Team Defense Projections – Week 5

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

In our first BYE week of the year, streaming season has officially opened for the Fantasy-goers that stick to their D/ST guns, especially with Denver on its bye. I’m switching the format up a bit this week by splitting out my must starts, favorable streaming options, and teams I’m staying away from that otherwise are appealing. Good luck in Week 5.

Must Starts:

 MIN @ CHI  (Proj: 11.4 pts)

BAL vs OAK (Proj: 6.9 pts)

PIT vs JAX (Proj: 5.9 pts)

Streamers I Like:

OAK @ BAL (Proj: 7.8 pts) This matchup garners a lot of D/ST appeal – particularly for Baltimore – with Derek Carr sidelined and EJ Manuel being the next man up. While that’s valid in my eyes, I think there’s a lot of value in playing the Raiders D/ST this week against an anemic Baltimore offense that is averaging a mere 15.0 points per game. In terms of fantasy scoring, Baltimore ranks 29th in points allowed at an average of 10 PPG for opposing defenses.

CIN vs BUF (Proj: 5.3 pts): Although they haven’t forced many turnovers, Cincy has been solid all season long allowing only 16.8 points per game to opponents, good for 3rd best in the NFL. Although Buffalo sits atop the AFC East at 3-1 with wins over Denver and Atlanta, they’ve stayed relevant because of their defense and still rank in the bottom half of the league in most major offensive categories. The Model has the Bengals at a modest 5.3 points (23rd) this week, but I’m calling for a top 10 finish on the road and a win to boot. The Red Rocket led Bengals are turning the corner!

TEN @ MIA (Proj: 10.5): Even with the threat of Jay Cutler splitting out wide in the wildcat formation again this weekend, Tennessee is a valuable streaming option against a Dolphins team that has yet to surpass the 20 point mark and was shutout by the Saints last week. Owned in only 18.3% of leagues (and reasonably so after consecutive negative scoring weeks), snag the Titans if you can as they match up with Indy and Cleveland in their next two games before going on bye.

Steer Clear:

CLE vs NYJ and NYJ @ CLE (Proj: 10.4 pts, 2.2 pts)

SEA @ LAR (Proj: 7.5 pts)

KC @ HOU (Proj: 0.3 pts) – ESPN’s top projected D/ST this week (Proj: 8.2 pts) Trust the Model!


1Vikings D/ST@ Bears11.4
2Titans D/ST@ Dolphins10.5
3Browns D/STvs. Jets10.4
4Bears D/STvs. Vikings10.0
5Dolphins D/STvs. Titans9.5
6Patriots D/ST@ Buccaneers9.3
7Buccaneers D/STvs. Patriots8.7
8Cardinals D/ST@ Eagles8.4
9Raiders D/STvs. Ravens7.8
10Seahawks D/ST@ Rams7.5
11Texans D/STvs. Chiefs7.5
12Lions D/STvs. Panthers7.5
13Giants D/STvs. Chargers7.1
14Jaguars D/ST@ Steelers6.9
15Eagles D/STvs. Cardinals6.9
16Ravens D/ST@ Raiders6.9
17Panthers D/ST@ Lions6.8
18Rams D/STvs. Seahawks6.5
19Colts D/STvs. 49ers6.0
20Steelers D/STvs. Jaguars5.9
21Chargers D/ST@ Giants5.9
22Bills D/ST@ Bengals5.8
23Bengals D/STvs. Bills5.3
24Packers D/ST@ Packers5.3
25Packers D/STvs. Packers4.1
2649ers D/ST@ Colts3.7
27Jets D/ST@ Browns2.2
28Chiefs D/ST@ Texans0.3