The following table displays our predicted point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities for all eight Sweet 16 games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models have Florida (+2.2) losing to Wisconsin by 2.2 points, and Vegas has Florida (-2) beating Wisconsin by 1.5 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Florida-Wisconsin game as 131.5 (Vegas also has 131.5), with a 57% chance of going over the total.
First Weekend Recap
In the first two rounds, considering games where our total differed from Vegas by 5 points or more AND our probability of going over/under was at least 80%, our totals have gone 14-4 (78%). Considering all games, our totals are 31-16-1 (66%) on Over/Under predictions. On point spreads, the model is 26-20-2 (57%) against the spread, finishing 9-6-1 (60%) in 2nd round games. To see all of the model’s first round spreads and point totals, click here, and to see all of the model’s second round spreads and point totals, click here. For more on the historical performance of our point spread and point total models, click here.
Sweet 16 Matchups
|4 FL||8 WIS||+2.2||-2.0||131.5||131.5||0.57|
|3 BAY||7 SC||-3.3||-3.5||147.1||135.0||0.75|
|1 GONZ||4 WVU||-7.6||-3||151.8||147.5||0.19|
|2 AZ||11 XAV||-9.2||-7.5||140.4||144.5||0.86|
|1 KU||4 PUR||+0.4||-5||161.6||156.0||0.82|
|3 ORE||7 MICH||-6.0||+1||145.2||147.0||0.20|
|1 UNC||4 BUT||-8.1||-7.5||161.4||153.0||0.76|
|2 KEN||3 UCLA||+4.6||+1||171.1||165.0||0.99|