NBA Elo Ratings and Simulation

Below is a table of our NBA Elo ratings for the 2018-2019 season along with win totals and playoff probabilities derived from 500 simulations of the 2018-2019 season. Check back over the course of the season as we will continue to update our elo ratings, along with win projections and playoff probabilities.

Elo ratings are a zero-sum rating system where teams are rewarded points after a win and subtracted points after a loss. The magnitude of this adjustment is larger for more unexpected outcomes. For instance, the Golden State Warriors would not receive much of a boost in their elo if they beat the Phoenix Suns because this is what we would expect to happen, but the Phoenix Suns would receive a larger increase in their elo if they managed to upset the Warriors. At Model284, our elos take into account each team’s prior elo rating, margin of victory, home court advantage, and the number of days off for each team prior to the game. Elo ratings do not immediately adjust for injuries, or roster changes from free agency and trades.

TeamEloWinsPlayoff Probability
Milwaukee Bucks174460.8>0.99
Golden State Warriors170656.7>0.99
Houston Rockets170652.6>0.99
Portland Trail Blazers167552.2>0.99
Toronto Raptors165857.3>0.99
Utah Jazz164950.2>0.99
Philadelphia 76ers164653.2>0.99
Denver Nuggets162954.1>0.99
Los Angeles Clippers159849.2>0.99
San Antonio Spurs159647.3>0.99
Orlando Magic1574410.83
Oklahoma City Thunder154246.5>0.99
Detroit Pistons154142.70.99
Boston Celtics152847.5>0.99
Indiana Pacers151747.9>0.99
Miami Heat151540.30.42
Brooklyn Nets149540.90.75
Los Angeles Lakers146936.5<0.01
Minnesota Timberwolves145936.6<0.01
Sacramento Kings145740.3<0.01
Charlotte Hornets145337.20.01
Washington Wizards141434.4<0.01
Atlanta Hawks137329.1<0.01
Memphis Grizzlies137232.5<0.01
New Orleans Pelicans136533.5<0.01
Dallas Mavericks136032.7<0.01
Chicago Bulls130222.8<0.01
Cleveland Cavaliers129320.4<0.01
Phoenix Suns120118.3<0.01
New York Knicks117515.4<0.01

*Last update on April 1st.

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