Category Archives: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE)

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Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to each position relative to what their opponents had averaged going into each matchup. For example, if GB’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points heading into the matchup. We give a detailed explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values for each position group are shown below and were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings

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FOOTBALL IS FINALLY BACK! And since there is such a shortage of Fantasy Football content out there, we thought we needed to give the people some material to prepare for their drafts. The following rankings are loosely based on model predictions for each position, which use historical player/team data to predict fantasy points for the coming season (i.e., separate models for QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST). That said, there are plenty of factors that any model will have trouble capturing perfectly (injury status, team depth charts, suspensions, QB/Coach changes, etc.), and thus we have made some subjective adjustments to the rankings where necessary. For example, if a model weighs last year’s cumulative statistics too heavily, Odell Beckham Jr. is not going to come out very high since he only played 4 games. Our rankings can be found below, along with a short description of the model we used for each position. All rankings reflect PPR scoring.

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My Model Monday: Modeling NFL Injuries

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Injuries are inevitable in a game as physical as NFL football. Every season, numerous star players and important contributors are sidelined, leaving their fans and fantasy owners disappointed. Injuries appear to strike at random; an elite athlete can have his knee blown out in one cut like Dalvin Cook last season. However, is there a way to identify if certain players are more injury prone than others? I dug into the data to find out how well we can predict injuries among skill position players in the NFL.
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QB Fantasy Projections – Week 17

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Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 17 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team. Continue reading QB Fantasy Projections – Week 17 →

Team Defense Projections – Week 17

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Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 17 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 17 →

Team Defense Projections – Week 16

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Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 16 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 16 →