Friday Fantasy Preview – Week 10

Here we go again, with the Week 10 edition of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.

Before I get into this weeks article, I’d like to take a moment to acknowledge the passing of retired pitcher Roy Halladay on Tuesday. Halladay is one of the great players, and people in the history of not only baseball but professional sports as a whole. He inspired a generation of kids to be better athletes and human beings. He was truly one of the greats.

Player Notes For Week 10

Todd Gurley: Okay here you have it, I’m ready to admit that I was wrong in Week 5 when I implied that he wasn’t an elite fantasy back. If you have been following this article weekly, then you know that I have followed him closely since then, and set a list of accomplishments I needed to see before I was ready to put him in that category. To my surprise, Gurley has managed to do everything I’ve asked and more. His playoff schedule still is a cause for a little concern, but it’s starting to look a little lighter as we begin finding out what defenses really are throughout the year. I hope he can stay on the roll, and be the Adrian Peterson 2.0 we all hoped he could be after his rookie year.

Dolphins RBs: Only one week removed from the Jay Ajayi trade, we don’t know much about how this backfield split will play out. Damien Williams was able to find the end zone last week, but he was out-snapped and clearly outplayed by Kenyan Drake. Drake is the favorite to take the lead role, but, for now, neither is a player I would be comfortable starting.

Will Fuller/DeAndre Hopkins: Well, now that the fun ride is over and the Texans are unwatchable again, we can see how the stock of their top two receivers is affected. Will Fuller was bound to come back to earth even with Deshaun Watson, so it should be no surprise that he came crashing down hard without him. Fuller is a boom-bust receiver that is one of the least trustworthy players out there right now given his QB. Hopkins, on the other hand, seems to have shaken off his struggles from last year and is showing everyone why he was considered one of the best receivers in the league a couple of years ago. His stock takes a hit after the injury, but his target volume should keep him in lineups every week.

Adam Thielen: This season, Thielen has more catches AND receiving yards than A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Brandin Cooks. He is 17th in WR fantasy points per game despite only scoring one TD. Oh yeah, and he is also tied for 4th in the league in targets.

Week 10 Studs:

Ben Roethlisberger: I can already hear you laughing at me and muttering something about Ben’s historic struggles on the road, but hear me out. Big Ben has been one of the best QBs in the league practically his entire career, and while it has been pretty ugly this year, something has to give when you have the best RB and WR in the NFL at your disposal. Yes, Ben is playing on the road, but he’s playing the Colts, who we all know aren’t exactly a team that keeps QBs up at night. That is now truer than ever as they lost one of their best pass rushers, Henry Anderson, with a throat injury suffered early in last week’s game. Ben will break his mold this week.

Jerick McKinnon: Since“Jet” has taken over for Dalvin Cook in Week 4, he is averaging just under 20 touches per game and has 4 TDs in 4 games. McKinnon is a huge part of the offense, and has had plays designed for him in the pass game. This will keep his floor high no matter how the game flows this Sunday against Washington.

Orleans Darkwa: Okay, I need to preface all of this by saying that I would normally never trust Darkwa. However, he happens to be playing the 49ers, who have given up the most rushing yards, receiving yards, and FPPG this year to running backs this year. They are one of those teams where you have to blindly start whoever they are playing against.

Week 10 Duds:

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick is a popular fill-in/sleeper pick this week in fantasy, but I’m not buying it. People seem to forget that Fitz threw 17 interceptions to his 12 TDs in his 14 games in 2016 on his way to a 69.9 QB rating. So why are we so sure that he is going to succeed in his first start for the Buccaneers with Mike Evans suspended? I can admit that the Jets are a good matchup, but the Bucs have been heavily reliant on their deep passing game, which is a problem when you have a QB who has a career 1.26 TD/INT ratio. I just don’t see what everyone else is seeing. Stay away from Fitz.

All the Redskins: If you own a Redskins WR, you already know that you can trust them about as far as you can throw them. As for the rest of the offense, Kirk Cousins and Chris Thompson have both been pretty good this year, and are usually guys you’re considering every week. The difference this week is the Minnesota Vikings Defense. You may be surprised to know that the Vikings have allowed less PPR points per game than the Broncos to every position except WR this year. With Cousins coming off two bad fantasy outings against Dallas and Seattle, you have to wonder how he could find a way to overcome this defense. As for Thompson, he is coming off an 8-touch game and has been pretty reliant on big plays this year. The Vikings have given up the 2nd least 20-yard and 40-yard plays this year. Outside of the tight end position, I just can’t see much of a reason to start anyone on the ‘Skins this week.

Great WRs with Backup QBs:

Jordy Nelson: If you drafted Jordy, you probably have to start Nelson every single week, but you aren’t happy about it right now. It’s been tough for the whole Packers team since Rodgers went down against Minnesota. It’s impossible to trust Jordy Nelson to be Jordy Nelson as long as Hundley is playing QB. The Bears pass defense is better than they get credit for and will further lower Nelson’s ceiling this week.

T.Y. Hilton has been up extremely matchup-dependant without Andrew Luck this year. He has yet to surpass 8 targets, 4 catches, 57 receiving yards or scored a TD against anyone but Houston, San Francisco, or Cleveland. In fact, over 70% of his receiving yards and 55% of his receptions have come in those three games. Those teams are near the bottom of the league in passing defense. This week, Hilton and the Colts will be playing Pittsburgh, who is second best in passing yards and TDs allowed this year. Stay away from T.Y. in any matchup that isn’t a slam dunk until he shows up to play a real game.

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