Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 4
QB Fantasy Projections – Week 4
Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 4 of 2017.
Hammer The Over NFL Week 4 with Sam Walczak
The guys breakdown week 3 in the NFL, the Knicks trade that sent Melo to the Thunder, and the FBI’s sting on 5 college basketball programs. Tom Milne joins the pod to talk Vikings and Model CEO Sam Walczak brings the model aboard to preview the week 4 matchups.
NFL Predictions – Week 4
The article below gives our models’ predictions for Week 4 matchups of the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Week 4
Man vs Model – NFL Week 3
Okay so, not a whole lot of movement last week with a total record of 3-3. Had some good wins (Baltimore-Cleveland under) and some bad losses. Hand in the air on that Bears game. That one’s on me, I’ll be better. I still think the Bears are going to have some value this year but you just can’t win ’em all. That being said I absolutely STUFFED those nerds and their model in a locker, beating that soul-less machine senseless 2-1. Absolutely drubbed the model by one win. You know the old adage: the worst lead in trying to beat a predictive model in sports gambling is a two-win lead, so I feel pretty comfortable with my current one win lead. Love where I’m at heading into week 3 but I certainly don’t want to get complacent. I’ve got a lot of people (maybe 2) counting on me to deliver so the last thing I need is that classic Week 3 hangover. Gotta keep bumping, and grinding, and delivering gut based picks. So that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 3
Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 3
Welcome once again to Week 3 of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you. Continue reading Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 3
Team Defense Projections – Week 3
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 3 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 3
QB Fantasy Projections – Week 3
Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 3 of 2017. Note that QBs who have yet to play 7 games, or are not expected to play, are not included in our predictions.
Continue reading QB Fantasy Projections – Week 3
Hammer The Over: MLB Expert Jack Werner
This week the guys recap week 2 of the NFL games, give their bold predictions after overreaction week, and discuss Kevin Durant’s twitter trolling tendencies. Jack Werner, Model 284 contributor, comes on the pod to talk MLB and Twins. Evan and Fred give their overs of the week and preview this week’s slate of games.
Fantasy Points Above Expectation – Week 3
Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, if New Orleans’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5.0 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values against each position group for Week 3 of 2017 are shown below. These values were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
Continue reading Fantasy Points Above Expectation – Week 3