Team Defense Projections – Week 16

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 16 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

Welcome to the season’s final edition of our Weekly D/ST article. It’s Week 16 AKA Championship Week where for many of us money, bragging rights, and more importantly pride are all on the line. Fortunately, there are a lot of strong options to go with this week, despite the Model’s tempered projections that land only the Bears in double digit territory. Fortunately for you, the Bears land on the ‘Streamers I Like’ list being owned in only 57% of ESPN leagues. As you will see, I threw the Jaguars into the ‘Must Start’ list just to reassure any of you who might be hesitant to start them against the suddenly hot 49ers led by sir Jimmy G. Don’t overthink this one and remember to trust in the guys that got you to this point. Without further ado, I wish you good luck and hope you find this useful in setting your Championship lineup.

Must Starts:

JAX @ SF (Proj: 6.5 pts)

BAL vs IND (Proj: 8.4 pts)

LAC @ NYJ (Proj: 6.6 pts)

MIN @ GB (Proj: 6.9 pts)

PIT @ HOU (Proj: 9.2 pts)

Streamers I Like:

CHI vs CLE (Proj: 10.2 pts): It took 16 weeks, but the Bears have finally made their debut on my Streamers list, despite ranking as the #7 defense in Fantasy this season. Perhaps I missed the boat on that one… Either way, a home game against the Browns warrants a start for any football team, regardless of level. In truth, this game may be the worst matchup we’ve had all season, but that should bode well for a team rolling with a streamer in their Championship game.

KC vs MIA (Proj: 5.2 pts) As a perennially strong defense, the Chiefs have been a very confusing team this season both in fantasy and real-life football terms. Nonetheless, it seems like the Chiefs have swung back to the norm, posting 25 total fantasy points in their past two games while holding both opponents under 15 points in both contests. With an AFC West Championship in sight, I expect more of the same from the Chiefs this weekend against the unpredictable Jay Cutler, even if Andy Reid misses out on the game when he prioritizes his family’s Christmas Eve feast.

DET @ CIN (Proj: 6.4 pts) No other team in football has rolled over quite as clearly as the Bengals have. Cincy showed no signs of life in Minneapolis last weekend failing to surpass 200 yards of total offense and being limited to a single score for a second straight game. With playoff hopes still alive, I like the Lions this week who have posted double digit fantasy scoring now in consecutive weeks, getting back on track with their hot start.

Not Sold:

CAR @ HOU (Proj: 8.0 pts)

NE vs BUF (Proj: 6.2 pts)

SEA @ DAL (Proj: 2.0 pts)


1Bears D/STvs. Browns10.2
2Steelers@ Texans9.2
3Giants D/ST@ Cardinals9.0
4Ravens D/STvs. Colts8.4
5Panthers D/STvs. Buccaneers8.0
6Cowboys D/STvs. Seahawks7.9
7Redskins D/STvs. Broncos7.8
8Raiders D/ST@ Eagles7.5
9Buccaneers D/ST@ Panthers7.4
10Cardinals D/STvs. Giants7.3
11Jets D/STvs. Chargers7.1
12Vikings D/ST@ Packers6.9
13Chargers D/ST@ Jets6.6
14Jaguars D/ST@ 49ers6.5
15Lions D/ST@ Bengals6.4
16Patriots D/STvs. Bills6.2
1749ers D/STvs. Jaguars6.2
18Bengas D/STvs. Lions5.3
19Chiefs D/STvs. Dolphins5.2
20Eagles D/STvs. Raiders5.2
21Colts D/ST@ Ravens4.7
22Rams D/ST@ Titans4.4
23Packers D/STvs. Vikings4.4
24Titans D/STvs. Rams4.3
25Bills D/ST@ Patriots4.2
26Broncos D/ST@ Redskins4.2
27Saints D/STvs. Falcons4.2
28Falcons D/ST@ Saints3.9
29Texans D/STvs. Steelers3.9
30Browns D/ST@ Bears3.2
31Seahawks D/ST@ Cowboys2.0
32Dolphins D/ST@ Chiefs1.0