QB Fantasy Projections – Week 16

Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 16 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 16 Projections

Nick Foles lit up the Giants last week to the delight of all those Eagles fans who are still mourning the loss of Carson Wentz. With 237 yards and 4 TDs , Foles was able to finish as a top 5 fantasy QB in his first start of the season. The model was apparently not impressed by that flashy performance against the Giants, as it only projects him as QB19 this week. In the model’s defense, it is forced to include games that Foles played with the Rams team that was the polar opposite of this Eagles squad. It’s not hard to see another path to success this week against a weak Oakland pass defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA, with the Eagles playing at home as a 9-point favorite. Foles will feel risky until we have a larger sample to draw from, but I believe he can finish in the top 12 this week, and so should you.

It seems like I write about Case Keenum every week, but it’s almost impossible to not write about him when he continues to be one of the most consistent and trustworthy fantasy QBs out there. He has 17+ points in 7 straight games dating back to Week 8 against Cleveland. He is averaging a QB8 weekly finish and hasn’t finished outside the top 12 over that stretch. This week against the Rodgers-less Packers is a dream matchup, as they are allowing more points per game to QBs than the last 6 teams Keenum has faced (20.7 PPG in those games). There is no reason to think that this won’t be another day at the office for Minnesota’s savior, as he leads his team to a first round playoff bye. The model’s 17.7 point, QB8 projection looks spot on from where I’m sitting.

Most of the football world has all but crowned Tom Brady as this years MVP, which to me is just absurd. I mean no disrespect to what Tom has been able to do this year, and in almost any other season he would be a no brainer as MVP, but this year, Russell Wilson may be more valuable to his team this year than any player in NFL history. Calling his numbers simply impressive is almost insulting. He has scored 97% of his team’s TDs and 82% of their yards this season. For perspective, Brady is “only” responsible for 72% of the yards and 68% of the Pats’ TDs this year. Wilson hasn’t done this in a comfortable offense like Brady, either. Brady’s teammates have ran for 596 more yards, allowed 31 less QB hits, and dropped 7 less passes than Wilson’s. If Tom had gone down this year, the Patriots would likely still be in the playoff picture, but the Seahawks would be bottom feeders without Russ. Even if the ‘Hawks miss the playoffs, its indisputable that Wilson is the “most valuable” player in 2017. Okay, now that my fantasy-irrelevant rant is over, you need to know that Russell has only scored less than 19 points in 2 of his last 12 games. He has a mild matchup this week against the Cowboys, and the Model has Russell projected as QB9, with 17.4 points, which I think he exceeds. Wilson will carry you to a championship this week, just like he has carried the Seahawks all year.

RkPlayerTeamOppPredicted
Points
1Cam NewtonCARTB21.3
2Alex SmithKCMIA19.7
3Drew BreesNOATL19.5
4Ben RoethlisbergerPITHOU19.3
5Jared GoffLARTEN18.1
6Tom BradyNEBUF18.1
7Dak PrescottDALSEA17.9
8Case KeenumMINGB17.7
9Russell WilsonSEADAL17.4
10Blake BortlesJACSF17.2
11Matthew StaffordDETCIN16.7
12Joe FlaccoBALIND16.5
13Kirk CousinsWSHDEN16.1
14Matt RyanATLNO15.9
15Jimmy GaroppoloSFJAC15.7
16Marcus MariotaTENLAR15.6
17Mitch TrubiskyCHICLE15.4
18Philip RiversLACNYJ15.2
19Nick FolesPHIOAK15.1
20Tyrod TaylorBUFNE14.1
21Andy DaltonCINDET13.4
22Derek CarrOAKPHI13.4
23Jameis WinstonTBCAR13.2
24DeShone KizerCLECHI12.8
25Brett HundleyGBMIN12.7
26Drew StantonARINYG12.7
27Brock OsweilerDENWSH12.6
28Eli ManningNYGARI12.4
29T.J. YatesHOUPIT11.5
30Jacoby BrissettINDBAL11.2
31Bryce PettyNYJLAC11.1
32Jay CutlerMIAKC10.8