Below is a table of our 2017-18 NHL Playoff Simulation and Elo Ratings. Rankings are based on Probability of Winning the Conference Championships. Tune in to this post for updates to these figures throughout the rest of the 2017-18 NHL Playoffs.
Continue reading 2017-18 NHL Playoff Probabilities and Elo Ratings
Tensions between players and NBA officials have been on the rise over the past couple years. In the 2016 – 2017 season, referees called 917 technical fouls, and in the 2017 – 2018 season that number increased to 946. Players and coaches are antagonizing referees more and more, forcing referees into handing out more technical fouls. On most occasions, a technical fouls is due to a player or coach letting their emotions get the best of them. Other times, the technical may have been drawn intentionally to send a message. When a technical foul is called, the opposing team is awarded a free throw, but the overall effect on the game doesn’t always end there. In this article, I investigate how technical fouls effect the game from the perspective of the teams involved and the officials. All of the data in this analysis came from basketball-reference.com. Continue reading My Model Monday: Deep Dive Into Technical Fouls
The probabilities for our second round predictions were generated from a combination of models that are built on team and player level data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued. For more information on our modeling techniques check out our methodologies page.
With the NBA and NHL playoffs in full swing, it gives us a good chance to look at which teams over/underachieved during the regular season using Pythagorean Win Expectation, and, in turn, what teams could exceed expectations in the playoffs. Continue reading My Model Monday: NBA & NHL Pythagorean Wins
All-encompassing stats are great for many things. WAR has become the standard for comparing baseball players because, more than any other stat, it encapsulates all of a player’s contributions in one number. On the offensive side, stats like OPS and wOBA provide a single stat that basically amount to offensive production per plate appearance. Stats like these are useful both in that they assign values to the different ways in which players provide value, and because universal measures allow easy comparisons between players. Want to know whether Giancarlo Stanton or Joey Votto was a more productive hitter last year? No number will give a perfect answer, but wOBA will get you close.
Continue reading My Model Monday: Visualizing Hitter Performance
Below is our projected bracket for the 2018 NBA playoffs. These probabilities were generated from a combination of models that are built on data from the regular season. Keep in mind that teams who had significant injuries in the regular season may be undervalued by the models. Likewise, teams who have players that played through the regular season but are injured for the playoffs are likely overvalued (e.g., the Boston Celtics). Continue reading 2018 NBA Playoff Bracket
Below is our Model 284 consensus bracket for the 2017-18 NHL Playoffs as well as some Model Factoids. As you will see from our first round Predictions and playoff simulation results, we do not necessarily pick the model’s predicted winner for every single game, but use all available information (e.g. injuries, areas model might be lacking, etc.) to make the best prediction on each series.
This year’s class of players entering the NFL draft lacks real star power at the Wide Receiver position. At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a cant-miss player like a Julio Jones or Calvin Jonson. However, it’s important to remember that the most dominant receiver in the game today, Antonio Brown, was considered a below average prospect prior to the 2010 draft, and wasn’t picked until the 6th round, after 21 (!) wide receivers already went off the board. It is certainly possible there is another hidden gem hiding in this years crop of Wide Receivers.
The guys wrap up March madness by asking the question nobody else is: what is Spike Lee famous for? Tom and Evan try to convince themselves that the Wolves could win a playoff series while Fred has given up all hope for the Wild after the Suter injury. Evan explains why he doesn’t like talking sports at work and everyone is relieved that they didn’t have social media when they were in 7th grade.
Here is a quick recap of how our models performed in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. At the bottom of the article, you can find links to all of our content and predictions from this year. Continue reading March Madness 2018 Recap