Last week was a tough one for me. I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong 4 out of 6 times. I’d like to see the model take that kind of responsibility for its’ mistakes. I guess I’m just the bigger of the two men in this scenario. So after last week, the model and I are back in a deadlock and it’s time for me to dust myself off, look myself in the mirror, and get right back on the horse. So let’s get this thing started.

Continue reading Man vs Model: NFL Week 4 →

Okay so, not a whole lot of movement last week with a total record of 3-3. Had some good wins (Baltimore-Cleveland under) and some bad losses. Hand in the air on that Bears game. That one’s on me, I’ll be better. I still think the Bears are going to have some value this year but you just can’t win ’em all. That being said I absolutely STUFFED those nerds and their model in a locker, beating that soul-less machine senseless 2-1. Absolutely drubbed the model by one win. You know the old adage: the worst lead in trying to beat a predictive model in sports gambling is a two-win lead, so I feel pretty comfortable with my current one win lead. Love where I’m at heading into week 3 but I certainly don’t want to get complacent. I’ve got a lot of people (maybe 2) counting on me to deliver so the last thing I need is that classic Week 3 hangover. Gotta keep bumping, and grinding, and delivering gut based picks. So that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 3 →

Welcome back to another installment of Man vs Model. Last week I was 1-1 against the model with the under hitting easily in the Baltimore-Cincinnati game and the 49ers letting me down in a big way in a blowout loss to Carolina. All things considered, I’d say that’s not a bad start to my lifelong battle against the machine, but I’m not a huge fan of the idea of tying in general. Sports, and really anything in life, shouldn’t end in ties. Just defeats the purpose competing in the first place. We play until there’s a winner, or until they drag us off the field kicking, screaming, and covered in blood. So with that being said, we are gonna change things up a little bit in the format of this blog. First, I’ll be adding another game to my picks against the model. This way there is at least a clear cut winner between me and that cold, heartless machine. Additionally, I will be adding a couple of more picks that I like that aren’t necessarily in contrast to the model. Our numbers are right more than 50% of the time, so it would be foolish of me not to use the model with some of my picks. So without further ado, let’s get into it. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 2 →

I’d like to preface this blog by making it clear that I am a firm backer of the model and will be making most of my gambling decisions with it in mind. I’ll be the first to admit that my best gambling run (March Madness weeks one and two of this year) was thanks in large part to this website’s model and its proficiency in predicting overs. Maybe even more importantly, the likelihood that I could one day quit my day job and work full time at Model 284 rests almost entirely in the model’s ability to predict the outcomes of football games. All of that being said, the model can’t get it all right. There are certain things that the model simply cannot account for. Do you think a model could have predicted the New Orleans Saints response to Hurricane Katrina upon their return to the Superdome in September of 2006? Could any model in the world predict when Eli Manning decides to blackout, channel his inner Joe Montana, and carry the Giants to a Superbowl? And don’t you dare tell me a model has the awareness to understand just what a color rush means to a seemingly meaningless Jaguars-Titans Thursday Night Football game. Point being, there are a lot of factors that the model can’t account for. This is where I come in. If the model is the Great Wall of China, think of me as the guy who is in charge of plugging all of the small cracks and holes that pop up along the wall. In a country that prides itself on its’ use of checks and balances, I’m here to remind the nerds of this company that sometimes the numbers do lie.
Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 1 →