March Madness – Elite 8

The first table displays our predicted win probabilities for the Elite 8, followed by a table showing our predicted point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities. As an example of how to interpret the predictions, in the first row of the win probability table, our models give Florida a 61% chance of beating South Carolina (and, conversely, South Carolina a 39% chance of beating Florida). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. In the first row of the second table, our models have Florida (-6.3) beating South Carolina by 6.3 points, and Vegas has Florida (-3) beating South Carolina by 3 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Gonzaga vs. Xavier game as 141.7 (Vegas has 145.0), with a 74% chance of going over the total (note that the over probability model and the point total model are generated separately, so their predictions will not always agree).

Model Accuracy

While our bracket is dead and buried for the most part at this point, many of our predictions have still performed well on a per-game basis. To see our detailed predictions for all rounds, use the navigation menu under “College Basketball” above. Here is a quick summary of how each model has performed so far in this year’s tournament:

  • Win Probabilities: 41-14-1 (75%)
  • Teams with Win Probabilities of 80% or more: 21-3 (88%)
  • Against Vegas Spread: 30-23-3 (57%)
  • Our Totals vs. Vegas Totals: 35-19-2 (65%)
  • Our Over Probabilities: 38-18 (68%)
  • Games where our total differed from Vegas by 5 points or more AND our probability of going over/under was at least 80%: 15-5 (75%)

Elite 8 Win Probabilities

Seed 1 / Team 1Seed 2 / Team 2Team 1 ProbTeam 2 Prob
4 Florida7 South Car0.610.39
1 Gonzaga11 Xavier0.670.33
1 Kansas3 Oregon0.350.65
1 UNC2 Kentuky0.570.43

Elite 8 Spreads and Totals

4 FL8 SC-6.3-3.0135.0136.00.64
1 GON7 XAV-9.2-8.0141.7145.00.74
1 KU3 ORE+4.6-7152.9157.00.42
1 UNC2 KEN+0.7-2.5167.0161.00.94