March Madness – Final Four

The article below gives our predictions for the Final Four games for this weekend, including our win probabilities, point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities. For some additional background on our models, click here.

Model Accuracy

To see our detailed predictions from all previous rounds, use the navigation menu under “College Basketball” above. Here is a quick summary of how each model has performed so far in this year’s tournament:

  • Win Probabilities: 46-15-1 (75%)
  • Teams with Win Probabilities of 80% or more: 22-3 (88%)
  • Against Vegas Spread: 34-25-3 (58%)
  • Our Totals vs. Vegas Totals: 38-22-2 (63%)
  • Our Over Probabilities: 41-21 (66%)
  • Games where our total differed from Vegas by 5 points or more AND our probability of going over/under was at least 80%: 15-6 (71%)

Gonzaga vs. South Carolina

Win Probability: Gonzaga 85% | South Car 15%
Our Spread: Gonzaga by 13
Vegas Spread: Gonzaga by 6.5
Our Total: 137.5
Vegas Total: 138.5
Our Probability of Going Over the Vegas Total: 25.4%

North Carolina vs. Oregon

Win Probability: UNC 54% | Oregon 46%
Our Spread: Oregon by 1.8
Vegas Spread: UNC by 5
Our Total: 152.3
Vegas Total: 151.5
Our Probability of Going Over the Vegas Total: 86.1%

Gonzaga vs. North Carolina

Win Probability: UNC 69% | Gonzaga 31%
Our Spread: Gonzaga by 2.7
Vegas Spread: UNC by 1.5
Our Total: 135.2
Vegas Total: 153.5
Our Probability of Going Over the Vegas Total: 48.0%