018 Draft prospects. Following that, we will break down some of the top prospects by piecing together our three components in our Prospect Profiles, and ultimately create a consensus Model 284 draft board.

RKPlayerposPNSP
1Luka DoncicPG/SG99.5
2Jaren Jackson Jr.PF/C97.1
3Deandre AytonC95.8
4Wendell Carter Jr.C90.0
5Trae YoungPG89.9
6Mohamed BambaC84.2
7Marvin Bagley IIIPF/C83.2
8Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG/SG81.5
9Kenrich WilliamsPF80.5
10Collin SextonPG79.5
11Mikal BridgesSF76.0
12Elie OkoboPG75.4
13Moritz WagnerC75.3
14Josh OkogieSG75.2
15Rodions KurucsSF/PF75.0
16Khyri ThomasSG73.5
17Robert WilliamsC72.8
18D'Anthony MeltonPG/SG71.7
19Shamorie PondsPG71.6
20Troy BrownSG69.6
21Miles BridgesSF/PF68.7
22Donte DiVincenzoPG67.7
23Omari SpellmanPF65.7
24Bruce Brown Jr.SG64.8
25Dzanan MusaSF64.0
26Brandon McCoyC63.6
27Bruno FernandoC63.4
28Kevin HerveySF62.3
29Shake MiltonPG/SG60.6
30Jevon CarterPG59.7
31Gary ClarkPF58.1
32Jarred VanderbiltSF57.0
33Jacob EvansSF56.1
34Trevon DuvalPG55.9
35Alize JohnsonPF55.3
36Hamidou DialloSG55.1
37Melvin FrazierSF52.4
38Keita Bates-DiopPF52.0
39Lindell WiggintonPG51.3
40Kevin HuerterSG50.6
41Zhaire SmithSF48.1
42Kevin KnoxSF/PF47.3
43Jaylen HandsPG46.8
44Grayson AllenSG46.3
45Tony CarrPG45.4
46Ray SpaldingPF45.3
47Yante MatenPF44.3
48Bonzie ColsonPF44.2
49Chandler HutchisonSG/SF43.4
50Aaron HolidayPG41.8
51Rawle AlkinsSG41.4
52Malik NewmanPG/SG40.6
53Jalen BrunsonPG40.1
54Allonzo TrierSG39.4
55Landry ShametPG38.6
56Lonnie Walker IVSG37.1
57Justin JacksonSF36.4
58Jerome RobinsonPG35.4
59Jalen HudsonSG34.4
60Chimezie MetuPF/C33.5
61Kris WilkesSF/PF33.5
62Tyus BattleSG/SF33.1
63George KingSF32.4
64Kerwin RoachPG/SG31.4
65DJ HoggSF/PF31.3
66Doral MooreC29.7
67Sagaba KonateC27.2
68Kostas AntetokounmpoSF26.5
69Gary Trent Jr.SG23.6
70Jaylen BarfordSG23.0
71Keenan EvansPG21.1
72Isaac HaasC17.6
73Devonte' GrahamPG15.5
74Sviatoslav MykhailiukSG15.5
75Theo PinsonPG/SG12.7
76Devon HallSG3.1

*Data retrieved from Basketball ReferenceSports Reference, and DraftExpress.

Written by  Marc Richards and Jack Werner.