Hello and welcome to the very first installment of Freelance Friday here at Model 284. In an effort to try to encourage the production of more creative content for our readers to enjoy, some of us will be embarrassing ourselves via the written word once a week through this platform. The powers that be at Model 284 have given us the green light to write about pretty much anything we want in these Friday installations and I could think of no better way to kick this off than to try my best to explain what it’s like to be a Minnesota sports fan. With the Vikings entering the playoffs after an unforgettable 13-3 regular season as the Vegas favorite to represent the NFC in what would be a home Super Bowl, I felt there was no time like the present to discuss some of the things that make being a Minnesota sports fan so unique, terrible, confusing, infuriating, soul crushing, etc. Continue reading Freelance Friday: Being a Minnesota Sports Fan
NFL Predictions – Divisional Round
The article below gives our models’ predictions for divisional playoff matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Divisional Round
Hammer The Over Minnesota Vikings
Tom and Fred embark on their first episode without Evan just in time to whip themselves into a frenzy before the Vikes first playoff game. They break down the position by position matchups against the Saints and their overall state of mind heading into the playoffs. They also touch on the Wolves recent hot streak and Fred tries to give the full President Trump life timeline in his 5 minutes of research.
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My Model Monday: Crash the Glass or Get Back?
In the seconds immediately following a shot attempt, the players on offense can take one of two actions: (1) get back on defense to prevent a potential transition bucket from your opponents, or (2) crash the paint to get in position for an offensive rebound. In the article below, I explore the positive and negative impacts of each option. Continue reading My Model Monday: Crash the Glass or Get Back?
Hammer The Over NFL Preview with Eric Eager
The guys welcome Dr Eric Eager of PFF back to the podcast to discuss the wild card round of the playoffs and PFF’s playoff predictions. Tom gives his two minutes of Vikings talk after clinching a first round bye in the playoff. Segments include 5 minutes of research and Unwritten Rules of New Years resolutions.
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NFL Predictions – Wild Card Round
The article below gives our models’ predictions for playoff matchups for the 2017 NFL season.
Continue reading NFL Predictions – Wild Card Round
NBA Lineup Evaluator: Spacing (2016-2017)
Below is a table of our NBA Lineup spacing metric applied to all NBA Lineups that played more than 50 minutes together in the 2016-2017 season. Our NBA Lineup Spacing metric seeks to quantify a lineup’s ability to generate and score from efficient shots (i.e. at the rim and from the three point line). For complete methodology behind the calculation, see here.
NBA Lineup Evaluator: Spacing
Preface
First and foremost, I regret to inform you that this analysis is NOT done with player tracking data.
Secondly, I want to say this lineup metric is called spacing, but it is not really a measure of spacing; it is more a measure of how capable a lineup is of producing efficient shots. So, why call it spacing? Firstly, because spacing is catchy and trendy, but also because we believe that when the average fan thinks or hears the word spacing, they are generally thinking about maximizing the optimal shots in basketball: three-pointers and shots at the rim.
QB Fantasy Projections – Week 17
Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 17 of 2017.
QB Model Background
Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.
To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team. Continue reading QB Fantasy Projections – Week 17
Team Defense Projections – Week 17
Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 17 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 17