QB Fantasy Predictions – Week 5

Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 5 of 2017. Note that players who have yet to play 7 NFL games are not included in our predictions.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 5 Projections

Last week, our top 6 projected QBs averaged 21.3 fantasy points, and 5 of the 6 finished as QB1s (top 12). Week 5 should be a fun one for fans, as 4 of the top 5 projected QBs will be playing against one another (Rodgers vs. Prescott and Brady vs. Winston). Our total models also point to plenty of points being scored in the TB/NE and DAL/GB games – get ready to see some high scoring football.

Eli Manning had a surprisingly good game in Week 4, and the model likes that trend to continue in Week 5, projecting him to score 17.7 points (QB8). Eli is slated as a home favorite with a decent total (44.5), has attempted 43 passes per game over his last 7 (the highest among all starters this week), and faces a middling Chargers pass defense that ranks 14th in Fantasy Points Above Expectation vs. QBs over their last 7 games, and 20th in pass defense DVOA. This game could take a turn for the worse for Eli if the Giants offensive line is too busy worrying about the Pythagorean theorem to pick up this pass rush, as the Chargers currently lead the NFL in Sack Rate.

Jay Cutler has been a popular choice as a QB streamer the past couple of weeks, as he faced cupcake matchups vs the Saints and Jets. Smokin Jay put up pathetic QB26 and QB29 marks in those matchups and has yet to top 230 passing yards on the year. Somehow, Cutler has another beautiful matchup this week against a Titans defense that has given up the most fantasy points (21.9) and fantasy points above expectation (7.7) to QBs over the last 7 games. Our model isn’t falling into this trap and projects Cutler for only 13.6 points (QB21). While there are reasons to like Cutler this week, he is a very risky play, and our model indicates he will disappoint once again.

1Aaron RodgersGBDAL20.8
2Dak PrescottDALGB20.6
3Tom BradyNETB20.4
4Russell WilsonSEALAR18.9
5Jameis WinstonTBNE18.7
6Alex SmithKCHOU18.5
7Carson WentzPHIARI18.3
8Eli ManningNYGLAC17.7
9Ben RoethlisbergerPITJAC17.7
10Matthew StaffordDETCAR16.8
11Cam NewtonCARDET16.5
12Jared GoffLARSEA15.5
13Tyrod TaylorBUFCIN15.5
14Marcus MariotaTENMIA15.3
15Case KeenumMINCHI15.0
16Andy DaltonCINBUF14.5
17Brian HoyerSFIND14.4
18Philip RiversLACNYG13.9
19Blake BortlesJACPIT13.9
20Carson PalmerARIPHI13.7
21Jay CutlerMIATEN13.6
22Joe FlaccoBALOAK11.7
23Josh McCownNYJCLE11.5