Man vs Model – Week 10

Football

We had an interesting week last week with two pushes in the additional picks section to put me at 2-1 against the model and 2-2-2 overall for the week. The Redskins finally pulled through for me so I’ll probably bet on them about 9 more times this season. I feel like the strategy of betting on overs for games that on the surface seem like they have zero business going over has been working out for me, but I have no statistical data to back that up and I’m not going to go out of my way to find it. I’m just gonna keep trusting the gut and shooting from the hip.
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Team Defense Projections – Week 10

Fantasy Football, Football

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 10 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 10 →

Man vs Model – Week 9

Football

Well here we are again. After an 0-3 week two weeks ago, I bounced back against the model and took week 8 2-1. Unfortunately I also lost all of my additional picks to put me at 2-4 on the week. Not the best showing from me the last couple of weeks and I’m getting desperate as we head towards the second half of the season. As I’m writing this reports are coming out that Deshaun Watson has torn his ACL and is out for the season. Now the model has already given it’s picks and a lesser man might jump on this opportunity to bet against the Texans in relation to the lines the model was working with before the injury, but I’m not going to do that. Too much integrity. As a sign of good faith and respect for my competition I will NOT be betting on the Houston game this week.
Continue reading Man vs Model – Week 9 →

Team Defense Projections – Week 9

Football

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 9 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 9 →