Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 7 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

The Model isn’t overly enthused with any D/ST matchups this week, but that doesn’t mean we’re off the ropes for starting one! Optimistic for the road teams, here are my D/ST picks for Week 7:

Must Starts:

 JAX @ IND  (Proj: 7.5 pts)

MIN vs BAL (Proj: 6.6 pts)

SEA @ NYG (Proj: 6.7 pts)

Streamers I Like:

NO @ GB (Proj: 5.0 pts) Just when you thought the Packers couldn’t get any more beat up than they already were, they lose (arguably) the NFL’s best Quarterback and hand the keys over to the 24 year old Brett Hundley. Sure, Hundley has shadowed Rodgers for the past three years and will be a bit more comfortable at Lambeau after getting first team reps in practice all week, but it’s hard not to like the idea of starting a defense against him in his first career start behind a depleted offensive line. It’s also hard to ignore the fact that New Orleans has scored double digit fantasy points in three straight weeks including a three touchdown performance for 32 big ones last week against Detroit. Sign me up for a little more of that.

CAR @ CHI (Proj: 10.1 pts): Whether or not Luke Kuechly plays this week is still TBD, but the continued trend of starting D/STs against rookie Quarterbacks should pay off again this week, especially if Mitch Trubisky throws the ball more than the sixteen times that he did last week against Baltimore. With Carolina’s offense clicking again, the Bears could fall into comeback mode before long and force Trubisky into making some bad decisions (not like he’s ever had any issues with that before). Could this be the Carolina of old?

TEN @ CLE (Proj: 2.1 pts): The Model ranks Tennessee as their 2nd worst option (in terms of projections) for D/STs this week, but I’m completely on board with starting them for a second week in a row against the 0-6 Cleveland Browns. To no one’s surprise, Cleveland has given up the most points per game to opposing defenses (12.8 Fantasy PPG), so despite Tennessee only scoring in double-digits once so far this season, I like their chances of changing that trend on the road this week.

Steer Clear:

DAL @ SF (Proj: 9.7 pts)

CIN @ PIT (Proj: 9.3 pts)

MIA vs NYJ (Proj: 6.4 pts)