Category Archives: Football

Team Defense Projections – Week 5

Fantasy Football, Football

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 5 →

Man vs Model: NFL Week 4

Football, Hammer the Over

Last week was a tough one for me. I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong 4 out of 6 times. I’d like to see the model take that kind of responsibility for its’ mistakes. I guess I’m just the bigger of the two men in this scenario. So after last week, the model and I are back in a deadlock and it’s time for me to dust myself off, look myself in the mirror, and get right back on the horse. So let’s get this thing started.

Continue reading Man vs Model: NFL Week 4 →

Team Defense Projections – Week 4

Fantasy Football, Football

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 4 →

Man vs Model – NFL Week 3

Football, Hammer the Over

Okay so, not a whole lot of movement last week with a total record of 3-3. Had some good wins (Baltimore-Cleveland under) and some bad losses. Hand in the air on that Bears game. That one’s on me, I’ll be better. I still think the Bears are going to have some value this year but you just can’t win ’em all. That being said I absolutely STUFFED those nerds and their model in a locker, beating that soul-less machine senseless 2-1. Absolutely drubbed the model by one win. You know the old adage: the worst lead in trying to beat a predictive model in sports gambling is a two-win lead, so I feel pretty comfortable with my current one win lead. Love where I’m at heading into week 3 but I certainly don’t want to get complacent. I’ve got a lot of people (maybe 2) counting on me to deliver so the last thing I need is that classic Week 3 hangover. Gotta keep bumping, and grinding, and delivering gut based picks. So that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 3 →