Man vs Model – NFL Week 3

Okay so, not a whole lot of movement last week with a total record of 3-3. Had some good wins (Baltimore-Cleveland under) and some bad losses. Hand in the air on that Bears game. That one’s on me, I’ll be better. I still think the Bears are going to have some value this year but you just can’t win ’em all. That being said I absolutely STUFFED those nerds and their model in a locker, beating that soul-less machine senseless 2-1. Absolutely drubbed the model by one win. You know the old adage: the worst lead in trying to beat a predictive model in sports gambling is a two-win lead, so I feel pretty comfortable with my current one win lead. Love where I’m at heading into week 3 but I certainly don’t want to get complacent. I’ve got a lot of people (maybe 2) counting on me to deliver so the last thing I need is that classic Week 3 hangover. Gotta keep bumping, and grinding, and delivering gut based picks. So that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

Denver vs. Buffalo | Model Says: Buffalo +3

I know what you’re thinking. The most dangerous part of gambling is recency bias. We all just saw Denver man handle Dallas last Sunday in prime time. We saw their defense hold Zeke to essentially nothing and make Dak look downright pedestrian. They’re going on the road feeling high to a tough defense and a tough home crowd. Buffalo is getting the points. The public will be on Denver big time. You always want to be on the side of Vegas and Vegas is going to need Buffalo on Sunday…. You know what I say to all of that? The heart wants what the heart wants and my heart wants Denver. Take all of your analytics and general common sense and shove it for this game. Denver is going to mop the floor with the Bills (read: at least win by 4).
Final Prediction: Denver takes care of Buffalo in their first road game and covers -3

Baltimore vs. Jacksonville | Model Says: Over 39.5

So I’ve caught the model napping the last two weeks with these Baltimore unders and usually I’d say it’s probably time to jump ship but the model forgot one crucial detail: This game is played in London and London games are essentially just extensions of Thursday Night Football which means this is going to be an absolutely HORRIFIC game featuring almost no scoring. I’m convinced that when NFL teams leave the States the collective football IQ of each team drops about an average of 20 points per player. I like to think of football players as recently housebroken puppies: they are usually good and well behaved at home but once you get them into an environment that they are unfamiliar with you better be prepared to clean some piss out of the carpet. No chance Blake Bortles can read a defense when he’s 7 time zones from home. I’m going to keep riding this Baltimore under wave until it comes back to bite me.
Final Prediction: Under 39.5

Arizona vs. Dallas | Model Says: Arizona +3

Dallas is coming off a pretty embarrassing loss to Denver in front of a national audience. Zeke looked bad, Dak looked bad, and the defense gave up 42 points to a team lead by Trevor Siemian. To tell you how bad that last part is, it took me three tries at spelling Siemian before finally giving and googling it. I played the recency bias card with my Denver pick so I’m going to go against the grain with this one. I think Dallas is due for a bounce back blowout win on the road against an inferior opponent this weekend. Arizona still struggled in an overtime win against the dismal Colts and Carson Palmer looks like he’s about ready to start his inevitable career as a broadcaster. Zeke and Dak bring the heat this weekend and get their season back on track.
Final Prediction: Dallas -3

Additional Picks

Detroit +3 vs. Atlanta: Both of these teams are coming off of big wins in prime time games. To be honest I may be eating a little crow with this Lions team. Their offense has been explosive and their defense is much better than I thought it would be. I love a good home team that’s a slight underdog, so give me Detroit and the points all day. The model happens to agree with me but that’s really neither here nor there.

Green Bay vs. Cincinnati Over 44.5: So it’s well documented that the Bengals haven’t scored a touchdown yet this year. Now, I don’t think that that’s necessarily a fluke, I think the Bengals are bad, but I’m also pretty sure they will have to score at some point this season. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense haven’t exploded yet this year and I think it’s high time that happens. Add in the fact that the Packers in Lambeau is about as strong of a home field advantage as we’ve seen since the Starks in Winterfell, I’d say the Pack may just hit this over by themselves.

LA Chargers +3 vs Kansas City: I swear to you this will be my last time taking the Chargers if they fail to deliver once again. The good news is, when this game inevitably comes down to a last-second field goal, we’ll get the push even if Koo misses again.

That’s going to wrap it up for Week 3. I encourage everyone to follow me blindly into the darkness that is gambling on an NFL Sunday.

Fred: 3 Model: 2
Total Record: 4-4