Wait, why does PML favor the Astros?

After four games, this World Series is tied at two games apiece and shaping up for an exciting finish! According to our PML model, Houston has a 53% chance of winning it all. This might come as a surprise; the majority of other prediction models, like FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings, give Los Angeles a slight 56% edge—not surprising, given the Dodgers play two of the three games at home. In contrast, PML favors the away team in every game from here on out. Ultimately, the difference between the 44% chance FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros and our 53% is not huge. Whichever you prefer, the Series is a toss-up. But it’s useful to dig into why we’re a bit higher on the Astros, and in the process, get to know our PML model a little better.

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Man vs Model – Week 8

Okay, so not the best showing from me last week. In fact, that was easily my worst performance of the year. 0-5-1 with my best effort a push in the Dolphins-Jets game. I’d say the model got lucky but I’m a more gracious loser than that. Besides, I think the model needed a little confidence boost after I took its’ lunch money and shoved it into a locker during Week 7. So congrats to the model. Good week. Not gonna happen again. Let’s cook.
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Hammer The Over Vikes, Wolves, Wild

The guys do their best to balance their Minnesota fandom with the success of the Vikings and the early season struggles of the Timberwolves and Wild. The recap the first week of NBA action and touch in on the World Series. Segments include Over of the Week and Unwritten Rules.

Man vs Model – Week 7

What a week that was. Vikings win, Packers are dead, and Fred went 3-0 against the model. Put some serious distance between myself and the machine (read: 4 wins). Gonna be even sweeter when I stuff the model in a locker on back to back weeks. I’ve got the model on the ropes, now it’s time to start hammering away. As my father would always say to the 10-year-old hockey players he was coaching, “You’ve got your skate on their throat, now press.” Let’s cook.
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Team Defense Projections Week 7

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 7 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections Week 7