Here we go again, with the Week 11 edition of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.
Week 11 Studs:
Tyreek Hill: TyFreak is as dynamic as any player in the league right now. He has played well on the road all year (3.2 PPG Home / 14.8 PPG Away) and this week he finds himself on the road matching up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL – NYG has given up the 4th most Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) to WRs over their last 7 games. If he doesn’t put up numbers this week, it will be a tragedy.
Alshon Jeffery: After a mild start to the season, Alshon is finally cashing in on the emergence of Carson Wentz as a top tier QB. He has 146 yards and 3 TDs over his last 2 games. The Eagles are playing the Cowboys this week – division games are always tough, but the Cowboys aren’t exactly a scary defense, especially without Sean Lee, who is out this week. Carson Wentz is going to tear them up, and Alshon Jeffery is going to come along for the ride.
Kenyan Drake: I’m going to tweak a simple formula that I used earlier in the year to break Kenyan Drake’s week down: Hot RB + Awful QB + Good Matchup = an opportunity for a lot of touches and a good week on the ground. Kenyan will stay hot this week against the ‘Bucs.
Week 11 Duds:
Dak Prescott: Our first look at the ‘Boys without Zeke and Tyron Smith was ugly. No part of the team looked good, and the passing game wasn’t able to step up and carry the load. The Cowboys desperately need to figure things out on offense, but this week isn’t the week they do. Them Cowboys are playing the Eagles this week, who are playing as well as any team in the league. Don’t be shocked if Dak puts up a dud again this week.
Kelvin Benjamin: When Benjamin was traded to the Bills, we knew he was going to be a matchup-dependent receiver. Now that Tyrod Taylor has been benched, Benjamin becomes even more risky, even in a good matchup. This week is a mediocre matchup against the Chargers, and Benjamin is still nothing more than a gamble fill in – stay away unless you’re desperate.
Jared Goff: Goff has been one of the many young QBs having a lot of success this year. The problem with his success is that it has come almost exclusively against poor defenses. If he’s playing a poor defense, he is a must-start. However, his Week 11 matchup, the Minnesota Vikings, are far from a poor defense. They have risen to the top of the league, with elite playmakers at every level. Goff is going to continue to stick to his patterns and struggle against the Vikings this week.
Jared Goff 2017 Splits:
vs. Bad DEFs (IND, SF, NYG, HOU):
Passer Rating: 138
Avg Fantasy Pts: 24
vs. Good DEFs (JAX, SEA, WSH, ARI):
Passer Rating: 70
Avg Fantasy Pts: 12
— Sam Walczak (@SJW284) November 16, 2017