2018 NBA Role Probability Model

The NBA Role Probability Model predicts the likelihood that a given college basketball player becomes an All-Star, starter, bench player, or does not make it in the NBA. The model considers individual box score statistics, team-level statistics (e.g. strength of schedule), physical measurements, high school scouting rank, position, and age/experience to predict the probability of a player landing each NBA role. For more detail on how this model is formulated, see this article. The Role Probability model is one of three pieces that we use to evaluate the NBA potential of college and international players, with the other two being PNSP and Similarity Scores. In the table below, you can find the model’s predicted probabilities for each 2018 prospect landing in a given role in the NBA.

Highlights

Luka Doncic breaks the model yet again (as he did with this year’s PNSP model). Doncic comes out with an 89.5% All-Star Probability, which does not seem reasonable. If you break down the model to see what is driving this outlier prediction, you come away with the conclusion that their simply has not been a player of Luka’s age (19.1 years old) in Europe with his amount of production. While we wouldn’t agree that there is a 90% chance Doncic becomes an All-Star, his production certainly instills confidence in his ability to translate to the NBA. Other notable players with modeled All-Star probabilities above 70% include Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Lonzo Ball, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and DeMarcus Cousins.

Next up are a pair of behemoth big man in DeAndre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba. While both have high All-Star probabilities, Bamba’s Non-NBA probability (10%) is much higher than Ayton’s (4%), which aligns with institution, given a frequent player comp for Bamba is Hasheem Thabeet. These two are intriguing, as history has shown that when players with extreme physical advantages also have enough basketball skill/IQ, they can end up as generational talents (e.g., Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, etc.). These high All-Star probabilities indicate that this is well within the range of outcomes for Ayton and Bamba.

Miles and Mikal Bridges rate among the top Starter probabilities (55% and 62%, respectively). Both Bridges are wing players that have shown an ability to score in a variety of ways and play multiple positions. Their experience, physical measurements, and diverse skill make them adaptable to any lineup. While their upside seems a bit limited, we should be confident that the Bridges will be positive contributors to an NBA lineup in some fashion.

Stay tuned for the release of our 2018 Similarity Scores and other draft coverage leading up to June’s NBA Draft. And as always #TrustTheModel

PLAYERPOSALL-STARSTARTERBENCHNON-NBA
Luka DoncicPG/SG89.4%10.1%0.0%1.0%
Deandre AytonC59.3%31.1%5.7%3.9%
Mohamed BambaC50.2%35.2%4.9%9.8%
Trae YoungPG43.1%37.8%5.9%13.2%
Marvin Bagley IIIPF/C38.6%47.6%8.7%5.1%
Wendell Carter Jr.C38.0%48.6%5.3%3.0%
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG/SG36.4%30.7%10.2%22.6%
Jaren Jackson Jr.PF/C30.5%48.5%15.4%5.6%
Collin SextonPG30.2%40.8%17.8%11.2%
Robert WilliamsC23.6%43.2%20.1%13.2%
Elie OkoboPG19.2%44.7%18.9%17.2%
Khyri ThomasSG18.2%50.0%16.2%15.6%
Miles BridgesSF/PF16.5%54.6%17.8%11.1%
Josh OkogieSG16.4%13.4%45.3%24.8%
Troy BrownSG16.1%37.5%12.0%34.7%
Melvin FrazierSF12.6%44.8%22.5%20.0%
Theo PinsonPG/SG12.3%30.2%10.0%47.6%
Mikal BridgesSF12.0%61.7%19.8%6.5%
Bruce Brown Jr.SG11.7%23.3%12.8%52.2%
Trevon DuvalPG11.6%42.0%27.5%18.9%
Zhaire SmithSF11.3%39.4%25.1%24.2%
Kevin HuerterSG10.7%35.3%39.6%14.4%
Brandon McCoyC10.5%35.7%19.4%34.4%
Bruno FernandoC10.1%40.9%27.0%22.0%
Hamidou DialloSG9.6%16.5%19.6%54.2%
Dzanan MusaSF9.2%49.5%20.6%20.8%
Omari SpellmanPF9.0%29.4%33.3%28.2%
Alize JohnsonPF8.6%29.2%33.9%28.4%
Jaylen HandsPG8.4%31.4%18.2%42.0%
Tony CarrPG8.4%11.5%43.6%36.5%
Chandler HutchisonSG/SF8.4%31.7%23.5%36.4%
Jevon CarterPG7.9%32.9%33.3%25.9%
Rawle AlkinsSG7.5%16.8%42.7%33.0%
Ray SpaldingPF7.3%40.3%13.7%38.7%
Moritz WagnerC7.3%51.7%31.9%9.1%
Kevin KnoxSF/PF7.1%45.5%32.0%15.4%
Landry ShametPG7.1%25.0%44.2%23.7%
Jarred VanderbiltSF6.9%33.0%13.0%45.3%
Donte DiVincenzoPG6.9%36.7%37.6%18.8%
Keita Bates-DiopPF6.9%25.8%35.0%32.3%
Doral MooreC6.8%32.5%24.6%36.2%
Shake MiltonPG/SG6.8%15.0%50.5%27.7%
Justin JacksonSF6.7%29.6%34.3%29.3%
Kevin HerveySF6.7%22.0%26.0%45.3%
D'Anthony MeltonPG/SG6.5%40.0%29.6%23.8%
Shamorie PondsPG6.4%48.0%21.6%23.9%
Kostas AntetokounmpoSF5.5%25.8%4.9%63.8%
Aaron HolidayPG5.4%25.2%40.7%28.7%
Malik NewmanPG/SG5.3%40.6%42.1%11.9%
Gary ClarkPF5.3%31.9%37.7%25.1%
Jalen BrunsonPG5.3%36.5%34.8%23.4%
Allonzo TrierSG5.2%34.5%37.4%22.9%
Jacob EvansSF4.9%24.5%50.5%20.2%
Kenrich WilliamsPF3.9%48.2%27.9%20.0%
Lindell WiggintonPG3.5%12.2%23.8%60.6%
Lonnie Walker IVSG3.5%26.8%19.1%50.6%
Kris WilkesSF/PF3.5%27.3%27.5%41.7%
Isaac HaasC3.5%11.0%49.4%36.2%
Gary Trent Jr.SG3.4%25.5%37.4%33.8%
Jaylen BarfordSG3.3%16.7%48.9%31.0%
Grayson AllenSG3.2%25.4%43.4%28.1%
Bonzie ColsonPF2.6%31.0%27.7%38.7%
Jerome RobinsonPG2.6%18.3%37.2%42.0%
Rodions KurucsSF/PF2.6%68.3%22.9%6.1%
Devonte' GrahamPG2.5%14.2%47.6%35.6%
Chimezie MetuPF/C2.3%21.7%38.6%37.4%
George KingSF2.2%9.7%40.2%47.8%
Keenan EvansPG2.1%13.2%26.7%57.9%
Sagaba KonateC2.1%17.5%45.5%35.0%
DJ HoggSF/PF1.9%14.6%37.3%46.2%
Tyus BattleSG/SF1.8%11.8%48.3%38.1%
Jalen HudsonSG1.6%12.7%29.8%56.0%
Devon HallSG1.4%12.8%46.1%39.7%
Yante MatenPF1.3%5.8%36.6%56.2%
Kerwin RoachPG/SG1.2%12.9%22.7%63.2%
Sviatoslav MykhailiukSG0.6%8.0%50.5%40.9%

*Data retrieved from Basketball ReferenceSports Reference, and DraftExpress.

Written by  Marc Richards and Jack Werner.