The short answer to that question is yes, yes Winter is by far the grittiest month. The reason this question is being posed in the first place is because we in the northern states are currently getting fisted by Winter even though we are technically over a week into Spring. Winter is scratching and clawing well out of its jurisdiction for every inch it can. Winter is the Matthew Dellavedova of seasons. Diving for loose balls on the floor. Playing lockdown D. Not letting Spring get any unearned space towards the basket. Winter has a wide base in the paint, boxing Spring out of any rebounds on both ends of the floor. Winter is at the bottom of every post-fumble dogpile this side of the Mason Dixon line. Winter is the late round pick that the coaching staff just can’t ignore any longer. It’s worked its ass off in the off-season workouts, routinely making the sexier, more talented seasons look foolish in practice. At first the coaches could write it off as the high drafted seasons of Summer and Spring simply having off days. Winter wanted it more in practice, sure, but when the games counted, the talent of the warmer seasons would shine through. Not the case. Continue reading Freelance Friday: Is Winter the Grittiest Season?
My Model Monday: NBA Draft Scouting Text Analysis
With March Madness just wrapping up, the natural next step in the basketball calendar is to turn to the NBA Draft. At Model 284, we have created a number of different models projecting college basketball players in the NBA; these include: our Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) which attempts to predict overall NBA ability on a scale of 0-100, Similarity Scores that capture style of play, and lastly, a Role Probability Model which puts a probability that each player ends up in a certain role in the NBA (All-Star, Starter/Sixth Man, Bench, or out of the league). One idea which has come up repeatedly in our draft analysis is incorporating scouting or subjective analysis into our draft models. Rather than using a rubric of someone’s scouting grades, I wanted to do a text analysis of scouting reports already written. Since DraftExpress recently folded and moved to the dark side with ESPN Insider (probably a smart business decision), I used NBADraft.net. Continue reading My Model Monday: NBA Draft Scouting Text Analysis
Model 284 Podcast: Final Four and Coach Koz Interview
On the fourth episode of the Model 284 Podcast, we dig into our model’s predictions for the final four and we are joined by St. Olaf Men’s Basketball Coach Dan Kosmoski to talk all things basketball, including his perspective on how the game has changed over the years, his coaching strategies, and more.
Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2
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Final Four Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for Final Four games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
- 2018 Elite 8 Predictions
- 2018 Sweet 16 Predictions
- Recap of Model Performance in 2017
- Historical Model Performance and Brackets
- Background on Win Probability Models
Continue reading Final Four Predictions | March Madness 2018
My Model Monday: Biggest March Madness Upsets
This year’s NCAA tournament brought some crazy upsets, including the first-ever 9 vs. 11 Elite Eight matchup and first ever 16 seed to win a game, which is being talked about as one of the biggest upsets in sports history. In today’s My Model Monday, I see if the numbers back up that claim, or if there are other dogs that give UMBC a run for their money, and see if there is anything we can learn from the teams that won. Continue reading My Model Monday: Biggest March Madness Upsets
Elite 8 Predictions | March Madness
The article below provides our predictions for Elite 8 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
Model 284 Podcast: Sweet 16 Matchups
In the third episode of the Model 284 Podcast, Sam Walczak and Marc Richards recap this past weekend of madness, go through our models’ predictions for the Sweet 16 matchups, and cover our probabilities for each team moving forward in the tournament.
Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2
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My Model Monday: Are You Beating the Model?
The first weekend of March Madness 2018 is in the books, and it was wild. When all was said and done, the same number of 11-seeds made the Sweet 16 as 1-seeds. Half of teams seeded 1-3 were knocked out in these first two rounds. And of course, the tournament saw a 1-seed exit in the first round for the first time ever (at least in the men’s tournament). It’s hard to imagine anyone’s bracket coming out of a weekend like this looking good. How bad was it? I dug into Model 284’s own March Madness contest to find out.
Continue reading My Model Monday: Are You Beating the Model?
Sweet 16 Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for all Sweet 16 games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:
Round 2 Predictions | March Madness 2018
The article below provides our predictions for all 2nd Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles: