Well here we are again. After an 0-3 week two weeks ago, I bounced back against the model and took week 8 2-1. Unfortunately I also lost all of my additional picks to put me at 2-4 on the week. Not the best showing from me the last couple of weeks and I’m getting desperate as we head towards the second half of the season. As I’m writing this reports are coming out that Deshaun Watson has torn his ACL and is out for the season. Now the model has already given it’s picks and a lesser man might jump on this opportunity to bet against the Texans in relation to the lines the model was working with before the injury, but I’m not going to do that. Too much integrity. As a sign of good faith and respect for my competition I will NOT be betting on the Houston game this week.
Dallas vs Kansas City | Model Says: Cowboys pk
I have bet against the Cowboys probably 7 times this year and I’ve lost probably 6 of those bets. Eventually I’m going to hit on this. Zeke is suspended (or not suspended) or something and the Chiefs just got done steam rolling the Broncos on Monday Night Football. Alex Smith still has yet to turn the ball over and I’m loving that little shovel pass to Kelce. Chiefs win this one in Dallas.
Final Prediction: Chiefs pk
New York Jets vs Buffalo | Model Says: Under 43
So this post may not be posted before this game but I think I proved my integrity by not betting on the Texans game so I’m going to ask you all to trust me that I’m typing this before Kickoff. I absolutely love this over for no reason other than this game is what Thursday Night color rush is all about. When you think color rush you think Titans/Jaguars and Jets/Bills. No reason to think this game gets over 20 points let alone 43 so let’s hammer this over and make some free money.
Final Prediction: Over 43
Washington vs Seattle | Model Says: Seahawks -7.5
So here I find myself somehow trying to talk myself into betting on the Redskins for what seems like the 40th week in a row. It has proved to be a fruitless strategy but man that half point on the touchdown sure does look good. The Seahawks haven’t really blown anyone out this year either. Washington is desperate for a win. That’s it, we’re doing this. Let’s go skins.
Final Prediction: Redskins +7.5
Additional Picks
New York Giants +3.5 vs. LA Rams: I’m gonna try something new here and trust the model. For whatever reason the model absolutely loves the Giants here, giving them an 80% chance to cover the spread. I really don’t like the Giants much since they really don’t have much to play for, don’t have any offensive weapons, and the Rams are competing for a playoff spot, but hell let’s give the machine a shot.
Tennessee vs Baltimore Under 43: This one seems like a no brainer to me and instead of overthinking it and going the other way I’m just gonna trust the gut. Flacco is dead and even if he plays he’s been water trash this year. The Titans have been a disappointment for a lot of people that picked them to come out of the South. This game is low scoring and tough to watch.
Miami +3 vs. Oakland: Big shake-up in Miami as the Dolphins traded Ajayi at the deadline. Apparently this was a “if you don’t produce, you don’t play for us” type of move from the front office and Adam Gase to try to send a message to a team that’s been under performing. I’m not sure that these types of messages always work out but we’re gonna give it a shot this week. Miami comes out strong after the trade and Oakland continues their disappointing season.
That’s it for this week.
Fred: 11 Model: 9
Total Record: 15-22-1