Category Archives: March Madness

Final Four Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for Final Four games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

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My Model Monday: Biggest March Madness Upsets

This year’s NCAA tournament brought some crazy upsets, including the first-ever 9 vs. 11 Elite Eight matchup and first ever 16 seed to win a game, which is being talked about as one of the biggest upsets in sports history. In today’s My Model Monday, I see if the numbers back up that claim, or if there are other dogs that give UMBC a run for their money, and see if there is anything we can learn from the teams that won. Continue reading My Model Monday: Biggest March Madness Upsets

Elite 8 Predictions | March Madness

The article below provides our predictions for Elite 8 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

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Model 284 Podcast: Sweet 16 Matchups

In the third episode of the Model 284 Podcast, Sam Walczak and Marc Richards recap this past weekend of madness, go through our models’ predictions for the Sweet 16 matchups, and cover our probabilities for each team moving forward in the tournament.

Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2

My Model Monday: Are You Beating the Model?

The first weekend of March Madness 2018 is in the books, and it was wild. When all was said and done, the same number of 11-seeds made the Sweet 16 as 1-seeds. Half of teams seeded 1-3 were knocked out in these first two rounds. And of course, the tournament saw a 1-seed exit in the first round for the first time ever (at least in the men’s tournament). It’s hard to imagine anyone’s bracket coming out of a weekend like this looking good. How bad was it? I dug into Model 284’s own March Madness contest to find out.

Continue reading My Model Monday: Are You Beating the Model?

Sweet 16 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all Sweet 16 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

Continue reading Sweet 16 Predictions | March Madness 2018

Round 2 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all 2nd Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

Continue reading Round 2 Predictions | March Madness 2018

Round 1 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all 1st Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

Continue reading Round 1 Predictions | March Madness 2018

Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018

The article below discusses how our models view this year’s tournament field, and which teams are most likely to make a deep run. This is done in context of 60,000 simulations1 of this year’s tournament, which were performed using win probability predictions from our models. That simulation ultimately provides probabilities of each team advancing to the Sweet 16, Final Four, etc. Note that play-in game teams are subject to change.  Continue reading Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018