March Madness – Sweet 16 Probabilities

The following table displays our predicted win probabilities for all eight Sweet 16 games. As an example of how to interpret the predictions, in the first row, our models give Florida a 21% chance of beating Wisconsin (and, conversely, Wisconsin a 79% chance of beating Florida). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. For more on our methodology, click here.

First Weekend Recap

In the first round of games, our average probabilities went 27-4-1 (87%), and our bracket predictions went 28-4 (to see our full bracket, click here). In the second round, our average probabilities went 10-6 (63%), while our bracket has 8 Sweet 16 teams remaining. Overall, our win probabilities are 37-10-1 (79%) so far this year, and teams with win probabilities of 0.80 or more have a record of 20-2 (91%). To see our first round probabilities, click here, and to see our second round probabilities, click here.

Sweet 16 Matchups

Seed 1 / Team 1Seed 2 / Team 2Team 1 ProbTeam 2 Prob
4 Florida8 Wisconsin0.210.79
3 Baylor7 South Car0.470.53
1 Gonzaga4 West Va0.330.67
2 Arizona11 Xavier0.880.12
1 Kansas4 Purdue0.570.43
3 Oregon7 Michigan0.590.41
1 North Car4 Butler0.960.04
2 Kentucky3 UCLA0.340.66