All posts by Eric King

NBA Elo Ratings and Simulation

Below is a table of our NBA Elo ratings for the 2018-2019 season along with win totals and playoff probabilities derived from 500 simulations of the 2018-2019 season. Check back over the course of the season as we will continue to update our elo ratings, along with win projections and playoff probabilities.

Elo ratings are a zero-sum rating system where teams are rewarded points after a win and subtracted points after a loss. The magnitude of this adjustment is larger for more unexpected outcomes. For instance, the Golden State Warriors would not receive much of a boost in their elo if they beat the Phoenix Suns because this is what we would expect to happen, but the Phoenix Suns would receive a larger increase in their elo if they managed to upset the Warriors. At Model284, our elos take into account each team’s prior elo rating, margin of victory, home court advantage, and the number of days off for each team prior to the game. Elo ratings do not immediately adjust for injuries, or roster changes from free agency and trades.

TeamEloWinsPlayoff Probability
Golden State Warriors173162.8>0.99
Houston Rockets166656.40.99
Utah Jazz162752.50.95
Toronto Raptors162655>0.99
New Orleans Pelicans161152.20.95
Denver Nuggets160550.50.9
Philadelphia 76ers159651.60.96
Boston Celtics158249.90.93
Portland Trail Blazers157848.40.83
Indiana Pacers156448.40.9
Oklahoma City Thunder156045.80.74
Cleveland Cavaliers155345.50.83
Minnesota Timberwolves154143.80.6
Milwaukee Bucks153345.70.81
San Antonio Spurs152142.10.51
Detroit Pistons1497420.66
Miami Heat149540.60.57
Charlotte Hornets149541.50.62
Washington Wizards148038.60.45
Los Angeles Clippers147338.20.29
Los Angeles Lakers146836.30.2
Brooklyn Nets141832.90.16
New York Knicks138530.10.07
Dallas Mavericks137227.50.02
Memphis Grizzlies135626.40.02
Sacramento Kings135225.90.01
Chicago Bulls134125.20.01
Phoenix Suns134125.5<0.01
Orlando Magic132624.70.01
Atlanta Hawks132123.80.01

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings

FOOTBALL IS FINALLY BACK! And since there is such a shortage of Fantasy Football content out there, we thought we needed to give the people some material to prepare for their drafts. The following rankings are loosely based on model predictions for each position, which use historical player/team data to predict fantasy points for the coming season (i.e., separate models for QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST). That said, there are plenty of factors that any model will have trouble capturing perfectly (injury status, team depth charts, suspensions, QB/Coach changes, etc.), and thus we have made some subjective adjustments to the rankings where necessary. For example, if a model weighs last year’s cumulative statistics too heavily, Odell Beckham Jr. is not going to come out very high since he only played 4 games. Our rankings can be found below, along with a short description of the model we used for each position. All rankings reflect PPR scoring.

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My Model Monday: Modeling NFL Injuries

Injuries are inevitable in a game as physical as NFL football. Every season, numerous star players and important contributors are sidelined, leaving their fans and fantasy owners disappointed. Injuries appear to strike at random; an elite athlete can have his knee blown out in one cut like Dalvin Cook last season. However, is there a way to identify if certain players are more injury prone than others? I dug into the data to find out how well we can predict injuries among skill position players in the NFL.
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Prospect Profiles: Kevin Huerter

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Kevin Huerter.

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Prospect Profiles: Robert Williams

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Robert Williams

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Prospect Profile: Kevin Knox

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Kevin Knox.

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Prospect Profiles: Miles Bridges

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Miles Bridges.

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Prospect Profile: Collin Sexton

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Collin Sexton.

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Prospect Profile: Marvin Bagley III

Leading up to the 2018 NBA Draft on June 21st, we will be using our NBA Draft Models (PNSP Model, Role Probability Model, and Similarity Scores) to investigate this year’s top prospects. These Prospect Profiles look at which stats affect NBA projections, present unique data points from a player’s stats, and give relevant comparisons to current NBA players. You can find all of our Prospect Profiles here or through the header menu above (NBA –> NBA Draft –> Prospect Profiles). In today’s article, we look at Marvin Bagley III.
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2018 NBA Finals

Through three rounds, we have gone 10/14 in series predictions. Two of these incorrect picks have come from series involving the Cavaliers. As we have seen in prior years, our models have a hard time assessing the Cleveland Cavaliers because they consistently under perform in the regular season. In the Championship round, our models are siding with the Golden State Warriors. Four of our five models picked the Warriors to win, and the average probability across the five predictions is 0.69. We will continue to update the table below following each game in the series!

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