NBA Elo Ratings and Simulation

Below is a table of our NBA Elo ratings for the 2018-2019 season along with win totals and playoff probabilities derived from 500 simulations of the 2018-2019 season. Check back over the course of the season as we will continue to update our elo ratings, along with win projections and playoff probabilities.

Elo ratings are a zero-sum rating system where teams are rewarded points after a win and subtracted points after a loss. The magnitude of this adjustment is larger for more unexpected outcomes. For instance, the Golden State Warriors would not receive much of a boost in their elo if they beat the Phoenix Suns because this is what we would expect to happen, but the Phoenix Suns would receive a larger increase in their elo if they managed to upset the Warriors. At Model284, our elos take into account each team’s prior elo rating, margin of victory, home court advantage, and the number of days off for each team prior to the game. Elo ratings do not immediately adjust for injuries, or roster changes from free agency and trades.

TeamEloWinsPlayoff Probability
Golden State Warriors172361.9>0.99
Toronto Raptors169462.1>0.99
Portland Trail Blazers166556.20.99
Milwaukee Bucks164958.2>0.99
Utah Jazz161950.90.91
Denver Nuggets1616510.93
Oklahoma City Thunder160049.50.87
Boston Celtics159651.2>0.99
Houston Rockets1587470.77
Philadelphia 76ers158149.40.99
Indiana Pacers155147.50.97
New Orleans Pelicans154244.50.62
Charlotte Hornets152844.60.92
Los Angeles Clippers1526450.65
San Antonio Spurs151942.80.5
Los Angeles Lakers151641.60.41
Minnesota Timberwolves147136.20.14
Miami Heat145936.90.51
Brooklyn Nets145837.70.59
Detroit Pistons145036.60.5
Sacramento Kings142735.10.1
Washington Wizards142533.40.29
Memphis Grizzlies141934.60.1
Cleveland Cavaliers141728.80.08
New York Knicks136126.50.03
Dallas Mavericks135926.20.01
Orlando Magic135529.20.09
Chicago Bulls135327.10.03
Atlanta Hawks127719.9<0.01
Phoenix Suns127118.4<0.01

*Last update on November 12th.