The following table displays our predicted win probabilities for all eight Sweet 16 games. As an example of how to interpret the predictions, in the first row, our models give Florida a 21% chance of beating Wisconsin (and, conversely, Wisconsin a 79% chance of beating Florida). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. For more on our methodology, click here.
First Weekend Recap
In the first round of games, our average probabilities went 27-4-1 (87%), and our bracket predictions went 28-4 (to see our full bracket, click here). In the second round, our average probabilities went 10-6 (63%), while our bracket has 8 Sweet 16 teams remaining. Overall, our win probabilities are 37-10-1 (79%) so far this year, and teams with win probabilities of 0.80 or more have a record of 20-2 (91%). To see our first round probabilities, click here, and to see our second round probabilities, click here.
Sweet 16 Matchups
|Seed 1 / Team 1||Seed 2 / Team 2||Team 1 Prob||Team 2 Prob|
|4 Florida||8 Wisconsin||0.21||0.79|
|3 Baylor||7 South Car||0.47||0.53|
|1 Gonzaga||4 West Va||0.33||0.67|
|2 Arizona||11 Xavier||0.88||0.12|
|1 Kansas||4 Purdue||0.57||0.43|
|3 Oregon||7 Michigan||0.59||0.41|
|1 North Car||4 Butler||0.96||0.04|
|2 Kentucky||3 UCLA||0.34||0.66|