The table below provides our predictions for all games in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The table will be updated after each round of the tournament, with new games/predictions added as they become available. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided above the table, and a summary of the historical accuracy of each model is provided at the end of the post. See our related posts on our Full 2023 Tournament Bracket and our Tournament Simulation results.
Win Probability & Spread Predictions
Win Probabilities – For each game, “Team1 Win Prob” represents our model’s probability that Team1 (the better-seeded team) wins the game. Probabilities below 50 indicate that Team2 is more likely to win the game.
Spreads – The “284 Spread” is our model’s prediction of how many points Team1 will win by. For both Vegas and 284 Spreads, negative values indicate Team1 is favored, while positives indicate Team2 is favored.
Totals – The Vegas Total can be compared to our “284 Tot,” which is our model’s prediction of how many points will be scored in the game.
| Team1 | Team2 | Rd | Team1 Win Prob | Vegas Spread | 284 Spread | Vegas Total | 284 Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 UConn | 5 San Diego St | 6 | 0.61 | -7.5 | -3.3 | 132.5 | 135.3 |
| 5 SDSU | 9 FL Atlantic | 5 | 0.49 | -2 | -0.6 | 132 | 138.1 |
| 4 UConn | 5 Miami | 5 | 0.61 | -5.5 | -5.4 | 149.5 | 146.8 |
| 3 Kansas St | 9 FL Atlantic | 4 | 0.41 | -2 | 2.3 | 144 | 145.7 |
| 3 Gonzaga | 4 UConn | 4 | 0.62 | 2.5 | -4.1 | 154 | 153 |
| 5 SDSU | 6 Creighton | 4 | 0.46 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 133.5 | 138.6 |
| 2 Texas | 5 Miami | 4 | 0.65 | -4 | -6.1 | 150 | 147 |
| 3 Kansas St | 7 Mich St | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 0.6 | 137.5 | 138.3 |
| 4 UConn | 8 Arkansas | 3 | 0.60 | -3.5 | -2.5 | 139.5 | 139 |
| 4 Tennessee | 9 FL Atlantic | 3 | 0.57 | -5.5 | -2.7 | 131.5 | 136.5 |
| 2 UCLA | 3 Gonzaga | 3 | 0.39 | -2 | 3.5 | 145 | 151.6 |
| 1 Alabama | 5 San Diego St | 3 | 0.63 | -7.5 | -3.8 | 136.5 | 143.7 |
| 1 Houston | 5 Miami | 3 | 0.71 | -7 | -8.1 | 138 | 138.8 |
| 6 Creighton | 15 Princeton | 3 | 0.67 | -9.5 | -6.6 | 140 | 146 |
| 2 Texas | 3 Xavier | 3 | 0.63 | -4 | -4.8 | 148.5 | 141.8 |
| 3 Xavier | 11 Pittsburgh | 2 | 0.60 | -5.5 | -2.7 | 152 | 143 |
| 3 Kansas St | 6 Kentucky | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 6.5 | 145 | 142 |
| 2 Marquette | 7 Mich St | 2 | 0.74 | -2.5 | -5.3 | 141 | 142.1 |
| 4 UConn | 5 St. Mary's | 2 | 0.55 | -3.5 | -1.2 | 128.5 | 128.3 |
| 3 Baylor | 6 Creighton | 2 | 0.55 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 145 | 145.6 |
| 9 FL Atlantic | 16 Fair Dick | 2 | 0.85 | -13.5 | -14.3 | 149.5 | 150.9 |
| 4 Indiana | 5 Miami | 2 | 0.46 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 145.5 | 143.8 |
| 3 Gonzaga | 6 TCU | 2 | 0.73 | -4.5 | -7.5 | 156.5 | 153.3 |
| 5 SDSU | 13 Furman | 2 | 0.55 | -6 | -2.6 | 138 | 142.5 |
| 4 Tennessee | 5 Duke | 2 | 0.49 | 3 | -0.4 | 128.5 | 131 |
| 1 Kansas | 8 Arkansas | 2 | 0.73 | -3.5 | -5 | 143.5 | 141.3 |
| 7 Missouri | 15 Princeton | 2 | 0.56 | -7 | -1.6 | 148.5 | 152.1 |
| 1 Houston | 9 Auburn | 2 | 0.77 | -5.5 | -8.8 | 131 | 133.3 |
| 2 Texas | 10 Penn St | 2 | 0.75 | -5.5 | -8.4 | 140 | 141.8 |
| 2 UCLA | 7 NWest | 2 | 0.80 | -8 | -10.3 | 127 | 132.1 |
| 1 Alabama | 8 Maryland | 2 | 0.83 | -8.5 | -9.6 | 144 | 147.3 |
| 7 Mich St | 10 USC | 1 | 0.48 | -2 | -0.2 | 137.5 | 137.3 |
| 3 Xavier | 14 Kennesaw St | 1 | 0.78 | -12.5 | -8.9 | 153.5 | 147.6 |
| 3 Baylor | 14 UCSB | 1 | 0.74 | -10.5 | -10.1 | 141.5 | 141 |
| 5 St. Mary's | 12 VCU | 1 | 0.62 | -4 | -5.1 | 123 | 126.3 |
| 2 Marquette | 15 Vermont | 1 | 0.78 | -10.5 | -7.6 | 144 | 145.4 |
| 6 Iowa St | 11 Pittsburgh | 1 | 0.54 | -4.5 | -2.3 | 131.5 | 133.8 |
| 6 Creighton | 11 NC St | 1 | 0.62 | -5 | -5 | 149 | 147.7 |
| 4 UConn | 13 Iona | 1 | 0.53 | -9 | -2.7 | 141.5 | 140.2 |
| 1 Purdue | 16 Fair Dick | 1 | 0.90 | -23 | -19.6 | 145 | 145.6 |
| 6 Kentucky | 11 Providence | 1 | 0.68 | -4 | -6.4 | 143.5 | 142.6 |
| 5 Miami | 12 Drake | 1 | 0.54 | -2 | -0.2 | 146 | 146.1 |
| 3 Gonzaga | 14 Grand Canyon | 1 | 0.87 | -15.5 | -17.2 | 155.5 | 158 |
| 8 Memphis | 9 FL Atlantic | 1 | 0.55 | -2 | 0.5 | 152.5 | 143.1 |
| 3 Kansas St | 14 Montana St | 1 | 0.69 | -8 | -6.2 | 139.5 | 141.5 |
| 4 Indiana | 13 Kent St | 1 | 0.51 | -4.5 | -0.8 | 140.5 | 142.7 |
| 6 TCU | 11 Arizona St | 1 | 0.63 | -5 | -4.8 | 142 | 140.6 |
| 8 Maryland | 9 West Va | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | -0.3 | 137.5 | 140.7 |
| 4 Virginia | 13 Furman | 1 | 0.57 | -5.5 | -2.3 | 132 | 136.6 |
| 7 Missouri | 10 Utah St | 1 | 0.48 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 155 | 153.4 |
| 1 Kansas | 16 Howard | 1 | 0.89 | -22 | -19.4 | 145.5 | 146.6 |
| 1 Alabama | 16 TX AM CC | 1 | 0.88 | -24 | -24 | 155 | 154.6 |
| 5 SDSU | 12 Charleston | 1 | 0.54 | -5 | -2.5 | 141.5 | 143.3 |
| 2 Arizona | 15 Princeton | 1 | 0.83 | -14 | -12.7 | 154.5 | 155.2 |
| 8 Arkansas | 9 Illinois | 1 | 0.51 | -2 | -0.7 | 143.5 | 140.7 |
| 8 Iowa | 9 Auburn | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | -0.6 | 152 | 155.5 |
| 5 Duke | 12 Oral Roberts | 1 | 0.58 | -6.5 | -3.7 | 146 | 150.5 |
| 2 Texas | 15 Colgate | 1 | 0.78 | -13.5 | -12.2 | 147.5 | 148.4 |
| 7 NWest | 10 Boise St | 1 | 0.53 | -1.5 | -0.7 | 128 | 127.8 |
| 1 Houston | 16 N Kentucky | 1 | 0.85 | -19.5 | -17.7 | 122.5 | 128.3 |
| 4 Tennessee | 13 Louisiana | 1 | 0.67 | -11 | -7.1 | 136.5 | 139.1 |
| 7 Texas A&M | 10 Penn St | 1 | 0.55 | -3.5 | -0.9 | 134.5 | 138.6 |
| 2 UCLA | 15 UNC Ash | 1 | 0.88 | -17.5 | -18.2 | 134.5 | 142.7 |
| 16 TX AM CC | 16 SE MO St | 0 | 0.64 | -3.5 | -3.8 | 155.5 | 155.1 |
| 11 Miss St | 11 Pittsburgh | 0 | 0.51 | -2.5 | -0.7 | 133 | 135.5 |
| 16 Texas So | 16 Fair Dick | 0 | 0.49 | -2 | -1.6 | 148 | 149.7 |
| 11 Arizona St | 11 Nevada | 0 | 0.53 | -2 | -0.2 | 133.5 | 140 |
Model Accuracy
Below is a summary of how each individual model performed on all 2017-2022 tournament games, with 2023 results being added to the tables as they become available. Note that spread/cover and total/over models are graded against the numbers as they are shown in the tables above. Additionally, links to detailed recaps of all predictions from previous tournaments can be found by following links in the header menu above.
| Year | Win Prob | 284 Spread | 284 Total | |||
| Rec | % | Rec | % | Rec | % | |
| 2017 | 47-15 | 0.76 | 34-26 | 0.57 | 39-22 | 0.64 |
| 2018 | 44-19 | 0.70 | 32-28 | 0.53 | 38-25 | 0.60 |
| 2019 | 45-18 | 0.71 | 24-36 | 0.40 | 32-29 | 0.52 |
| 2020 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2021 | 43-20 | 0.68 | 33-27 | 0.55 | 36-22 | 0.62 |
| 2022 | 46-21 | 0.69 | 32-34 | 0.49 | 41-24 | 0.63 |
| 2023 | 44-23 | 0.65 | 32-35 | 0.48 | 31-35 | 0.47 |
| Total | 269-116 | 0.70 | 187-186 | 0.50 | 217-157 | 0.58 |
The table below only considers games where predictions differ from Vegas spread/total by 5 points or more (e.g., The Vegas Spread is Kentucky -5 and our prediction is Kentucky -10 or more).
| Year | 284 Spread (5+ Pt Dif) |
284 Total (5+ Pt Dif) | ||
| Rec | % | Rec | % | |
| 2017 | 14-15 | 0.48 | 23-8 | 0.74 |
| 2018 | 10-9 | 0.53 | 18-15 | 0.55 |
| 2019 | 10-9 | 0.53 | 10-11 | 0.48 |
| 2020 | – | – | – | – |
| 2021 | 9-3 | 0.75 | 12-4 | 0.75 |
| 2022 | 2-1 | 0.67 | 6-6 | 0.50 |
| 2023 | 3-2 | 0.60 | 7-6 | 0.54 |
| Total | 48-39 | 0.55 | 76-50 | 0.60 |