Team Defense Projections – Week 4

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.


What a wild, confusing, and electrifying week it was in the NFL, one that caused great pain for the betting folk like our beloved Fred West, but one that reminded us what Sundays are truly about after a lackluster first couple of weeks. As far as my D/ST picks went, TNF turned into a shootout, Case Keenum (thankfully) proved me very wrong, and Seattle showed signs of life by putting up 27 points against the Titans (albeit, taking an L). BUT, the noble Jags came through for me again, so don’t take it as a surprise that I’m picking them for a fourth straight week as a valuable streaming option. There aren’t a lot of great matchups to pick from this week, but outside of Seattle and Arizona at home against Indy and the Niners respectively, here are a few streaming options I like for Week 4:

 JAX @ NYJ (Proj: 13.1 pts): Choo Choo! The Jacksonville D/ST hype train keeps chugging along after another solid showing last week in London, and New York certainly isn’t won’t be my stop on this ride. If playing the Jets isn’t enough, Jacksonville is currently ranked as the #2 standard scoring D/ST unit (ESPN) and has a fantastic ROS schedule beyond playing at Pitt in Week 5. If Jacksonville is still floating the waivers in your league, grab them while you can and store them in a safe place until they prove us otherwise. They’ve officially been upgraded from Stream to Stash in my opinion, and the Model is starting to catch on as they’re this week’s top projected team.

PIT @ BAL (Proj: 6.5 pts): With no real numbers to back this up, Steelers vs Ravens division matchups always scream low-scoring affair for me.  We’ve yet to see Pittsburgh’s offense explode this season and Baltimore may still be hungover from that Jags powered beatdown in London last weekend. Although on the road, rolling with the Steelers against a Ravens team that posted 186 total yards of offense last week and ranks dead last in team passing yards through three weeks seems like a safe bet to make. Although no sure thing, streaming Pittsburgh on a thin week could reap reward.

CIN @ CLE (Proj: 4.5 pts): Oddly enough, the model is low on the Bengals this week, but looking past a Browns matchup is just simply not an option at this point. If you could somehow draft a matchup rather than a team so that your D/ST slot auto-filled whoever plays the Browns on that given week I’d gladly forego a mid-round pick for it. Despite being 0-3, I think the Bengals defense has been solid this year, and after giving Aaron Rodgers fits in the first half at Lambeau Field last week, I could see the Bengals splashing up double-digit points against a turnover-prone Deshone Kizer.

1Jaguars D/ST@ Jets13.1
2Cardinals D/STvs. 49ers11.4
3Falcons D/STvs. Bills10.4
4Chiefs D/STvs. Redskins9.4
5Broncos D/STvs. Raiders9.3
6Vikings D/STvs. Lions9.2
7Titans D/ST@ Texans8.2
8Seahawks D/STvs. Colts8.0
9Panthers D/ST@ Patriots7.6
10Giants D/ST@ Buccaneers7.5
11Cowboys D/STvs. Rams7.5
12Chargers D/STvs. Eagles7.4
13Raiders D/ST@ Broncos7.4
14Eagles D/ST@ Chargers7.3
15Colts D/ST@ Seahawks6.9
16Texans D/STvs. Titans6.8
17Ravens D/STvs. Steelers6.8
18Steelers D/ST@ Ravens6.5
19Saints D/ST@ Dolphins6.5
20Rams D/ST@ Cowboys5.1
21Redskins D/ST@ Chiefs5.1
22Patriots D/STvs. Panthers4.9
23Dolphins D/STvs. Saints4.8
24Buccaneers D/STvs. Giants4.6
25Bears D/ST@ Packers4.6
26Bengals D/ST@ Browns4.5
27Browns D/STvs. Bengals4.4
28Bills D/ST@ Falcons4.0
29Lions D/ST@ Vikings3.9
30Jets D/STvs. Jaguars3.9
31Packers D/STvs. Bears2.5
3249ers D/ST@ Cardinals1.4