Team Defense Projections – Week 3

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 3 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.


Week 3 brings us some pretty likeable matchups in the D/ST world. I think Baltimore (vs JAX) and Denver (@ BUF) are no-brainers this week with Denver seeming matchup proof again after a dominant showing against Dallas last week. Pittsburgh (@ CHI) should also get strong consideration against a Bears team that returned to the sewers last week despite their teaser showing in Week 1 against the defending NFC Champs. I’m not as high on the Miami at Jets matchup as others might be, but the Jets are the Jets and there’s always going to be upside in that case. Anyway, here are a few other options beyond the obvious that I like this week:

LAR @ SF (Proj: 6.8 pts): Thursday Night Mush. The 49ers have scored 12 combined points on four Robbie Gould Field Goals this season. They are flat out bad. On the other hand, the Rams are 1-1 and seem like they could hang around in the NFC’s weakest division. But come on, Rams at Niners on a Thursday night? I don’t care what year it is or how good either team is, that’s got ugly written all over it.  While I’d bet that touchdown drought ends for San Fran this week, I think they’ll stick to course and struggle to move the ball against LA.

JAX @ BAL (Proj: 9.1 pts): Yep. Here we go again. After a hot 29 points in Week 1, my seemingly favorite D/ST streamer dropped a negative spot on us (-1) in Week 2 by getting sliced and diced by the Titans … Well, you win some, you lose some. That’s still an average of 14 points, which I’ll take any day – it’s all about perspective here. Either way, I still like this matchup (both sides of it) against a Baltimore team that has been fortunate to play two bottom of the barrel teams to kickoff their season. If you’re streaming this week give Jacksonville one more chance, even the Model would tell you to do so projecting them as their sixth best D/ST projected for 9.1 points.

TEN vs SEA (Proj: 10.0 pts): This may be the season that the Seattle O-Line is finally tried and found guilty for the murder of their star Quarterback Russell Wilson. Through their first two games Seattle’s offense has looked miserable, and although we’ve seen these slow starts before (they started 1-1 last year scoring 15 points combined), I think the trend continues this week on the road at Tennessee, who forced three turnovers last week (albeit, against the Jags). If they can get to Russell Wilson and hold off Seattle’s non-existent run game (RIP Eddie), Tennessee D/ST can score you some points in Week 3.

TB @ MIN (Proj: 6.9 pts): As a Vikes fan, I really didn’t want to have to do this… but if Sam Bradford sits again this week, Tampa Bay is a definite start worthy defense against Case Keenum and Co. With fresh legs coming off their bye, the Bucs’ defense forced four Chicago turnovers last week (including a pick-six) which was good for 18 standard fantasy points. Owned in only 11% of leagues (ESPN), definitely consider them as a quality streaming option against a mediocre Minnesota offense if Bradford does in fact sit again. Ugh.


1Seahawks D/ST@ Titans10.2
2Titans D/STvs. Seahawks10.0
3Panthers D/STvs. Saints9.6
449ers D/STvs. Rams9.5
5Steelers D/ST@ Bears9.4
6Jaguars D/STvs. Ravens9.1
7Colts D/STvs. Browns9.0
8Broncos D/ST@ Bills8.6
9Cardinals D/ST@ Cowboys7.9
10Ravens D/ST@ Jaguars7.8
11Texans D/ST@ Patriots7.3
12Bills D/STvs. Broncos7.3
13Patriots D/STvs. Texans7.1
14Redskins D/STvs. Raiders7.1
15Giants D/ST@ Eagles7.0
16Buccaneers D/ST@ Vikings6.9
17Rams D/ST@ 49ers6.8
18Eagles D/STvs. Giants6.7
19Jets D/STvs. Dolphins6.3
20Packers D/STvs. Bengals6.2
21Cowboys D/ST@ Cardinals6.1
22Vikings D/STvs. Buccaneers5.7
23Chargers D/STvs. Chiefs5.7
24Bears D/STvs. Steelers4.7
25Chiefs D/ST@ Chargers4.3
26Browns D/ST@ Colts4.2
27Lions D/STvs. Falcons2.8
28Raiders D/ST@ Redskins2.7
29Dolphins D/ST@ Jets2.6
30Falcons D/ST@ Lions2.3
31Bengals D/ST@ Packers2.1
32Saints D/ST@ Panthers1.6