Category Archives: Football

Man vs Model – Week 12

It is Thanksgiving Week and if you think there is a better week in the calendar year you are just flat out wrong. Thanksgiving is the best holiday there is and I’ll hear nothing else about it. All of the good parts of Christmas (food, family, football) without any of the stress. Just a really, really nice day. Nothing better than that. We also get to watch the 8-2 Vikings play on Thanksgiving this year which is just the cherry on top to an already perfect day.
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Team Defense Projections – Week 12

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 12 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 12

Man vs Model – Week 11

Another tough week for the man fighting the good fight against the machine. 1-2 against the model and 2-4 overall. Still have a two-game lead over the model going into Week 11 but if I’m being honest, I’m running out of steam. Feels like I’m just going through the motions out here. Each week I open up the same goddamn sports book, look at the same goddamn teams, and right pretty much the same goddamn bullshit. I’ve officially reached my mid-season blues. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a bye week for a blogger/podcaster/division 3 play-by-play broadcaster so I have no choice but to plunge right back into the shit and try to work my way through this funk.
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Team Defense Projections – Week 11

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 11 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 11

Man vs Model – Week 10

We had an interesting week last week with two pushes in the additional picks section to put me at 2-1 against the model and 2-2-2 overall for the week. The Redskins finally pulled through for me so I’ll probably bet on them about 9 more times this season. I feel like the strategy of betting on overs for games that on the surface seem like they have zero business going over has been working out for me, but I have no statistical data to back that up and I’m not going to go out of my way to find it. I’m just gonna keep trusting the gut and shooting from the hip.
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