NBA Elo Ratings and Simulation

Below is a table of our NBA Elo ratings for the 2018-2019 season along with win totals and playoff probabilities derived from 500 simulations of the 2018-2019 season. Check back over the course of the season as we will continue to update our elo ratings, along with win projections and playoff probabilities.

Elo ratings are a zero-sum rating system where teams are rewarded points after a win and subtracted points after a loss. The magnitude of this adjustment is larger for more unexpected outcomes. For instance, the Golden State Warriors would not receive much of a boost in their elo if they beat the Phoenix Suns because this is what we would expect to happen, but the Phoenix Suns would receive a larger increase in their elo if they managed to upset the Warriors. At Model284, our elos take into account each team’s prior elo rating, margin of victory, home court advantage, and the number of days off for each team prior to the game. Elo ratings do not immediately adjust for injuries, or roster changes from free agency and trades.

TeamEloWinsPlayoff Probability
Toronto Raptors168761.7>0.99
Milwaukee Bucks165156.3>0.99
Golden State Warriors163452.50.97
Denver Nuggets162552.80.95
Oklahoma City Thunder162352.10.94
Boston Celtics161052>0.99
Philadelphia 76ers160752.2>0.99
Houston Rockets160547.80.79
Los Angeles Clippers159252.20.94
Utah Jazz158847.80.84
Portland Trail Blazers158148.10.83
Indiana Pacers156147.60.98
Los Angeles Lakers155745.80.68
Minnesota Timberwolves151840.30.28
New Orleans Pelicans151741.30.32
Detroit Pistons150743.80.92
Charlotte Hornets150641.90.87
Memphis Grizzlies146839.90.23
San Antonio Spurs146136.30.08
Dallas Mavericks144735.50.08
Washington Wizards144235.90.5
Miami Heat142531.80.18
Sacramento Kings142035.20.06
Orlando Magic140835.10.38
Cleveland Cavaliers139827.50.04
New York Knicks138129.40.06
Brooklyn Nets137229.20.07
Chicago Bulls129921<0.01
Atlanta Hawks126719.9<0.01
Phoenix Suns125416.9<0.01

*Last update on November 18th.