Welcome, once again, to the Week 5 edition of the Model 284 Friday Fantasy Preview. If you are looking for a blend of numbers and subjectivity to help guide your lineup, then this is the right place for you.
Player Notes From Week 5
Todd Gurley: If you haven’t read my thoughts on Gurley long term, you can check it out here. I’m updating you because despite the big week last week, my opinion of him long term doesn’t change. He is clearly capable of being an elite back against sub-par defenses. The problem is he hasn’t played a single good defense all year. I will continue to stick with my advice of selling high at elite value to someone desperate. Get multiple high-potential players in return and bring stability to your team.
Waiver Wire RBs: Due to injury, there are a ton of worthwhile RBs being added like crazy across the fantasy football world. All RBs for Seattle and Minnesota, as well as the Packers’ Aaron Jones are must adds for any team hurting at that position. If I had to bet on one of these players to pay off in the end, it would have to be Latavius Murray. I know he has looked like absolute trash this year in Minnesota, but with the improvement along the offensive line, the suddenly dangerous passing attack, and the threat of returning to the form he showed the last few years, he could pay off big time this year.
Week 5 Studs
Carson Wentz: Wentz is coming back to earth after a hot start to his sophomore season. Despite the moderate drop off, Wentz is still a top 10 QB to this point in the year. This week his Eagles will be taking on the Cardinals. Although Arizona is home to one of the scariest cornerbacks in the league in Patrick Peterson, you may be surprised to know that they are currently our 6th worst team in our FPAE rankings against QBs. This is one of the main reasons that our QB scoring projection model has Wentz ranked as QB7 this week. If you’re looking for a bye week fill-in, you won’t do better than Wentz.
Pierre Garcon/Carlos Hyde: Garcon has had an up-and-down year, but remains the only viable option in a weak 49ers receiving core. Although he has failed to find the end zone thus far, Garcon is averaging a solid 12.1 PPR points per game. This week against the Colts weak defense, he will have a perfect opportunity to finally hit pay dirt. Speaking of the garbage that Indianapolis calls a defense; they are allowing 4.6 points above expectation to RBs over the last 7 games. That opens the door for another 49er to make an impact. Carlos Hyde has been solid in every game this year, is currently a top 10 fantasy RB, and the Colts will be the worst defense he has seen all year.
DeVante Parker: This pure deep threat receiver has been solid this year, putting up at least 12 PPR points in each of his 3 games. Although he hasn’t played against any above average defenses this year, Parker will be getting the worst of the worst this week when the Titans come to town. Tennessee has allowed 12.4 FPAE to WRs over their last 7 games (3.1 more than any other team). There is not much room for interpretation around that. Get ready for Parker to have his way.
Week 5 Duds
Sammy Watkins/Jared Goff: Jared Goff has surprised this year as a low-end starting QB and the league leader in yards per attempt. Despite the success from Goff, Watkins has only one good game through his first four. The Rams have had it easy so far this year, playing one of the easiest schedules to this point. This week they will be playing the Seattle defense that, although it isn’t what it once was, is still one of the best in the league. This duo isn’t ready to hold up against top tier competition. You shouldn’t be starting Goff, and Watkins only makes it into your lineup if you’re desperate.
Tyreek Hill: Much like Garcon, Tyreek Hill has had an up and down year. Unlike Garcon, he has a very difficult matchup. Going into Houston is a tough matchup for any receiver, especially a bang or bust player like Hill. Unless he can make a big play, its unlikely he will get much done against a top 10 defense in FPAE against WRs. Chances are the Chiefs are going to put this game on the backs of their elite TE and breakout rookie running back. If you are strong enough at WR to find other options, you may want to exercise them this week.
Amari Cooper: The drop monster got a hold of Cooper and isn’t letting go. While dropping an astronomical amount of balls this year, Amari has been practically non-existent since Week 1. Long term I would expect him to return to form, but as long as E.J. Manuel is at QB it isn’t going to be soon. Baltimore has improved against the pass over the off-season, and should be equipped to handle this struggling Raider Offense. Play Coop at your own risk this week.