NBA Elo Ratings and Simulation

Below is a table of our NBA Elo ratings for the 2018-2019 season along with win totals and playoff probabilities derived from 500 simulations of the 2018-2019 season. Check back over the course of the season as we will continue to update our elo ratings, along with win projections and playoff probabilities.

Elo ratings are a zero-sum rating system where teams are rewarded points after a win and subtracted points after a loss. The magnitude of this adjustment is larger for more unexpected outcomes. For instance, the Golden State Warriors would not receive much of a boost in their elo if they beat the Phoenix Suns because this is what we would expect to happen, but the Phoenix Suns would receive a larger increase in their elo if they managed to upset the Warriors. At Model284, our elos take into account each team’s prior elo rating, margin of victory, home court advantage, and the number of days off for each team prior to the game. Elo ratings do not immediately adjust for injuries, or roster changes from free agency and trades.

TeamEloWinsPlayoff Probability
Milwaukee Bucks175063.1>0.99
Golden State Warriors173059.6>0.99
Toronto Raptors170060.7>0.99
Oklahoma City Thunder166252.8>0.99
Philadelphia 76ers163652.5>0.99
Boston Celtics163351.6>0.99
Houston Rockets161148.30.98
Utah Jazz161049.30.99
Denver Nuggets160953.2>0.99
Portland Trail Blazers160049.10.98
Indiana Pacers159151.4>0.99
San Antonio Spurs157447.10.96
Minnesota Timberwolves152439.10.08
Orlando Magic151939.40.73
Los Angeles Clippers151144.60.77
Brooklyn Nets148440.10.84
Sacramento Kings148041.40.16
Los Angeles Lakers146738.90.05
Miami Heat145837.10.43
Detroit Pistons145437.60.45
New Orleans Pelicans145336.70.01
Charlotte Hornets144736.70.38
Dallas Mavericks144336.40.01
Washington Wizards144035.30.18
Memphis Grizzlies134830.6<0.01
Atlanta Hawks132026.6<0.01
Chicago Bulls127720.2<0.01
Cleveland Cavaliers124117.3<0.01
Phoenix Suns122616.9<0.01
New York Knicks121416.6<0.01

*Last update on February 19th.