Below is a table of our NBA Elo ratings for the 2018-2019 season along with win totals and playoff probabilities derived from 500 simulations of the 2018-2019 season. Check back over the course of the season as we will continue to update our elo ratings, along with win projections and playoff probabilities.
Elo ratings are a zero-sum rating system where teams are rewarded points after a win and subtracted points after a loss. The magnitude of this adjustment is larger for more unexpected outcomes. For instance, the Golden State Warriors would not receive much of a boost in their elo if they beat the Phoenix Suns because this is what we would expect to happen, but the Phoenix Suns would receive a larger increase in their elo if they managed to upset the Warriors. At Model284, our elos take into account each team’s prior elo rating, margin of victory, home court advantage, and the number of days off for each team prior to the game. Elo ratings do not immediately adjust for injuries, or roster changes from free agency and trades.
|Golden State Warriors||1730||59.6||>0.99|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||1662||52.8||>0.99|
|Portland Trail Blazers||1600||49.1||0.98|
|San Antonio Spurs||1574||47.1||0.96|
|Los Angeles Clippers||1511||44.6||0.77|
|Los Angeles Lakers||1467||38.9||0.05|
|New Orleans Pelicans||1453||36.7||0.01|
|New York Knicks||1214||16.6||<0.01|
*Last update on February 19th.