Throughout the playoffs, Model 284 is making predictions using our PML model. You can find a brief overview of the model here and a full methodology here.

Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

The Cubs may have been a little underwhelming this season following their championship run, but these teams are fairly evenly matched nonetheless. The model gives their offenses nearly identical scores, and their pitching staffs are fairly similar as well. We have the home team pegged as the favorite in every game. In fact, for every game except game 2, our model’s favorite would flip if home field advantage were flipped. Game 2 is the exception; the model likes Gio Gonzalez a lot and isn’t too impressed with Jon Lester. Note that for some of the later games, I’m making guesses about the pitching matchups, especially due to Max Scherzer’s injury. We have Washington as slight favorites, but all of this hinges on Scherzer’s health. If his injury lingers or affects his performance, it could be a big blow to the Nationals’ chances. But the model doesn’t know about any of that, and it gives the Nationals a 57% chance to advance.

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

Game 4

Game 5

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

This is the biggest toss-up of all of the division series matchups. The model loves Arizona’s rotation—especially Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke. Problem for the D-backs is, the model loves Clayton Kershaw even more. Arizona had to burn both Greinke and Ray to get past the Rockies, leaving it up to Taijuan Walker to face Kershaw in game 1. The model is super high on the Dodgers in this game. If Kershaw can put his playoff struggles in the past, this is a big opportunity for Los Angeles to ride a pitching mismatch to an early series lead. Greinke and Ray give the Diamondbacks a good chance in two of the middle three games, but if the series goes to five games, the Diamondbacks will have to beat Kershaw at home. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks have a decent shot at advancing on the power of their Paul Goldschmidt- and J.D. Martinez-led offense. Ultimately, our model gives the Dodgers a 54% chance to make a repeat NLCS appearance.

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

Game 4

Game 5